我国天然气市场2022年创纪录
China's Natural Gas Market Reaches Record in 2022
受国内经济增速放缓、新冠肺炎疫情持续、天然气价格水平高企、煤炭供应增长等因素影响，2022上半年天然气消费量出现历史上首次同比下降。
Due to the slowdown of domestic economic growth, the persistence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the high level of natural gas prices, the growth of coal supply and other factors, natural gas consumption fell for the first time in history in the first half of 2022 compared with the same period last year.
统计数据显示，上半年我国天然气消费量1787亿立方米。虽然同比仅减少6亿立方米，下降率尚不到0.5%，但是几十年来我国天然气消费量的首次下降，而去年上半年消费量同比大涨17.4%。预计2022年全年天然气消费量3589亿立方米，比上年微增12亿立方米，增速仅为0.3%。就我国天然气市场来看，2022年必将作为特殊的一年载入历史。
Statistics show that China consumed 178.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the first half of the year. Although it is only 600 million cubic meters lower than the same period last year, or less than 0.5 percent, China's natural gas consumption fell for the first time in decades, while consumption rose 17.4 percent in the first half of last year compared with the same period last year. Natural gas consumption for the whole year of 2022 is expected to be 358.9 billion cubic meters, a slight increase of 1.2 billion cubic meters over the previous year, or a growth rate of only 0.3 percent. As far as China's natural gas market is concerned, 2022 will be recorded in history as a special year.
消费量历史首降
First decline in consumption in history
2022上半年，受多重因素影响，我国天然气市场低迷，消费量从3月开始持续呈现同比负增长态势。在此前的历史中，我国仅有2020年2月出现过同比下降的情况，而连续多月同比下降的现象为历史上首次。根据统计数据，上半年我国天然气消费量1787亿立方米，同比减少6亿立方米，同比下降0.3%。其中，4月降幅最大，达到9.2%。
In the first half of 2022, under the influence of multiple factors, China's natural gas market was in the doldrums, and the consumption continued to show a negative growth trend compared with the same period last year since March. In the previous history, China only experienced a year-on-year decline in February 2020, and the decline for many consecutive months was the first time in history. According to statistics, China's natural gas consumption in the first half of the year was 178.7 billion cubic meters, down 600 million cubic meters from the same period last year, or 0.3 percent from the same period last year. Among them, April had the largest decline, reaching 9.2%.
分行业来看，上半年仅有城镇燃气消费量较上年同期有所增长，增量为40亿立方米，增幅为6.1%，主要集中在采暖用气和居民用气。在四大用气领域中，同比降幅最大的是天然气发电，上半年发电用气量268亿立方米，下降42亿立方米，降幅13.6%。工业燃料用气同比下降10亿立方米，降幅为1.4%。化工用气量小幅降低，绝对量下降1亿立方米。
In terms of sectors, only urban gas consumption increased in the first half of the year over the same period last year, with an increase of 4 billion cubic meters, or 6.1 percent, mainly focused on heating gas and residential gas. Among the four major gas consumption areas, the largest year-on-year decline was natural gas power generation, with 26.8 billion cubic meters of gas used for power generation in the first half of the year, down 4.2 billion cubic meters, or 13.6 percent. Industrial fuel gas consumption fell 1 billion cubic meters, or 1.4 per cent, year-on-year. The amount of gas used in the chemical industry decreased slightly, and the absolute volume decreased by 100 million cubic meters.
分地区来看，长三角等区域市场受疫情影响程度最高。江苏、浙江、上海是中国排名居前列的外贸省市，出口下降对天然气需求的影响最大。三省市4月进出口增速较一季度均出现回落。尤其是出口，4月上海、江苏出口增速分别为-43.8%和-15.1%。5月长三角地区规模以上工业增加值同比下降3.2%，降幅比4月收窄超过10个百分点，但同比仍为负值。这严重影响了天然气需求。
From a regional point of view, the Yangtze River Delta and other regional markets are the most affected by the epidemic. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are the top foreign trade provinces and cities in China, and the decline in exports has the greatest impact on natural gas demand. The import and export growth rate of the three provinces and cities in April was lower than that in the first quarter. Exports, in particular, grew by-43.8% in Shanghai and-15.1% in Jiangsu in April. In May, the industrial added value of large-scale industries in the Yangtze River Delta region fell 3.2% from a year earlier, which was more than 10 percentage points lower than that in April, but it was still negative compared with the same period last year. This seriously affected the demand for natural gas.
总体供应量下降
Overall supply declines
从供应端来看，上半年我国天然气总体供应量1850亿立方米，同比减少29亿立方米，下降1.3%，也是历史上首次下降。
From the supply side, China 's overall natural gas supply in the first half of the year was 185 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 billion cubic meters, down 1.3%, is also the first decline in history.
其中，国产气继续平稳增长，增速为6.2%;进口管道气持续增长，增速为11.8%。但是，进口LNG供应量大幅降低。1-6月LNG供应量仅为426亿立方米，较上年同期减少128亿立方米，同比降低23.2%，导致天然气总体供应量下降。其中，中国石油进口LNG同比增长16%，中国石化、中国海油与三大油以外的第二梯队企业进口LNG分别下降25%、27%、60%。
Among them, domestic gas continued to grow steadily at a growth rate of 6.2%, while imported pipeline gas continued to grow at a growth rate of 11.8%. However, the supply of imported LNG has decreased significantly. From January to June, the supply of LNG was only 42.6 billion cubic meters, down 12.8 billion cubic meters from the same period last year, or 23.2 percent from the same period last year, resulting in a decline in the overall supply of natural gas. Of this total, LNG of China's oil imports increased by 16 per cent compared with the same period last year, while imports of LNG by second-tier enterprises other than Sinopec, CNOOC and the three major oils fell by 25 per cent, 27 per cent and 60 per cent respectively.
现货LNG进口的大幅度减少是导致LNG供应量总体大幅降低的主要原因，LNG现货价格的大幅上升导致企业进口积极性疲软。
The sharp decrease of spot LNG import is the main reason for the overall sharp decrease of LNG supply, and the sharp rise of LNG spot price leads to the weak import enthusiasm of enterprises.
统计表明，上半年东北亚LNG现货均价31.5美元/MMBtu，同比上涨252%。今年年初申请到国家管网集团LNG接收站窗口期的企业，仅壳牌6月8日在国网粤东卸船销售，其他企业均未参与窗口期使用。申请到中国海油LNG接收站窗口期一站通的企业，仅从4月开始出货，6月底消化完两船长协LNG资源后就暂停销售。以现货LNG资源为主的广汇启东、深圳华安、东莞九丰等企业大多暂停了LNG进口业务。受此影响，我国进口LNG均价大幅攀升至15.1美元/MMBtu，同比上涨93.1%。
Statistics show that the average spot price of LNG in Northeast Asia in the first half of the year was 31.50 US dollars / MMBtu, an increase of 252 percent over the same period last year. For the enterprises that applied for the window period of the LNG receiving station of the State Pipe Network Group at the beginning of this year, only Shell unloaded ships for sale in East Guangdong, the national network on June 8, and other enterprises did not participate in the window period. Companies that apply for CNOOC's LNG receiving terminal window will start shipping only in April and suspend sales at the end of June after digesting the LNG resources of the two ship leaders' Association. Most of the enterprises, such as Guanghui Qidong, Shenzhen Huaan, Dongguan Jiufeng, which are mainly spot LNG resources, have suspended their LNG import business. Affected by this, the average price of China's import LNG rose sharply to US $15.1USD / MMBtu, an increase of 93.1% over the same period last year.
值得一提的是，由于进口LNG的大幅降低，上半年我国天然气对外依存度低于40%，是2018年以来的新低。
It is worth mentioning that due to the sharp reduction of imported LNG, China 's dependence on foreign natural gas in the first half of the year was less than 40%, which is a new low since 2018.
预计全年消费量微增
Annual consumption is expected to increase slightly
综合国内经济增速、新冠肺炎疫情、天然气价格水平、煤炭供应增长等影响因素，预计2022年我国天然气消费量3589亿立方米，比上年微增12亿立方米，增速为0.3%。
Considering the domestic economic growth rate, Xinguan pneumonia epidemic, natural gas price level, coal supply growth and other influencing factors, it is estimated that China 's natural gas consumption will reach 358.9 billion cubic meters in 2022, a slight increase of 1.2 billion cubic meters over the previous year, with a growth rate of 0.3%.
居民、采暖、公服用气方面，按历史数据进行延伸预测，主要受国内经济增速影响，预计全年消费增量为77亿立方米。
In terms of residents, heating and public gas consumption, the extended forecast is made according to historical data, which is mainly affected by the domestic economic growth rate. It is estimated that the annual consumption increment will be 7.7 billion cubic meters.
交通用气方面，北京、广东等多省市在规划中明确提出发展新能源汽车，且明确了具体数量或电动化率。随着新能源汽车的发展，CNG汽车将被新能源车逐步替代，但LNG重卡车仍有一定的发展空间。预计2022年我国CNG汽车规模低于2021年，但LNG重卡车持续增加，预计新增LNG重卡约3万辆。考虑经济形势变化和疫情影响等因素，预计重卡行驶里程数较上年有所下降，用气需求减少。综合考虑，预计2022年天然气汽车用气需求239亿立方米，比上年减少约10亿立方米。
In terms of traffic gas consumption, Beijing, Guangdong and other provinces and cities clearly put forward the development of new energy vehicles in their plans, and specified the specific number or electrification rate. With the development of new energy vehicles, CNG vehicles will be gradually replaced by new energy vehicles, but LNG heavy trucks still have some room for development. It is estimated that the scale of CNG vehicles in China in 2022 is lower than that in 2021, but LNG heavy trucks continue to increase, and it is estimated that about 30, 000 new LNG heavy trucks will be added. Taking into account the changes in the economic situation and the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the mileage of heavy trucks is expected to decrease compared with the previous year, and the demand for gas consumption has decreased. Taken together, it is estimated that the gas demand for natural gas vehicles in 2022 is 23.9 billion cubic meters, about 1 billion cubic meters less than the previous year.
天然气发电方面，根据各地区燃气发电项目的进展情况，预计2022年新增燃气发电装机容量在750万千瓦。受经济增速影响，预计2022年天然气发电利用小时数水平低于前几年，全年用气需求量为550亿立方米，比上年减少54亿立方米。
In terms of natural gas power generation, according to the progress of gas power generation projects in various regions, it is estimated that the new installed capacity of gas power generation will be 7.5 million kilowatts in 2022. Influenced by the economic growth rate, it is estimated that the utilization hours of natural gas power generation in 2022 will be lower than those in previous years, and the annual gas demand will be 55 billion cubic meters, 5.4 billion cubic meters less than that of the previous year.
工业用气方面，上海、北海、河源、漳州、柳州等多个地市提高非居民供气价格，湖南10地市以及石家庄、梅州等多地在采暖季结束后继续延续采暖季非居民价格水平，部分地区非居民气价超过5元/立方米。因此，工业燃料用气需求增速较前几年大规模下降，绝对量较2021年仅增加2亿立方米。
In terms of industrial gas consumption, Shanghai, Beihai, Heyuan, Zhangzhou, Liuzhou and other cities have raised non-resident gas prices. 10 cities in Hunan, as well as Shijiazhuang, Meizhou and other places continue to continue the non-resident price level of the heating season after the end of the heating season. Non-resident gas prices in some areas exceed 5 yuan per cubic meter. As a result, the growth rate of gas demand for industrial fuel has declined significantly compared with previous years, and the absolute volume has increased by only 200 million cubic meters compared with 2021.
天然气化工方面，2021年中国天然气基尿素产量有所下降，天然气制甲醇产量有所提升，两行业用气总量与2020年基本持平，炼化等其他化工行业用气比2020年减少10亿立方米。2022年，在天然气价格升高、全球天然气供应形势紧张等背景下，预计尿素、甲醇用气基本持平，炼化等其他化工行业用气将微降，化工用气需求总量将呈现微降的趋势。
In terms of natural gas chemical industry, the output of natural gas-based urea in China has declined in 2021, while the production of methanol from natural gas has increased. The total gas consumption of the two industries is basically the same as that of 2020, and the gas consumption of other chemical industries such as refining and chemical industry is 1 billion cubic meters less than that of 2020. In 2022, under the background of rising natural gas prices and tight global natural gas supply, it is expected that the gas consumption of urea and methanol will be basically the same, the gas consumption of other chemical industries such as refining and chemical industry will decrease slightly, and the total demand of chemical gas will show a slight downward trend.
两点看法
Two points of view
我国天然气消费是否进入拐点?如何看待今年我国天然气消费增速大幅放缓是一个原则性问题。笔者认为，我国天然气消费仍然处于快速通道。原因一是我国能源结构转型需要大量的清洁化石能源，可再生能源还不能担负起“双碳”的重任;二是影响今年我国天然气消费增速下降的原因多数是短期的。随着疫情好转，我国经济必将恢复性增长，从而重新带动天然气消费快速增长。
Does China's natural gas consumption enter the inflection point? How to treat the sharp slowdown in China's natural gas consumption growth this year is a matter of principle. The author believes that China's natural gas consumption is still in a fast track. One reason is that China's energy structure transformation needs a large number of clean fossil energy, renewable energy can not shoulder the "double-carbon" task; Second, most of the reasons affecting the decline in China 's natural gas consumption growth this year are short-term. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, China's economy will certainly recover growth, thus driving the rapid growth of natural gas consumption again.
国际天然气价格是否将长期处于高位?总体来看，我国进口长协天然气价格与油价挂钩，导致油价是决定我国规模性进口管道气和LNG价格的主要因素。现货进口仅近期投运的接收站占比较大，价格受短期因素影响较大。多方面预测表明，全球发展新能源的趋势不会发生根本性改变，油价长期走高的动力不足。因此，我国进口天然气价格不会长期保持高位。一旦价格回落，进口天然气量将继续走高。这预示着我国进口LNG仍处于上升期。
Will international natural gas prices remain high for a long time? On the whole, the price of natural gas imported from China is linked to the oil price, which leads to the oil price being the main factor determining the price of large-scale imported pipeline gas and LNG in China. The receiving stations that have been put into operation recently account for a large proportion of spot imports, and the price is greatly affected by short-term factors. Various forecasts show that the trend of global development of new energy will not fundamentally change, and the driving force for long-term high oil prices is insufficient. Therefore, China's imported natural gas prices will not remain high for a long time. Once prices fall, imported gas volumes will continue to rise. This indicates that China 's LNG imports are still on the rise.
责任编辑：陆晓如
Responsible Editor: Lu Xiaoru
