激烈党争或引爆美国“债务炸弹”

Fierce party struggle or detonation of US "debt bomb"

图为美国财政部大楼。新华社记者 刘 杰摄

The picture shows the US Treasury Building. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie photo

近期，美国债务违约风险不断逼近，民主、共和两党就债务上限问题展开的博弈却未见降温。

Recently, the risk of United States debt default is approaching, and the game between the Democratic and Republican parties on the debt ceiling has not cooled down.

美国智库两党政策研究中心近日警告称，如果国会不采取行动提高联邦政府债务上限，美国可能在6月初便将面临前所未有的债务违约。国际货币基金组织第一副总裁戈皮纳特指出，美国政府陷入债务上限危机将加大政府信用评级被下调的风险，这将给美国和全球其他经济体带来额外风险。

United States Bipartisan Center for Policy Studies has warned that the United States could face an unprecedented debt default in early June if Congress does not act to raise the federal government's debt ceiling. IMF First Vice President Gopinath pointed out that the United States government's debt ceiling crisis would increase the risk of a downgrade of the government's credit rating, which would pose additional risks to the U.S. and other economies around the world.

违约警报拉响 两党博弈升级

The default alarm sounded the two-party game escalation

近期，美国两党围绕债务上限问题的争论僵持不下。据外媒报道，众议院共和党议员提议，如果国会未能提高联邦债务上限，则要求美国财政部优先偿付公众持有的政府债务。民主党议员反对这一做法，呼吁无条件提高或暂停债务上限。

Recently, the United States around the debt ceiling debate between the two parties stalemate. According to foreign media reports, House Republicans have proposed that if Congress fails to raise the federal debt ceiling, the United States Treasury Department should be required to prioritize government debt held by the public. Democratic lawmakers opposed the move, calling for an unconditional increase or suspension of the debt ceiling.

民主、共和两党博弈的背后，是美国再次拉响的债务违约警报。近年来，美国政府财政支出规模不断扩大，债务规模水涨船高。

Behind the game between the Democratic and Republican parties is the renewed alarm of debt default in the United States. In recent years, the scale of United States government fiscal expenditure has been expanding, and the scale of debt has risen.

今年1月，美国联邦政府债务规模达到31.4万亿美元的法定债务上限。美国财政部采取“特别措施”以避免政府债务违约。法国《回声报》报道称：“自那时以来，美国财政部一直在使用会计手段继续支付公务员工资、社会福利以及现有债务的利息。但美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦警告说，如果在夏季之前不提高债务上限，她的‘创可贴就要用光了’。”

In January, United States federal government 's debt reached the legal debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. The United States Treasury Department took "extraordinary measures" to avoid a government debt default. The France newspaper Les Echos reported: "Since then, the United States Treasury has been using accounting techniques to continue paying civil servants 'salaries, social benefits, and interest on existing debt." But United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that her 'Band-Aid will run out' if the debt ceiling is not raised by summer."

2月，美国总统拜登曾与众议院议长麦卡锡就提高债务上限问题举行会谈，但双方并未达成一致。此后，随着两党政治斗争愈演愈烈，双方始终无法就提高债务上限的议案达成协议。

In February, President Joe Biden held talks with House Speaker McCarthy on raising the debt ceiling, but the two sides did not reach an agreement. Since then, as the political battle between the two parties has intensified, the two sides have been unable to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

债务上限是美国国会为联邦政府设定的为履行已产生的支付义务而举债的最高额度。触及这条“红线”，意味着美国财政部借款授权用尽。逼近债务上限时，美国政府通常会采取一些手段来避免债务违约：其一，提高债务上限，1997年至2022年，美国共提高债务上限22次；其二，暂停债务上限，为债务上限上调或偿还债务争取时间；其三，采取“特别措施”，如暂停财政部对联邦雇员退休储蓄计划、暂停非流通债务发行、宣布“债务发行”暂停期等。

The debt ceiling is the maximum amount United States Congress sets for the federal government to borrow to meet the payment obligations it has incurred. Touching this "red line" means that the United States Treasury's borrowing authority is exhausted. When approaching the debt ceiling, the United States government typically takes a number of steps to avoid default:First, raise the debt ceiling. From 1997 to 2022, the United States raised the debt ceiling 22 times.Second, suspend the debt ceiling to buy time for raising the debt ceiling or repaying debts;Third, take "special measures", such as suspending the Treasury's retirement savings plan for federal employees, suspending the issuance of non-negotiable debt, announcing the suspension period of "debt issuance", etc.

专家指出，债务上限本质上是美国政府的自我设限。自1979年出现债务技术性违约后，美国再未发生债务违约。不过，近年来，随着美国党争日趋激烈，债务上限逐渐变成两党政治博弈的筹码，成为扰乱全球金融市场的潜在风险。

Experts point out that the debt ceiling is essentially a self-imposed limit by the United States government. The United States has not defaulted on its debt since a technical default in 1979. However, in recent years, as the party struggle in the United States has become increasingly fierce, the debt ceiling has gradually become a bargaining chip in the political game between the two parties and a potential risk of disrupting global financial markets.

“当前，美国两党围绕债务上限问题角力激烈。尤其是在去年美国中期选举之后，共和党获得众议院多数席位，掌握了财权。拜登政府如果想继续提高债务上限，必须争取共和党的配合。而共和党以债务上限作为政治要价，迫使民主党在其他议题上让步，如大幅削减公共开支。美国两党陷入债务上限僵局，引发市场深切担忧。”中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长、研究员张茉楠在接受本报记者采访时分析称。

"The two parties in the United States are currently wrestling fiercely over the debt ceiling. Especially after last year's mid-term elections in the United States, the Republican Party won a majority in the House of Representatives and held financial power. If the Biden administration wants to continue raising the debt ceiling, it must win Republican cooperation. Republicans have used the debt ceiling as a political bargaining chip to force Democrats to make concessions on other issues, such as deep cuts in public spending. The debt ceiling standoff between the two parties in the United States has caused deep concern in the market." China Center for International Economic Exchanges US-European Research Deputy Minister, Researcher Zhang Monan in an interview with our reporter analysis said.

美元霸权作祟 惯于寅吃卯粮

The dollar hegemony is used to eating food

分析普遍认为，美国债务高企，根源在于美式民主导致的短视和财务缺乏自律。

The analysis generally believes that the high debt of the United States is rooted in the short-sightedness and lack of financial self-discipline caused by American democracy.

“近年来，美国联邦政府债务规模不断增加，多次出现逼近甚至达到债务上限的情况，已然成为一颗‘定时炸弹’。”美国耶鲁大学访问学者卞永祖向本报记者分析称，导致这一情况的原因主要有二：一方面，美国经济过度金融化的同时，实体经济越发“空心化”，美国财政收入下降。在此背景下，美国两党为了争取选票，迎合选民需求，多次选择减税和推动政府支出计划，寅吃卯粮，导致债务“滚雪球式”增长；另一方面，随着新兴经济体的崛起，美国经济的全球影响力呈现下降趋势，全球财富流向发生变化，逐渐从美国向东亚等地区聚集。过去一年，美国的经济情况看似不错，实际上是美国加大了对居民和企业的金融支持，进一步透支了其财政能力，国债发行和财政赤字都维持在高位。

"In recent years, the United States federal government debt has been increasing, and it has repeatedly approached or even reached the debt ceiling, which has become a 'time bomb'." Bian Yongzu, a visiting scholar at Yale University in the United States, told our reporter that there are two main reasons for this situation:On the one hand, while the United States economy is over-financialized, the real economy is becoming more and more "hollow", and the fiscal revenue of the United States declines. Against this background, in order to win votes and cater to voters 'needs, the two parties in the United States have repeatedly chosen to cut taxes and promote government spending plans, living beyond their means, resulting in a "snowballing" increase in debt;On the other hand, with the rise of emerging economies, the global influence of United States economy shows a downward trend, and the global wealth flow changes, gradually gathering from the United States to East Asia and other regions. In the past year, the economic situation of the United States seems to be good. In fact, the United States has increased its financial support to residents and enterprises, further overdrawing its financial capacity, and the issuance of national debt and the fiscal deficit have remained at a high level.

目前，美国两党都将糟糕的国家财政状况归咎于对方。共和党方面认为，两年来，拜登政府的巨额支出增加了国债。民主党方面则称，前总统特朗普和共和党人给企业和富人实施的减税措施让政府损失了超过2万亿美元的收入。

Right now, both parties in the United States blame each other for the nation 's dire fiscal situation. Republicans argue that the Biden administration 's huge spending over the past two years has increased the national debt. Democrats say tax cuts imposed by former President Trump and Republicans on businesses and the wealthy have cost the government more than $2 trillion in revenue.

《纽约时报》刊文指出，美国不断膨胀的债务是两党共同选择的结果。粗略测算，共和党人小布什、特朗普在任期间，债务共增加12.7万亿美元，而民主党人奥巴马、拜登在任期间债务共增加13万亿美元。

The new York Times pointed out that United States 's ballooning debt is the result of a bipartisan choice. Roughly, Republicans George W. Bush and Trump added $12.7 trillion in debt during their tenure, while Democrats Obama and Biden added $13 trillion.

以拜登政府为例，其上任以来，签署了《2021年美国新冠纾困救助法案》《2021年美国基建法案》《2022芯片与科技法案》等一系列巨额法案。分析认为，这直接导致不到两年时间债务违约的风险便再次压到美国头上。

Take the Biden administration, for example, since taking office, it has signed a series of huge bills such as the New Crown Bailout Act of 2021, the U.S. Infrastructure Act of 2021, and the Chip and Technology Act of 2022. According to the analysis, this directly led to the risk of debt default in less than two years, which once again weighed on the United States.

专家指出，美国政府之所以敢无节制支出，其背后支撑是美元霸权。

Experts point out that the reason why the United States government dares to spend unchecked is the dollar hegemony.

“长期以来，美元的国际货币地位助长了美国滥发钞票行为。美元本位制事实上已经演变为美国的债务本位制。美联储大规模量化宽松，实际是为债务融资，助长了美国政府债务的增加。”张茉楠分析称，目前，美国债务增速远超GDP增速，而且随着利率提高，还本付息的压力越来越大。尽管从中短期看，美国债务实质性违约概率不大，美国政府可以通过惯用手段，以提高债务上限的方式来缓解财政困境，但从长期看，美国政府债务不可持续，“以新债换旧债”的方式只会产生更多利息和更多借贷，陷入恶性循环。

"For a long time, the international currency status of the US dollar has encouraged the United States to issue excessive banknotes. The dollar standard has in fact evolved into the debt standard of the United States. The Fed's massive quantitative easing, which is actually financing debt, has contributed to the increase in United States government debt." Zhang Monan analysis said, At present, The United States debt growth rate far exceeds GDP growth rate, And as interest rates rise, The pressure to repay principal and interest is increasing. Although in the short and medium term, the probability of substantial default on United States debt is small, and the U.S. government can ease its fiscal predicament by raising the debt ceiling through customary means, in the long run, the U.S. government debt is unsustainable, and the "new debt for old debt" method will only generate more interest and more borrowing, falling into a vicious circle.

透支美国信用 冲击全球经济

Overdraft of United States Credit Impact on Global Economy

3月7日，美国国会参议院举行听证会，就债务上限及违约可能导致的后果展开讨论。与会金融界人士警告称，目前两党就债务上限展开的对峙对美国经济造成了“严重威胁”。一旦发生债务违约，将导致本就脆弱的经济立即进入衰退，上百万美国人失去工作，并引发类似2008年金融危机的灾难性后果。

On March 7, the United States Senate held a hearing to discuss the debt ceiling and the possible consequences of a default. The financial community at the meeting warned that the current bipartisan standoff over the debt ceiling posed a "serious threat" to the United States economy. A debt default would send an already fragile economy into an immediate recession, costing millions of United States their jobs and triggering catastrophic consequences similar to the 2008 financial crisis.

澳大利亚“对话”网站刊文称，美国债务违约威胁本身就会对经济产生影响。一个前车之鉴是，2021年8月美国债务违约的可能性引发了该国信用评级前所未有的下调，损害了美国的金融地位，也使无数人蒙受损失。

Australia's Dialogue website said the threat of a United States debt default would itself have an impact on the economy. One lesson is that the possibility of a United States debt default in August 2021 triggered an unprecedented downgrade of the country's credit rating, damaging the country's financial standing and costing countless people.

美国智库两党政策研究中心高级副主任蕾切尔·斯奈德曼指出，债务上限谈判僵持不下将导致美国国会无力出台刺激措施来避免经济陷入更深程度衰退。而美国经济放缓则可能削减联邦政府税收收入，从而进一步缩短提高债务上限的窗口期。

Rachel Snyderman, senior associate director of the Bipartisan Center for Policy Studies, United States think tank, said the deadlock in the debt ceiling negotiations would leave Congress unable to enact stimulus measures to avoid a deeper recession. And a slowing United States economy could cut federal tax revenues, further shortening the window for raising the debt ceiling.

“美国政府债台高筑不仅是美国自身的问题，还将导致全球金融市场动荡，给全球经济造成严重伤害，对新兴市场的溢出效应尤为剧烈。”张茉楠分析称，美国政府不断调整债务上限，实际是在不断透支美国的政治信用，削弱美国国债信誉和美元储备货币地位。去年以来，日本、法国、沙特、以色列等多国抛售大量美国国债，避险情绪明显。

"The high level of United States government debt is not only a problem for the United States itself, but will also lead to global financial market turmoil and cause serious harm to the global economy, with particularly dramatic spillover effects on emerging markets." Zhang Monan analysis said, The United States government constantly adjust the debt ceiling, In fact is constantly overdrawing the political credit of the United States, Weaken the credibility of U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar reserve currency status. Since last year, Japan, France, Saudi Arabia, Israel and other countries sold a large number of United States Treasury bonds, risk aversion is obvious.

根据美国国会预算办公室的预测，至2052年，公众持有的美国政府债务占GDP比重将达到185%，政府债务的净利息支出占GDP比重将高达7.2%。分析认为，届时，国际市场可能会严重质疑美国政府债务的可持续性以及美元的真实购买力。这将进一步导致美元信用塌陷，在危及美国经济的同时，对国际货币体系和世界经济构成剧烈冲击。

According to United States Congressional Budget Office, by 2052, the proportion of U.S. government debt held by the public will reach 185% of GDP, and the net interest expense on government debt will reach 7.2% of GDP. At that time, international markets may seriously question the sustainability of United States government debt and the true purchasing power of the dollar. This will further lead to the collapse of US dollar credit, which will endanger the United States economy and pose a severe impact on the international monetary system and the world economy.

“短期来看，为了避免债务违约，美国可能再次提高债务上限，进而导致债务规模不断扩大。当前，美国以及欧洲多国通胀高企，这和美国政府不停印钞、不停举债是密切相关的。”卞永祖分析称，当前，全球经济陷入低迷，世界亟须稳定性和确定性，而不是被美国的债务危机所绑架，为美国的挥霍埋单。

"In the short term, to avoid a default, the United States could raise the debt ceiling again, leading to an ever-increasing debt." At present, the United States and many European countries high inflation, which and the U.S. government kept printing money, keep borrowing is closely related. Bian Yongzu analysis said, At present, The global economy is in a downturn, The world urgently needs stability and certainty, Rather than be kidnapped by the debt crisis of the United States, For the United States to pay for the profligacy.

“我们只能再次希望，美国民选官员能够迸发出强烈的责任感，使世界免于一场不必要的危机。”法国《回声报》刊文称。

"We can only hope once again that elected officials in the United States will summon a strong sense of responsibility to save the world from an unnecessary crisis." France "Echo" published an article said.