Recovery Or Bust? Pressure Test For Australia's Airlines This Weekend

恢复还是破产？澳大利亚航空公司本周末面临压力测试

A report by Australia's competition watchdog confirms what passengers stuck in long airport queues already know - the Australian domestic airline industry is approaching a full recovery. More people are traveling, and planes are filling up. Demand for leisure travel was the primary driver of the recovery, although business travel is picking up. Fares are also increasing, driven mainly by some of the highest jet fuel prices on record.

澳大利亚竞争监督机构的一份报告证实澳大利亚国内航空业正接近全面复苏，对此困于机场长队之中的旅客早已深有体会。随着出行人数的增加，各大航班更是座无虚席。尽管商务旅行呈现回暖态势，但休闲旅游才是推动复苏的主要驱动力。受喷气燃料的极端高价影响，机票价格也在不断上涨。

Long queues today attest to Australia's domestic airline industry recovery

今日长队证明澳大利亚国内航空业已复苏

This week the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) released its latest quarterly findings from monitoring Australia's domestic air passenger transport services. The report provides a handy snapshot, and some hard data, on the state of health of Australia's domestic airline sector.

本周，澳大利亚竞争和消费者委员会(ACCC)发布了对澳大利亚国内航空客运服务的最新季度监测结果。该报告就澳大利亚国内航空业现状进行了简要说明并予以可靠数据支撑。

"Over 4.5 million passengers traveled in April 2022, representing 89% of passengers who flew pre-COVID-19," the report says. "While the industry was grateful for the long-awaited return of passengers, workforce shortages and staff absences due to COVID-19 isolation requirements led to significant operational challenges for the entire industry. As a result, frustration ensued at airports as passengers had to face long queues and delays."

该报告表示，“2022年4月有超过450万的旅客出行，出行人数占新冠肺炎疫情前航空旅客总数的89%”，“面对期待已久的旅客回归，航空业自是感激不已，但受新冠肺炎疫情隔离政策的影响，劳动力短缺严重，员工也很难及时到岗，整个行业都面临着极大的运营挑战。也正因如此，在机场排长队以及航班延误都成了家常便饭，旅客情绪整体低迷”。

Those queues and delays are repeating at major airports around Australia again on Friday, with big queues reported at airports like Sydney (SYD) as travelers queue out the terminal doors to check in for flights ahead of the Queen's birthday long weekend. Sydney Airport expects 80,000 people to move through it on Friday, while Melbourne Airport (MEL) anticipates handling 97,000 passengers. This weekend is the second holiday period in two years (following the April Easter holiday period) Australians have been free to move around the country or in and out of the country.

周五，澳大利亚枢纽机场再次出现排队和航班延误的现象。据报道，悉尼机场等多家机场内依然是长队如龙。时值女王生日长周末前夕，办理登机手续的旅客甚至都已排到了航站楼门外。悉尼机场预计周五客流量将达8万人次，而墨尔本机场（MEL）预计将接待9.7万名旅客。这个周末是这两年以来，澳大利亚人可以自由进行境内外旅行的第二个假期（第一个是4月的复活节假期）。

What the ACCC is seeing across Australia's airline industry

ACCC对澳大利亚航空业的看法

The ACCC report highlighted five key trends over the last few months; (i) the busy Easter holiday period pushed the Australian domestic airline industry towards a full recovery, (ii) more domestic passengers have a greater choice of airlines to fly on, (iii) discount fares bottomed out in April but are now rising due to fuel costs, (iv) Qantas' proposal to become the owner of Alliance Airlines has sparked concerns within the ACCC, and (v) after losing the number one position to Virgin Australia in January, Qantas once again has the highest market share of any domestic airline in Australia.

ACCC在报告中特别指出了过去数月中航空业的五大趋势：（1）繁忙的复活节假期推动了澳大利亚国内航空业的全面复苏；（2）更多国内旅客有着更为广泛的航空公司选择；（3）4月份的折扣票价最低，但受燃油费用影响，目前正在涨价；（4）澳洲航空公司（Qantas，下文简称澳航）计划收购澳洲联盟航空公司（Alliance Airlines）引发了ACCC的担忧；（5）今年1月，维珍澳洲航空（Virgin Australia）力压澳航，坐上了澳大利亚国内航空公司的头把交椅；而今，澳航再度成为澳大利亚国内航空公司中拥有最高市场份额的航空公司。

"While capacity peaked at Easter, the airlines are anticipating a sustained domestic recovery. Virgin Australia reported back in April that it expects to recover to 100% by June 2022, noting high demand for resources and contract flying. The Qantas Group had expected to fly around 107% of pre-COVID-19 capacity in July and August, but this was recently revised to 103% in response to high fuel prices," says the ACCC report.

ACCC报告称，“尽管运力在复活节已达到峰值，但航空公司预计国内航空业将持续复苏。维珍澳洲航空早在今年4月便预计其运力将在2022年6月恢复至100%，并表示对资源和合约飞行具有很高需求。澳洲航空集团（Qantas Group）早前预计其运力将在7月和8月恢复至疫情前的107%，但受高昂油价影响，最近又将该数据修正为103%。”

Increased demand encourages airlines to commit to more planes

需求高涨促使航空公司购买更多飞机

The uptick in passenger numbers has prompted Australia's airlines to open their checkbooks and bring in more planes. The blockbuster order recently came from Qantas, who gave Project Sunrise the green light and ordered a dozen Airbus A350-1000ULRs. Qantas also signed for 20 Airbus A321XLRs and 20 Airbus A220-300s, with options for 94 more.

面对日益增长的旅客数量，澳大利亚的航空公司不得不打开腰包，购买更多的飞机。澳航最近订购了12架空客A350-1000ULR，这一重磅订单无疑为“日出项目（Project Sunrise）”大开绿灯。不仅如此，该公司还购入了20架空客A321XLR和20架空客A220-300，另有94架飞机可供选择。

That overshadowed news out of the Virgin Australia camp they'd be bringing in four MAX 8s from February 2023 ahead of a larger MAX order of 25 MAX 10s. Regional Express (Rex) expects to land its seventh Boeing 737-800 shortly, while Bonza is eyeing its first MAX 8 arriving in July ahead of its planned start of operations circa September. If all goes well for Bonza, they'll become the first Australian operator of MAX aircraft.

而这一举措不禁令维珍澳洲航空的计划黯然失色。据悉，维珍澳洲航空计划于2023年2月购入4架波音B737 MAX 8，之后还将追加25架波音737 MAX 10的订单。区域快线航空（Rex）的第7架波音737-800亦将在短期内投入使用。博扎航空（Bonza）将于7月迎来其首架波音737 MAX 8，并将在9月左右开始运营。如果一切顺利的话，博扎航空将成为澳大利亚首家运营波音737 MAX的航空公司。

Things would be going even better for the airlines if high fuel costs weren't cutting into their revenues. Jet fuel is a substantial cost item for airlines. Before the pandemic, the ACCC reports it accounted for a little under a quarter of Qantas' and Virgin's total costs and about 14% of Rex's total costs.

如若不是高昂的燃油费用影响了航空公司的收入，那么整体情况将更加可观。喷气燃料是航空公司的一个重要成本项目。据ACCC报告，疫情以前的喷气燃料成本约占澳航和维珍澳洲航空总成本的四分之一，区域快线航空总成本的14%。

"The airlines have acknowledged that increases in jet fuel prices are impacting their operations. Virgin's CEO Jayne Hrdlicka said in April that airfares will go up as airlines contend with higher fuel costs and customer demand bounces back," the ACCC report notes. "The Qantas Group previously reported that its hedging position protected it from the recent oil price increase. Qantas later said that it will respond to the high fuel prices by reducing capacity over July and August 2022 and increasing fares."

ACCC报告指出，“航空公司承认燃油价格上涨已经影响到了公司运营。维珍首席执行官杰恩·赫德利卡（Jayne Hrdlicka）曾在4月表示，随着燃油价格的飙涨以及顾客需求的回升，航空公司不得不上调机票价格”，“澳洲航空集团此前报告称，他们所采取的对冲头寸策略可保护其免受最近油价上涨的影响。澳洲航空公司随后表示，为了应对高昂油价，他们将在2022年7月和8月削减运力，并提高机票价格”。

The ACCC takes a keen interest in Qantas

ACCC特别关注澳航

Australia's biggest airline Qantas took up a lot of the ACCC's time in the last quarter, perhaps not unsurprisingly given its market dominance. Qantas wants to take full ownership of Brisbane-based Alliance Airlines (Qantas already owns just under 20% of the airline), which sparked competition concerns at the ACCC. The ACCC is currently reviewing the proposal.

作为澳大利亚最大的航空公司，澳航一直是ACCC上个季度的关注重点，而鉴于其在市场上的主导地位，这也许并不奇怪。澳航希望取得总部位于布里斯班的联盟航空公司的全部股权（当前澳航已经拥有联盟航空公司近20%的股份），这引发了ACCC对竞争的担忧。ACCC目前正在审查该提案。

Rex's ongoing stoush with Qantas spilled over into the ACCC when the Rex lodged a series of complaints about Qantas misusing its market power on certain routes. In the last quarter, the ACCC ended its investigation with no adverse findings against Qantas. And while you win some, you also lose some. Qantas has been charging passengers wanting to use a credit voucher a higher fare than passengers paying with cards or cash. Complaints have flooded into the ACCC. Qantas isn't off the hook for that yet.

区域快线航空与澳洲航空本就积怨深厚，而此次战火甚至蔓延到了ACCC之中：区域快线航空向ACCC发起一系列投诉，指责澳洲航空在某些航线上滥用市场势力。上季度中，ACCC结束了对澳航的调查，并无不良发现。正所谓，有赢必有输。澳航一直向使用赊购代金券的旅客收取比使用信用卡或现金的旅客更高的票价，导致大量投诉涌入ACCC。澳航还未能摆脱这一困境。

Lessons learned from the Easter holiday fiasco

从复活节惨败中吸取的教训

This is all background color and movement for passengers flying around Australia this weekend. Sydney Airport is expecting over 700 flight movements on Friday - this time two years the airport was struggling to attract a fifth of that number. The crowds are around the domestic terminals rather than the international terminal. But early reports suggest the situation is being better managed today than over Easter. The queues are long, but airport and airline staff are pulling people to the front as flight departure times near, and most, if not all, security lanes are now fully staffed and open. If this holiday weekend goes off without any major hitches, it will give Australia's resurgent domestic airline industry another shot in the arm.

这就是本周澳大利亚航空业的主要动向了。悉尼机场预计周五将有超过700架次航班起降，而两年前该机场还在为吸引该数量的五分之一而苦恼。目前旅客主要聚集于国内航站楼，而非国际航站楼。但是早前有报告表明，今天的情况比复活节假期要好。虽然今天的队伍依然很长，但在临近航班起飞时刻时，机场和航空公司的工作人员会把旅客带到前面，另外今天绝大多数的安全通道都已开放，且人员配备充足。如果这个周末假期没有任何重大事故发生，那么这将为澳大利亚国内航空业的复苏注入又一剂强心针。