煤电核准量增加推动产能升级
The increase in coal-fired power approval promotes the upgrading of production capacity
近期，我国煤电核准量大幅增加，新项目核准达到近年来最高水平，这一现象引发广泛关注。众所周知，我国一直致力于推动能源结构调整。在能源绿色低碳转型大背景下，会影响我国碳减排目标的实现吗？
Recently, China's coal power approval volume increased significantly, new project approval reached the highest level in recent years, this phenomenon has caused widespread concern. As we all know, China has been committed to promoting energy restructuring. In the context of green and low-carbon energy transition, will it affect the achievement of China's carbon emission reduction targets?
“双碳”目标提出后，我国能源结构调整加速，煤电装机增量呈现下降趋势，2021年全国新增煤电投产装机仅2803万千瓦，为过往15年的最低水平。但根据北大能源研究院发布的《中国典型五省煤电发展现状与转型优化潜力研究》统计，2022年1月至11月，国内新核准煤电项目装机总量已达6524万千瓦，超过2021年核准总量的3倍。数据对比下，虽然已核准的装机到投产尚需时日，但煤电装机回暖态势已明。
After the "double carbon" target was proposed, China's energy structure adjustment accelerated, and the incremental coal power installation showed a downward trend, with only 28.03 million kilowatts of new coal power installed in 2021, the lowest level in the past 15 years. However, according to the "Study on the Current Situation of Coal Power Development and Transformation and Optimization Potential in Five Typical Chinese Provinces" released by the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, from January to November 2022, the total installed capacity of newly approved coal power projects in China has reached 65.24 million kilowatts, more than three times the total approved capacity in 2021. In contrast to the data, although it will take time for the approved installations to go into production, the trend of coal power installations to pick up has become clear.
为何加强煤电机组建设力度？核心原因就是保障能源安全。过去两年，区域性的用电紧张和乌克兰危机引发的能源短缺，让我们认识到：作为煤炭大国，煤电对保障我国电力供应发挥着至关重要的作用。一方面，我国经济社会还在快速发展，用电量还有很大增长空间。据预测，到2050年，我国全社会用电量和人均用电量较目前将翻一番。由于风电、光伏等新能源发电效率不高，短期内无法提供可靠的电力支撑，煤电装机还需保持合理增长。
Why strengthen the coal power unit construction efforts? The core reason is to ensure energy security. In the past two years, regional electricity tension and the Ukraine crisis triggered by energy shortages, let us realize: as a large coal country, coal power plays a vital role in ensuring China's power supply. On the one hand, China's economic and social development is still rapid, there is still a lot of room for growth in electricity consumption. According to forecasts, by 2050, China's total social electricity consumption and per capita electricity consumption will double compared to the current. As wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy generation efficiency is not high, in the short term can not provide reliable power support, coal power installation still need to maintain a reasonable growth.
另一方面，煤电可有效缓解高峰时段和极端天气下的电力保供压力，也可为大规模可再生能源并网提供支撑。从装机量看，我国电力供应总体充足，但在实际运行中，高峰用电时段电力难以做到瞬时平衡。由于可再生能源“看天吃饭”的特性，关键时刻还得依靠煤电。数据显示，2022年，夏季高峰时段全国最高负荷同比增长6.4%，煤电机组顶峰能力较2021年同期提升1.5亿千瓦，在电力保供中发挥了“顶梁柱”作用。因此，无论是为电力供应兜底，还是支撑新能源增量发展，短期都离不开煤电。
On the other hand, coal power can effectively alleviate the pressure to maintain power supply during peak hours and extreme weather, but also to provide support for large-scale renewable energy to the grid. From the installed capacity, China's overall power supply is sufficient, but in actual operation, the peak hours of electricity is difficult to achieve instantaneous balance. Because of the renewable energy "to see the sky to eat" characteristics, the critical moment also have to rely on coal power. Data show that in 2022, the summer peak hours of the country's highest load increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the peak capacity of coal power units compared to the same period in 2021 to improve 150 million kilowatts, in the power supply to play a "pillar" role. Therefore, whether for the power supply bottom, or to support the development of new energy increment, short-term can not be separated from coal power.
虽然煤电装机核准数量增加，但装机质量也在大幅提升，并非如同过去粗放式“大上煤电”。在新核准的煤电项目中，大多数是100万千瓦级别的大型先进燃煤发电机组，这些高效率的机组不仅煤耗更低，还可实现超低排放，早已不是从前的“污染大户”。新建煤电机组的同时，我国也在关停落后的小煤电机组，这些机组普遍存在煤耗高、设备老旧、可靠性差等问题，许多省份都在“十三五”期间出台了关于淘汰关停30万千瓦以下燃煤机组的通知，并且给出了明确的量化目标。因此，“一增一减”也是推动煤电产能更新升级的重要一环。
Although the number of approved coal power installations has increased, the quality of installed capacity has also been significantly improved, not as in the past crude "big on coal power". In the newly approved coal power projects, most of them are large-scale advanced coal-fired generating units of 1 million kilowatts level, these high-efficiency units not only have lower coal consumption, but also can achieve ultra-low emissions, has long been not the former "big polluter". While new coal-fired power units are being built, China is also shutting down small, outdated coal-fired power units, which generally have high coal consumption, old equipment, poor reliability and other problems, and many provinces have issued notices on the elimination of coal-fired units below 300,000 kilowatts during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and given clear quantitative targets. Therefore, "an increase and a decrease" is also an important part of promoting the upgrading of coal power capacity.
除了机组结构的变化，此轮煤电投资的另一大亮点是煤电联营。近一年内，国资委多次会议提及煤电联营、煤电与可再生能源联营，各大发电集团积极推进“两个联营”。长期以来，由于煤电价格“顶牛”，煤炭价格大涨时，发电企业无法通过电价疏导成本，企业就会大幅亏损。煤电联营有望发挥产业链一体化优势，保证煤炭供应稳定性、降低企业燃料成本，解决煤、电矛盾。煤电与可再生能源联营则能有力支撑新能源大规模并网。
In addition to changes in unit structure, another major highlight of this round of coal power investment is the coal power pool. In the past year, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has mentioned coal-power joint venture, coal-power and renewable energy joint venture, and major power generation groups are actively promoting the "two joint ventures". For a long time, due to coal and electricity prices "top bull", when coal prices rise, power generation enterprises can not channel the cost through the price of electricity, the enterprise will be a substantial loss. Coal and electricity is expected to play the advantages of industry chain integration, to ensure the stability of coal supply, reduce corporate fuel costs, to solve the contradiction between coal and electricity. Coal power and renewable energy joint venture can strongly support the new energy large-scale grid connection.
加大核准力度的同时，对于新增煤电项目并不是“一放了之”。发电利用小时数是判断电厂利用效率的重要标准。2015年以来，我国火电机组利用小时数一直低于4500小时的红线，说明行业整体利用效率并不高，煤电供给不足更多是结构性矛盾。当前各地新建的煤电机组如果利用小时数上不去，不仅将造成社会资源资金的巨大浪费，还会影响“双碳”进程。各地应从长远谋划，对于新上项目科学论证、严格把关，平衡好煤电转型优化与托底保供之间的关系，不能简单地对煤电“开闸放水”。
The new coal-fired power projects are not "just released" while the approval is being increased. The number of hours of power generation is an important criterion for judging the efficiency of power plants, and since 2015, the number of hours of utilization of thermal power units in China has been below the red line of 4,500 hours, indicating that the overall efficiency of the industry is not high, and the lack of coal power supply is more of a structural contradiction. The current new coal power units around if the utilization hours do not go up, will not only cause a huge waste of social resources and funds, but also affect the "double carbon" process. All places should plan for the long term, for new projects on the scientific evidence, strict control, balance between the transformation of coal power optimization and the bottom of the relationship between supply, not simply to coal power "open the floodgates".
新增煤电项目要做到“精准滴灌”，投放到需求最迫切的地方去。增强电力保供能力方面，要合理建设一批支撑性、调节性煤电机组。一部分布局在中东部电力负荷中心，作为本地支撑电源；另一部分布局在大型风光基地及周边，为输送新能源提供支撑和调节。此外，积极推进煤炭清洁高效利用及相关技术研发，大力推动存量煤电节能降碳改造、灵活性改造、供热改造“三改联动”，在保障电力稳定供应、促进新能源消纳的基础上，降低煤电行业排放水平。
New coal power projects to do "accurate drip irrigation", put to the most urgent needs of the place to go. Enhance the power supply capacity, to reasonably build a number of supportive, regulatory coal power units. Part of the layout in the central and eastern power load center, as a local support power; another part of the layout in and around the large scenic base, to provide support and regulation for the transmission of new energy. In addition, actively promote the clean and efficient use of coal and related technology research and development, and vigorously promote the stock of coal power energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation, flexibility transformation, heating transformation "three change linkage", in order to ensure a stable supply of electricity, promote new energy consumption on the basis of reducing the level of emissions from the coal power industry.
