欧洲化工业面临艰难一年
Europe's chemical industry faces a tough year
近2周以来，受欧洲地缘政治局势影响，全球股市和大宗商品市场动荡不安，油气市场出现剧烈波动，化工行业自然不能独善其身。目前，欧洲化工业界正在密切关注事态造成的影响，并着手应对高能源价格带来的影响。
In the past two weeks, due to the geopolitical situation in Europe, global stock markets and commodity markets have been in turmoil, and the oil and gas markets have experienced violent fluctuations. Naturally, the chemical industry can not be left alone. At present, the European chemical industry is paying close attention to the impact of events and set about to deal with the impact of high energy prices.
油气市场动荡不安
Oil and gas markets are volatile
受地缘政治局势影响，国际油价和欧洲天然气价格剧烈震荡。3月7日当日，布伦特原油期货价格一度突破130美元/桶，刷新2008年以来新高。同日，荷兰天然气期货价格一度达到345欧元/兆瓦时。不过，3月8日，欧洲油气价格就显著回落。截至当地时间3月10日，纽约轻质原油期货价格为106.02美元/桶，布伦特原油期货价格为每桶109.33美元，荷兰天然气期货价格报133欧元/兆瓦时，均较3月7日的高值显著回落，但仍远高于去年同期的价格。
Affected by the geopolitical situation, international oil prices and European natural gas prices volatile. On March 7th Brent Crude briefly topped $130 a barrel, its highest level since 2008. On the same day, Dutch gas futures briefly traded at $345 per megawatt hour. On March 8th, however, European oil and gas prices fell back sharply. New York light crude was trading at $106.02 a barrel as of March 10 local time, Brent Crude was trading at $109.33 a barrel and Dutch gas was trading at $133 a megawatt hour, both are down significantly from their March 7 highs, but still well above their year-ago levels.
油气市场的后市走向不明朗。除与地缘政治局势密切相关外，还有多种因素正在影响油气价格。当地时间3月8日，美国宣布禁止进口俄罗斯的石油、天然气能源。随后，英国也表示将在今年年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的石油和石油产品，并给市场和企业足够的时间来寻找俄罗斯原油的替代产品。欧盟多国也明确表示，将努力使其能源来源多元化，年内就要减少购买2/3的俄罗斯天然气。据相关统计数据显示，截至2021年，俄罗斯的石油消费量占全球的11%，天然气消费量占全球的17%，天然气消费量占西欧的40%。显然，至少在短期之内，欧洲多国难以放弃俄罗斯油气，能源多元化的尝试将在短期之内影响下游市场。凯投宏观市场经济学家奥利弗·艾伦表示，未来的油气价格将取决于地缘政治冲突进展等因素，不确定性很多，可能将在更长时间内保持高位。
The outlook for the oil and gas market is uncertain. In addition to the geopolitical situation closely related, there are a number of factors are affecting oil and gas prices. On March 8, local time, the United States announced a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas energy. The UK then said it would phase out imports of Russian oil and oil products by the end of the year, giving markets and companies time to find alternatives to Russian crude. Many EU countries have also made it clear that they will try to diversify their energy sources by buying two-thirds less Russian gas this year. By 2021, Russia accounted for 11% of global oil consumption, 17% of global gas consumption and 40% of western Europe's. It is clear that, at least in the short term, it will be difficult for many European countries to give up on Russian oil and gas, and that attempts to diversify will affect downstream markets in the short term. Future oil and gas prices will depend on factors such as the progress of geopolitical conflicts, said Oliver Ellen, macro market economist at Capital Economics.
石化品价格上涨
Rise in Petrochemical Prices
油气价格的动荡让下游的欧洲化工行业受到很大影响，主要的化工咨询机构均在密切关注事态进展。
Volatile oil and gas prices have had a major impact on the downstream European chemical industry, with major chemical advisory bodies monitoring the situation closely.
ICIS分析师Ajay Parmar表示，由于油价上涨幅度大，速度快，可能导致欧洲以石脑油为基础的石化企业利润率迅速下降。另外，由于欧洲能源价格上涨加剧通胀，欧洲市场对于消费品的需求也会下降，这也会打击欧洲化工行业。3月2日，欧洲石脑油原料价格已升至941欧元/吨以上，为近十年来最高水平，较上月上涨约75欧元/吨。欧洲3月份乙烯和丙烯合同结算价也创下历史新高，乙烯价格为1435欧元/吨，丙烯价格为1450欧元/吨，均较上月上涨95欧元/吨，这反映了原料成本和裂解经济性上升压力。报告指出，由于原料成本显著上升，石脑油价格欧洲2月份石脑油裂解平均生产成本增加了160欧元/吨。
Ajay Parmar, an analyst at ICIS, said the sharp rise in oil prices could lead to a sharp fall in profit margins for Europe's naphtha-based petrochemical companies. In addition, European demand for consumer goods will fall as higher energy prices in Europe fuel inflation, which will also hit the European chemical industry. On March 2, European naphtha prices rose above $941 a tonne, the highest level in nearly a decade, up about $75 a tonne from the previous month. European contract settlement prices for ethylene and propylene also hit a record high in March, with ethylene prices at 1,435 euros per ton and propylene prices at 1,450 euros per ton, both up 95 euros per ton from the previous month, this reflects the rising cost of raw materials and pressure on the economics of cracking. The report noted that the average cost of naphtha cracking production in Europe increased by 160 euros per ton in February due to a significant increase in feedstock costs.
其他化学品方面，芳烃合同价格同样受到成本压力的推动，只有苯乙烯3月合同价格波动较小，仅攀升到2021年5月的水平。产业链下游，环氧乙烷、丙酮和丙烯腈最近合同结算价也已随上游价格上涨。
For other chemicals, aromatics contract prices were also driven by cost pressures, with the exception of styrene, which fluctuated less in March and climbed only to 2021 levels. In the lower reaches of the industrial chain, the recent contract settlement prices for Oxirane, acetone and acrylonitrile have risen in tandem with those in the upper reaches.
Parmar表示，即使仅考虑供应中断，对欧洲的化工业影响也不容小觑。目前欧洲对俄罗斯的制裁正在影响匈牙利、斯洛伐克、捷克、波兰和德国的石化产品生产。ICIS的数据预测，2022年，原本应有279万吨乙烯(占欧洲总产能的11%)和234万吨丙烯(占欧洲总产能的12%)生产依赖于位于俄罗斯经乌克兰通向欧洲的“友谊”管道，但目前该管道已经中断。此外，天然气供应的减少也会影响欧洲的合成氨以及下游化肥行业。
Parmar says the impact on Europe's chemical industry, even if only in terms of supply disruptions, should not be underestimated. European sanctions against Russia are affecting petrochemical production in Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany. The ICIS data predicts that by 2022, production of 2.79 m tonnes of ethylene (11 per cent of total European capacity-RRB- and 2.34 m tonnes of propylene (12 per cent of toEuropeanpean capacity) would have depended on the "friendship" pipeline fRussiassiaEuroperope Ukraineaine, but the pipeline has been shut down. In addition, the reduction of natural gas supply will also affect Europe's synthetic ammonia and downstream fertilizer industry.
IHS Markit全球经济服务中心则报告称，能源价格上涨将损害欧洲的商业情绪，尤其是不断增加的不确定性将打击商业信心，制约投资。IHS Markit称，欧洲在后疫情时期的经济复苏过程中，投资增长一直滞后，刚刚显示出改善的迹象，就因为地缘政治局势遭到打击。
The IHS Markit Centre for global economic services reported that higher energy prices would hurt business sentiment in Europe, particularly as increasing uncertainty would weigh on business confidence and constrain investment. According to IHS Markit, investment growth in Europe has been lagging in the post-epidemic recovery, just showing signs of improvement as the geopolitical situation takes a hit.
化企忧心供应影响
Chemical companies worried about supply impact
目前，由于欧洲对俄罗斯的制裁必然会造成俄罗斯的供应减少，欧洲化企均在忧心原料供应问题。不过，石脑油和天然气的供应问题并不相同。
At present, because of European sanctions against Russia will inevitably result in Russian supply reduction, European chemical companies are worried about the supply of raw materials. But the supply problem is not the same for naphtha and natural gas.
巴斯夫首席财务官汉斯—乌尔里希·恩格尔表示，巴斯夫20%~30%的石脑油供应来自俄罗斯，假如出现供应中断的情况，石脑油将可以快速找到替代供应商，但天然气不可以。
Hans Ulrich Ernst Engel, BASF's chief financial officer, says that 20% to 30% of the company's naphtha supply comes from Russia, and if supply is disrupted, it could quickly find an alternative supplier, but not natural gas.
恩格尔承认，寻找俄罗斯天然气的替代品，并不像巴斯夫替代石脑油供应那么容易。恩格尔表示：“巴斯夫不直接从俄罗斯接收任何石油和天然气。其路德维希港基地只接受西欧供应商的供应。但是，这些供应商肯定会从俄罗斯获得天然气供应，比例未知。”
Ernst Engel admits that finding alternatives to Russian gas is not as easy as replacing naphtha supplies in BASF. "BASF does not receive any oil and gas directly from Russia," Ernst Engel said. Its Ludwigshafen only accepts supplies from Western European suppliers. "but these suppliers will definitely get gas from Russia in an unknown proportion."
此外，恩格尔表示，高昂的天然气价格已经对巴斯夫的业绩造成了不利的影响。根据巴斯夫的财报数据，由于天然气价格高企，该公司在去年第四季度成本增加8亿欧元。
In addition, Ernst Engel said high gas prices had had a negative impact on BASF's results. BASF added $800M to its costs in the fourth quarter of last year because of high gas prices, according to the company's results./n/n
对于2022年的市场行情，巴斯夫预计，继2021年强劲复苏之后，2022年全球经济增长3.8%，将较为温和。由于工业订单积压很高，巴斯夫预计全球工业生产将增长3.8%，化工生产将增长3.5%。但是，这个预测是建立在布伦特原油的平均油价为75美元/桶的基础上的。
For 2022, BASF expects global growth of 3.8% to be moderate, following a strong recovery in 2021. BASF expects global industrial production to grow by 3.8 per cent and chemical production by 3.5 per cent due to a high backlog of industrial orders. But that estimate is based on an average oil price of $75 a barrel for Brent Crude.
