中国经济二季报前瞻：摆脱底部，迅速爬升
Outlook of China's Second Quarterly Economic Report: Getting rid of the bottom and climbing rapidly
受到新冠肺炎疫情和俄乌冲突等超预期因素影响，二季度我国经济下行压力明显加大。国家统计局将于7月15日发布2022年二季度及6月份宏观经济数据，GDP增速、消费、投资、工业等经济指标将“亮相”。
Under the influence of higher-than-expected factors such as COVID-19 's epidemic situation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the downward pressure on China's economy increased significantly in the second quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics will release macroeconomic data for the second quarter and June of 2022 on July 15, and economic indicators such as GDP growth, consumption, investment and industry will be "unveiled".
多位专家表示，受到2020年初以来最严重的疫情反弹和封控措施影响，二季度经济增速大幅放缓。得益于疫情好转，6月份工业生产数据或显著恢复，消费降幅收窄。投资对经济的支撑作用进一步凸显，基建投资保持高增长，房地产投资回暖。第二季度经济有望实现正增长，下半年经济增速将显著回升。
Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, affected by the worst rebound and containment measures since the beginning of 2020, several experts said. Thanks to the improvement in the epidemic, industrial production data may recover significantly in June, and the decline in consumption narrowed. The supporting role of investment to the economy has been further highlighted, infrastructure investment has maintained high growth, and real estate investment has picked up. The economy is expected to achieve positive growth in the second quarter and will pick up significantly in the second half of the year.
展望下半年，为实现全年经济增长目标，需要更大力度、更加精准的宏观调控举措，政策效果也将会有更充分的体现。专家建议，财政政策应发力最终需求，并向受疫情冲击严重的行业倾斜。货币政策继续发挥总量和结构工具优势，充分挖掘利率改革潜力，引导金融机构加大普惠小微企业、绿色发展、制造业、基建等重点领域支持。
Looking forward to the second half of the year, greater and more accurate macro-control measures are needed to achieve the economic growth target for the whole year, and the policy effect will be more fully reflected. Experts suggest that fiscal policy should focus on final demand and tilt towards industries that have been hard hit by the epidemic. Monetary policy will continue to give full play to the advantages of aggregate and structural tools, fully tap the potential of interest rate reform, and guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, green development, manufacturing, infrastructure and other key areas.
二季度GDP有望正增长
GDP is expected to grow positively in the second quarter
最新一期第一财经首席调研结果显示，参与调研的17位经济学家对2022年第二季度GDP增速的预测均值为0.94%，远低于2022年一季度4.8%的经济增速。
The average forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 by the 17 economists surveyed was 0.94%, well below the 4.8% growth rate in the first quarter of 2022, according to the latest survey by the chief economist of First Finance and Economics.
国君宏观发布的研报显示，疫情造成较大冲击，预计二季度增速0.8%。供给端来看，疫情对工业和服务业冲击都比较大，二季度工业增加值大概率落在1%以下，服务业生产指数则仍位于负增区间，因此二季度GDP位于1%以下可能性较大。需求端来看，消费偏弱，基建、制造业带动投资，出口较有韧性。
According to the research report released by Guojun Macro, the epidemic has caused a great impact, and the growth rate is expected to be 0.8% in the second quarter. On the supply side, the epidemic has a great impact on both industry and the service industry. Industrial added value is likely to fall below 1% in the second quarter, while the service industry production index is still in a negative growth range, so it is more likely that GDP will be less than 1% in the second quarter. On the demand side, consumption is weak, infrastructure and manufacturing drive investment, and exports are more resilient.
2022年中国经济面临前所未有的挑战。中国首席经济学家论坛理事王军对第一财经表示，从国际看新冠疫情和俄乌冲突持续扰动经济修复节奏，国内三重压力对经济造成持续影响。在政策底的强劲支持下，2022年的经济底可能已经在二季度出现，并继续在三季度出现一个明显回升。但我们也需要清醒地认识到，鉴于4月和5月供需两端出现急剧的停滞，6月份的反弹可能只是勉强使二季度经济运行摆脱负增长局面。
China's economy faces unprecedented challenges in 2022. Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, told China Finance and Economics that from an international perspective, the COVID-19 epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to disturb the pace of economic repair, and triple domestic pressure has a sustained impact on the economy. With the strong support of the policy bottom, the economic bottom of 2022 may have appeared in the second quarter and continued to show a significant rebound in the third quarter. But we also need to be soberly aware that given the sharp stagnation in supply and demand in April and May, the rebound in June may only barely lift the economy out of negative growth in the second quarter.
中国财政学会会长、中国经济社会理事会副主席楼继伟日前在一次公开演讲中也提到，5月、6月中国经济已经回暖，但预期恢复并不平衡；相比于产业链上游的大型国企和价值链高端的金融机构和高技术企业，产业链的中下游和价值链的中低端多为中小微企业和民营企业，由于最终需求不足，困难最为严重，关键是最终消费要得以全面恢复，不确定性大幅减弱，经济才能活起来。
Lou Jiwei, president of China Finance Society and vice chairman of China Economic and Social Council, also mentioned in a public speech a few days ago that China's economy has picked up in May and June, but the expected recovery is not balanced. Compared with the large state-owned enterprises in the upper reaches of the industrial chain and the financial institutions and high-tech enterprises at the high end of the value chain, the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain and the middle and low end of the value chain are mostly small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises. Due to the lack of final demand, the difficulty is the most serious. The key is that the final consumption can be fully recovered and the uncertainty can be greatly reduced before the economy can survive.
随着稳增长政策的逐步落地，经济学家们预计疫情对经济的扰动将逐步减弱，未来经济将缓慢修复。第一财经研究院发布的7月份“第一财经首席经济学家信心指数”为50.62，连续两个月反弹，是今年4月以来首次高于50荣枯线。
With the gradual landing of the policy of stabilizing growth, economists predict that the economic disturbance caused by the epidemic will gradually weaken and the economy will slowly repair in the future. The confidence Index of the first Financial and Economic Chief Economist released by the first Institute of Finance and Economics in July was 50.62, the second consecutive month of rebound and the first time since April this year that it was above the 50 rise and fall line.
工业生产加快修复
Industrial production to speed up repair
参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对6月工业增加值同比增速的预测均值为4.07%，高于上月0.7%的公布数值。
Economists involved in the chief survey of First Finance and Economics forecast an average of 4.07 per cent year-on-year growth in industrial output in June, up from 0.7 per cent reported last month.
瑞银亚洲经济研究主管、首席中国经济学家汪涛预计，6月工业生产同比增速可能反弹至3.3%，三年平均复合增长率从此前的4.6%上升至5.4%。
Wang Tao, UBS's head of Asian economic research and chief China economist, expects industrial production growth to rebound to 3.3 per cent year-on-year in June, rising to 5.4 per cent from 4.6 per cent on a three-year average.
从先行指标来看，国家统计局6月30日发布的2022年6月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，结束连续3个月50%以下低位运行，重回50%以上的景气区间。
According to the leading indicators, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry for June 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics was 50.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, ending three consecutive months of low levels below 50% and returning to a boom range of more than 50%.
中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，6月份PMI指数继续回升，且重回荣枯线以上，表明经济全面恢复态势更为明显。显示随疫情影响减轻，中国经济充沛的增长动能很快显露。
Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the PMI index continued to pick up in June and returned to above the boom-and-bust line, indicating that the overall economic recovery is more obvious. It shows that as the impact of the epidemic lessens China's abundant economic growth momentum soon emerged.
民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，6月官方制造业PMI较上月回升0.6个百分点至50.2%，反映制造业已经转为扩张。疫情受控、物流恢复推动复工复产进程加快，基建投资反弹、出口仍有韧性、消费和房地产市场降幅收窄，均有利于工业生产加快修复。
Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank, said the official manufacturing PMI rose 0.6 percentage points to 50.2% in June from the previous month, reflecting that the manufacturing sector has turned to expansion. The process of resumption of work and production accelerated by the control of the epidemic and the resumption of logistics, the rebound in infrastructure investment, the resilience of exports, and the narrowing of the decline in consumption and the real estate market are all conducive to the accelerated repair of industrial production.
高频指标显示，行业开工率继续回升。6月全国247家钢厂高炉开工率由82.8%回升至83.4%，为2021年3月以来的最高水平；6月汽车半钢胎周平均开工率由上月的56.8%回升至64.2%。
High-frequency indicators show that the industry operating rate continues to pick up. In June, the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills nationwide rose from 82.8% to 83.4%, the highest level since March 2021; The average weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires rose to 64.2% from 56.8% last month in June.
消费降幅或收窄
Consumption declines or narrows
今年以来，中央和地方不断出台促消费相关举措，全方位多领域发力激发消费潜力。第一财经首席经济学家调研结果显示，6月社会消费品零售总额同比增速或将回升至-0.81%。
Since the beginning of this year, the central and local governments have continuously issued relevant measures to promote consumption, making all-round and multi-field efforts to stimulate consumption potential. According to the survey results of the chief economist of First Finance and Economics, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June may rebound to-0.81%.
汪涛表示，预计6月社会消费品零售同比跌幅可能收窄至2%，依然弱于工业活动的增长动能。因疫情防控措施的进一步放松，整体消费者活动可能改善。其中18个主要城市的地铁客流量同比下滑14%，较5月同比下降42%显著改善。
Mr Wang said retail sales of consumer goods were expected to narrow to a year-on-year decline of 2 per cent in June, still weaker than the growth momentum of industrial activity. Due to the further relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, overall consumer activity is likely to improve. Subway passenger traffic in 18 major cities fell 14% from a year earlier, a significant improvement from a 42% drop in May.
华创证券研究所首席宏观分析师张瑜分析，6月消费数据回暖主要来自于汽车与餐饮。预计6月餐饮增速为-8％，仅餐饮一项，将使得6月社零增速比5月多1.4个百分点。尽管618促销热度一般，但从物流数据看，6月网购增速依然会略好于5月。
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, analyzed that the recovery of consumption data in June mainly came from automobiles and restaurants. It is estimated that the growth rate of food and beverage in June will be-8%, and the growth rate of food and beverage alone will be 1.4 percentage points higher than that in May. Although 618 promotion heat is average, but from logistics data to see, June online shopping growth will still be slightly better than May.
得益于央地系列汽车政策的加码，6月汽车消费大超预期。中国汽车工业协会11日公布的数据显示，6月份，我国汽车产销分别完成249.9万辆和250.2万辆，同比分别增长28.2%和23.8%。其中，新能源汽车产销创历史新高，分别完成59万辆和59.6万辆，同比均增长1.3倍。
Thanks to the central series of car policy added code, June car consumption greatly exceeded expectations. China's auto production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively in June, up 28.2 percent and 23.8 percent year-on-year, according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on Monday. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached an all-time high, with 590,000 and 596,000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3 times.
中汽协表示，6月以来我国汽车产业受疫情影响的供应链已全面恢复，企业加快生产节奏弥补损失。在国家购置税减半政策、地方政府促汽车消费政策叠加下，我国汽车市场表现良好。
China's auto industry's supply chain affected by the epidemic has fully recovered since June, and enterprises have accelerated production to make up for losses, the China Automobile Association said. China's automobile market performs well under the superposition of the national purchase tax halving policy and the local government's policy of promoting automobile consumption.
投资支撑作用凸显
Outstanding investment support role
今年以来，投资对于经济发展的支撑作用更加凸显。参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对6月固定资产投资增速的预测均值为6.08%。
Since the beginning of this year, investment has played a more prominent role in supporting economic development. Economists involved in the chief survey of First Finance and Economics forecast an average growth rate of 6.08% in fixed asset investment in June.
兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委表示，在基建方面，6月基建投资有望维持稳健增长，2022年度剩余专项债额度在5、6月份集中发行，资金动能走强；在房地产方面，6月随着政策发力商品房成交面积同比改善，资金压力稍缓支撑房企建安投资；在制造业方面，6月随着物流、生产继续恢复，此前受疫情影响放缓的制造业投资有望继续回暖。尤其是汽车、装备制造业等受疫情影响较为明显的行业。
Lu political commissar, chief economist of Societe Generale, said that in terms of infrastructure, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain steady growth in June, and the remaining special debt line in 2022 will be issued in May and June, and the capital momentum will strengthen; in terms of real estate, with the improvement of the transaction area of commercial housing in June compared with the same period last year, the financial pressure has slightly slowed down to support the Jian'an investment of housing enterprises. In the manufacturing sector, investment in the manufacturing sector, which had been slowed down by the epidemic, is expected to continue to pick up as logistics and production continue to recover in June. Especially in the automobile, equipment manufacturing and other industries that are obviously affected by the epidemic.
今年在稳增长要求下地方债发行前置，一季度地方债早发力，发行合计超过1.82万亿。在5月地方债发行节奏加速后，根据财政部要求，6月份地方专项债基本完成全年发行限额。6月地方债共计发行19335亿元，同比上升143.27%，环比增加60.11%。其中新增专项债发行13723亿元，同比上升218.92%。
This year, under the requirement of stable growth, the issuance of local bonds was in advance. In the first quarter, the issuance of local bonds was early, and the total issuance exceeded 1.82 trillion yuan. After the acceleration of the issuance rhythm of local bonds in May, according to the requirements of the Ministry of Finance, the issuance quota of local special bonds for the whole year was basically completed in June. In June, local bonds issued a total of 1, 933.5 billion yuan, up 143.27% year-on-year and 60.11% month-on-month. Among them, the issuance of new special bonds reached 1372.3 billion yuan, up 218.92% year-on-year.
此外，6月29日召开的国务院常务会议确定，运用政策性、开发性金融工具，通过发行金融债券等筹资3000亿元，用于补充重大项目资本金或为专项债项目资本金搭桥。中央财政予以适当贴息。
In addition, the executive meeting of the State Council held on June 29 determined that 300 billion yuan would be raised by issuing financial bonds through policy-oriented and development-oriented financial instruments to supplement capital for major projects or bridge capital for special debt projects. The central government shall give appropriate discount.
工银国际首席经济学家程实表示，基建是今年经济增长的重要动力源。由于政策靠前发力，8月后基建增速将大概率阶段性回落，但仍可能通过提前下达明年新增专项债额度以保持一定支撑力度。基于现有资金来源，预计全年广义基建累计增速将达到6%~8%高位增长。若8月后提前下达明年新增专项债额度，那么基建增速或突破10%。
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said infrastructure is an important source of economic growth this year. As the policy relies on the front, there is a high probability that the growth rate of infrastructure will decline in stages after August, but it is still possible to maintain a certain degree of support by issuing a new special debt quota for next year in advance. Based on the existing sources of funds, the cumulative growth rate of broad infrastructure for the whole year is expected to reach a high growth rate of 6% to 8%. If the new special debt quota for next year is issued ahead of schedule after August, infrastructure growth could exceed 10%.
下半年稳增长政策仍需加力
The policy of stabilizing growth in the second half of the year still needs to be strengthened
今年的政府工作报告确定了国内生产总值增长5.5%左右的全年预期增长目标。这是高基数上的中高速增长，体现了主动作为，需要付出艰苦努力才能实现。如今2022年已过半，实现全年经济增长目标面临更大的挑战。
This year's government work report set a full-year expected growth target of GDP growth of about 5.5%. This is a medium-to-high growth rate on a high base, reflecting initiative and requiring hard work to achieve. Now that 2022 is halfway through, achieving the full-year economic growth target faces greater challenges.
面对经济新的下行压力，下半年需要更大力度、更加精准的宏观调控举措，政策效果也将会有更充分的体现。为保证全年经济目标的基本完成，使中国经济回到健康运行区间，中国稳经济一揽子措施需要进行扩容和工具的创新。
In the face of the new downward pressure on the economy, greater and more accurate macro-control measures are needed in the second half of the year, and the policy effect will be more fully reflected. In order to ensure the basic completion of the economic goals for the whole year and bring China's economy back to the range of healthy operation, the package of measures to stabilize China's economy needs to be expanded and tools innovated.
王军告诉第一财经记者，当前我国的宏观调控仍有较大的余地，政策力度仍有进一步提升的空间。如果不调整全年预期增长目标，如期实现全年5.5%的增长目标，需要在上半年的基础上，大幅扩张宏观经济政策，加大政策力度，强力打破需求收缩和预期转弱之间的向下螺旋和恶性循环。
Wang Jun told China Financial and Economic reporter that at present, there is still a lot of room for macro-control in China, and there is still room for further improvement in policy intensity. If we do not adjust the expected growth target for the whole year and achieve the 5.5% growth target for the whole year as scheduled, we need to greatly expand macroeconomic policies and strengthen policies on the basis of the first half of the year. vigorously break the downward spiral and vicious circle between demand contraction and expected weakening.
王军建议，以财政政策为主、以中央政府加杠杆为主稳定经济大盘，增发1万亿元以上规模的抗疫纾困特别国债，成立万亿级体量的促消费特别基金，向全国范围内特定群体或全体民众发放普惠性质的现金补贴或消费券，提前下发2023年的专项债额度并在今年四季度即开始使用。继续降准降息，以尽可能降低融资成本，减轻企业负担。
Wang Jun suggested that we should give priority to fiscal policy and the central government to increase leverage to stabilize the overall economic market, issue more than 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds for epidemic prevention and relief, and set up a trillion-level special fund for promoting consumption. cash subsidies or consumption coupons of a universal nature will be issued to specific groups or all people nationwide, and the special debt line for 2023 will be issued ahead of schedule and will be put into use in the fourth quarter of this year. We will continue to cut reserve requirements and interest rates in order to reduce financing costs as much as possible and lighten the burden on enterprises.
汪涛也认为，预计未来政策有望继续加码，包括信贷增速进一步反弹，放松地方政府融资平台融资，以及进一步放松房地产政策。然而，迄今为止宣布的政策支持仍比较温和，且依然偏紧的防疫限制措施可能影响宏观宽松政策的有效性。目前已经公布和未来计划出台的政策支持包括可能发行特别国债不足以完全缓解经济下行压力。
Mr. Wang also believes that future policies are expected to continue to increase, including a further rebound in credit growth, easing financing from local government financing vehicles and further easing real estate policies. However, the policy support announced so far remains modest, and the still-tight epidemic restrictions could affect the effectiveness of macro-easing. The policy support that has been announced and is planned in the future, including the possible issuance of special treasury bonds, is not enough to completely ease the downward pressure on the economy.
德勤中国首席经济学家许思涛表示，在超预期的经济压力下，5月以来政策制定者召开了多次关于稳经济的高层会议。各地政府加快落实退税减税降费、缓缴社保费等助企纾困政策，而且放宽购房和购车限制等提振经济的举措也正逐步实施。这种精准发力的做法与官方不搞“大水漫灌”式强刺激的基调一致。
Xu Sitao, chief China economist at Deloitte, said policy makers had held a number of high-level meetings on stabilizing the economy since May under higher-than-expected economic pressure. Local governments have accelerated the implementation of tax rebates, tax cuts, fee cuts, social security premiums and other policies to help enterprises out of hardship, and measures to boost the economy, such as relaxing restrictions on home and car purchases, are also being gradually implemented. This precise approach is consistent with the official tone of not engaging in strong stimulation of "flood irrigation".
许思涛表示，财政政策应发力最终需求，并向受新冠冲击严重的行业倾斜，如财政部表示将加大对民航等行业企业纾困发展的支持力度。出台增量财政政策是明智的，能否有效稳住经济大盘将最终依赖于能否高效统筹好疫情防控和复工复产。
Xu Sitao said that the fiscal policy should focus on the final demand and tilt towards industries seriously affected by the new crown. For example, the Ministry of Finance said it would increase its support for the rescue and development of enterprises in civil aviation and other industries. It is wise to introduce incremental fiscal policy, and whether it can effectively stabilize the economic market will ultimately depend on whether the epidemic prevention and control and resumption of production can be effectively coordinated.
