The future of crypto trading is futures

期货是加密交易的未来

The boundaries between cryptocurrencies and traditional asset classes are blurring ever further, as established Wall Street players make trading digital assets part of their main business — and companies native to bitcoin push into mainstream markets.

加密货币和传统资产类别之间的界限正进一步模糊，因为老牌华尔街玩家将交易数字资产作为其主要业务的一部分——而比特币本土公司也在推进主流市场。

The arrival of institutional investors into the $1.3tn digital asset market has meant the influence of big banks and professional traders has grown. As a result, the relationship between the price of mainstream assets, such as stocks and bonds, and crypto has tightened.

机构投资者进入规模达1.3万亿美元的数字资产市场，意味着大银行和专业交易员的影响力有所增长。因此，股票和债券等主流资产的价格与加密货币之间的关系变得更加紧密。

But, so far, the majority of these established investors can only trade derivatives of bitcoin, rather than cash contracts, which has concentrated the influence of Wall Street into futures markets and over-the-counter (OTC) contracts, such as ‘non-deliverable forwards’.

但是，到目前为止，这些老牌投资者中的大多数只能交易比特币的衍生品，而不是现金合约，这使得华尔街的影响力集中在期货市场和场外交易（OTC）合约，如“不可交割远期”。

And this focus on derivatives has intensified competition from exchanges for a growing part of the digital asset world.

而对衍生品的关注加剧了交易所对数字资产世界越来越大部分的竞争。

The influence of professional traders on the market is already noticeable, says Adam Farthing, chief risk officer for Japan at crypto-specialist market maker B2C2.

专业密码市场做市商B2C2的日本首席风险官亚当？法辛（Adam Farthing）表示，专业交易员对市场的影响已经显而易见。

In recent weeks, cryptocurrency markets had one of their largest ever shake-outs after Tether, a leading stablecoin that should be valued in line with the US dollar, broke its peg to the currency. This sent reverberations through digital asset markets, wiping out billions of dollars worth of trading positions.

最近几周，加密货币市场经历了有史以来最大规模的震荡之一，此前Tether打破了与美元挂钩的汇率机制。Tether是一种领先的稳定币，其估值应与美元保持一致。这在整个数字资产市场引发了反响，使价值数十亿美元的交易头寸化为乌有。

Bitcoin and ethereum, the two largest crypto tokens by market value, have chalked up double-digit losses since the start of the month.

比特币和以太坊是市值最大的两个加密代币，自本月初以来已出现两位数的亏损。

However, Farthing notes that price swings have been much more muted in crypto futures than elsewhere, and dislocations between exchanges — which can give rise to arbitrage opportunities — have been fewer than in previous episodes of market turbulence.

然而，法辛指出，加密期货的价格波动比其他地方要小得多，交易所之间的错位——这可能会带来套利机会——也比以往的市场动荡要少。

“With all the doom-mongering around crypto markets, it is worth noting that the futures markets are increasingly behaving in a mature manner,” Farthing says.

法辛说：“随着加密市场的末日来临，值得注意的是，期货市场的行为越来越成熟。”

Recent volatility has also pushed trading in crypto futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to record highs, as professional traders seek to confine their digital asset trading to a highly regulated market place.

最近的波动也将芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的加密期货合约交易推至创纪录高位，因为专业交易员寻求将他们的数字资产交易限制在一个高度监管的市场场所。

But retail clients trade even larger volumes of futures contracts per day on offshore exchanges, which are less strictly regulated. These include FTX, Binance, and OKex.

但散户客户每天在监管不那么严格的离岸交易所交易的期货合约数量甚至更大。其中包括FTX、Binance和OKex。

Derivatives, such as futures and options, are attractive as they enable investors to wager on price moves within a pre-agreed timeframe, while only putting down a small fraction of the value of their trades in advance. However, this ability to leverage trades amplifies the outcome, which means the scale of potential losses is much larger.

期货和期权等衍生品很有吸引力，因为它们使投资者能够在预先约定的时间范围内押注价格走势，而只需提前降低交易价值的一小部分。然而，这种杠杆交易的能力放大了结果，这意味着潜在损失的规模要大得多。

With all the doom-mongering around crypto markets, it is worth noting that the futures markets are increasingly behaving in a mature manner

随着加密市场上的末日预言，值得注意的是，期货市场正以一种日益成熟的方式运作

Adam Farthing, chief risk officer for Japan at crypto-specialist market maker B2C2

亚当·法辛，加密专家做市商B2C2的日本首席风险官

For highly-regulated institutions like banks, futures are also easier to manage from a credit, compliance and legal point of view because they do not involve the physical delivery of the underlying asset.

对于银行等高度监管的机构来说，期货也更容易从信用、合规和法律角度进行管理，因为期货不涉及标的资产的实物交割。

With these advantages now fuelling more professional trading of crypto futures, exchanges are racing to become the biggest in this market.

由于这些优势现在推动了加密期货更专业的交易，交易所正在竞相成为这个市场上最大的交易所。

Competition between exchanges for a slice of the digital coin market has become fiercer than ever — even as cryptocurrency markets experience one of their biggest ever meltdowns, and fears grow that a prolonged period of low activity could dent trading revenues.

各交易所之间争夺数字货币市场份额的竞争比以往任何时候都更加激烈——尽管加密货币市场经历了有史以来最大的崩溃之一，人们越来越担心，长期的低活跃度可能会削弱交易收入。

“While there isn’t so much a hard limit on the number of exchanges the crypto market can support, it’s likely that a few main players will emerge over time,” predicts Nicky Maan, chief executive of Spectrum Markets, which offers securitised crypto derivatives to investors.

向投资者提供证券化加密衍生品的泛欧证券化衍生品交易所首席执行官尼基·马安预测：“虽然加密市场能够支持的交易所数量没有太多硬性限制，但随着时间的推移，可能会出现一些主要参与者。”

“I expect we will see significant growth [on exchanges] compared with OTC in the next five years,” he adds.

他补充称：“我预计，未来5年，与场外交易相比，我们将看到（交易所）的显著增长。”

Traditional exchanges are also keen to get a slice of the lucrative crypto trading market, having spent years watching their start-up peers in digital assets reap attractive rewards.

传统交易所也热衷于在利润丰厚的加密交易市场分得一杯羹，多年来，它们一直在观察数字资产领域的初创同行获得诱人的回报。

Cboe and the CME were the first to launch futures contracts on bitcoin in 2017. Now, Switzerland’s SIX exchange and Eurex are also offering types of derivatives.

2017年，芝加哥期权交易所和芝加哥商品交易所率先推出了比特币期货合约。现在，瑞士的SIX交易所和欧洲期货交易所也在提供各种衍生品。

At the same time, specialist crypto exchanges are slowly nudging into highly-regulated US derivatives markets. They are doing so partly to satisfy demanding retail customers, who want to trade products and contracts spanning all markets. But the leading crypto exchanges also have half an eye on entering traditional professional markets.

与此同时，专业加密交易所正慢慢地进入高度监管的美国衍生品市场。他们这样做的部分原因是为了满足要求苛刻的零售客户，他们希望在所有市场上交易产品和合同。但领先的加密交易所也有一半的眼睛进入传统的专业市场。

In recent months, several crypto exchanges have made acquisitions of small traditional exchanges — to hasten their push into conventional markets, particularly in derivatives.

最近几个月，几家加密交易所收购了小型传统交易所，以加快它们进入传统市场的步伐，尤其是在衍生品领域。

New crypto exchanges are making inroads, too. There are now 526 exchanges for cryptocurrency trading, according to coinmarketcap, a data website, and some recent entrants have been gaining strength, especially those that target professional investors. Bullish, the platform backed by a number of billionaire hedge fund owners, has had a promising start since late last year.

新的加密交易所也在取得进展。根据数据网站coinmarketcap的数据，目前有526家加密货币交易所，一些最近进入的交易所实力不断增强，尤其是那些以专业投资者为目标的交易所。自去年年底以来，由多位亿万富翁对冲基金所有者支持的平台“看涨”开局良好。

“We launched Bullish right around Christmas time and today we are over $2bn of traded volumes in bitcoin, the same amount as Coinbase,” says Tom Farley, chief executive of Bullish’s special purpose vehicle, which it will use to float on the stock exchange later this year.

“我们在圣诞节前后推出了Bullish，如今我们的比特币交易量超过20亿美元，与Coinbase的交易量相当，”Bullish特殊目的工具（SPV）首席执行官汤姆·法利（Tom Farley）表示。

And some of the ideas that crypto exchanges are bringing to traditional markets are innovative. One is 24 hour trading, seven days a week — a schedule that’s normal for computerised digital markets, but alien even to currency trading, which only operates five days a week.

而加密交易所给传统市场带来的一些想法是创新的。一种是24小时交易，一周七天——这对计算机化的数字市场来说是正常的，但对一周只运行五天的货币交易来说则是陌生的。

Other crypto initiatives are more controversial. Sam Bankman-Fried — billionaire owner of FTX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges — has rattled the stalwarts of the futures market by making a proposal to US regulators that could wipe out brokers from markets.

其他加密倡议更具争议性。山姆·班克曼—弗里德（Sam Bankman-Fried）——全球最大加密交易所之一FTX的亿万富翁所有者——向美国监管机构提出了一项可能将经纪商从市场中清除的建议，此举令期货市场的中坚分子感到不安。

He argues that risk management should be done by computers in all markets, just as it is in crypto. This suggestion hasn’t gone down well with brokers since it would, in effect, give them no role. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US derivatives market regulator, has launched a consultation about the proposal, which could see large banks such as Goldman Sachs cut out of trades.

他认为，风险管理应该在所有市场中由计算机来完成，就像在密码学中一样。这一建议并没有得到经纪人的认可，因为它实际上没有给他们任何作用。然而，美国衍生品市场监管机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）已就这一提议展开磋商，高盛（Goldman Sachs）等大型银行可能会退出交易。

The CFTC is considering whether to allow Bankman-Fried to sell leveraged crypto derivatives to retail investors and settle their trades directly, cutting out intermediate financial brokers from the process.

CFTC正在考虑是否允许Bankman-Fried向散户投资者出售杠杆加密衍生品，并直接结算他们的交易，将中间金融经纪商排除在这一过程之外。

While there isn’t so much a hard limit on the number of exchanges the crypto market can support, it’s likely that a few main players will emerge over time

虽然对加密市场能够支持的交易所数量没有太多的硬性限制，但随着时间的推移，可能会出现一些主要参与者

Nicky Maan, chief executive of Spectrum Markets

Spectrum Markets首席执行官马安（Nicky Maan）

In crypto, that’s already the norm as most of the exchanges also act as brokers. They not only match trades but manage their clients’ positions — sparking some unease among regulators about the potential for conflicts of interest.

在加密领域，这已经是一种规范，因为大多数交易所也充当经纪人。它们不仅撮合交易，还管理客户的头寸——这引发了监管机构对潜在利益冲突的一些不安。

Bankman-Fried’s idea already has some fans, although regulators have yet to decide if they’re onboard with his suggestion.

班克曼·弗里德的想法已经有了一些粉丝，尽管监管机构尚未决定是否同意他的建议。

Chris Perkins, president of investment management company CoinFund, is in favour, having come round to the idea.

投资管理公司CoinFund的总裁克里斯·帕金斯（Chris Perkins）在接受了这一想法后表示赞成。

He used to run one of the world’s largest futures intermediary businesses when he worked at Citi, the US bank — which is exactly the type of business that Bankman-Fried’s proposal could close down. “I’ve spent my career building one of the most prominent regulated derivatives businesses in the world,” explains Perkins. “I was the intermediary.”

他在美国花旗银行工作时，曾经营着全球最大的期货中介业务之一——这正是班克曼—弗里德的提议可能会关闭的业务类型。珀金斯解释说：“我在职业生涯中建立了世界上最著名的受监管衍生品业务之一。”“我是中间人。”

But, having joined the world of cryptocurrencies, Perkins has had a change of heart. Intermediaries, he believes, should go. “I’m going to be honest with myself and say you know what: [Bankman-Fried] is right.”

但是，在加入加密货币世界后，珀金斯改变了主意。他认为，中介机构应该离开。“我要对自己说实话，班克曼·弗里德是对的。“

Whether regulators agree with Perkin’s conclusion remains to be seen.

监管机构是否同意珀金斯的结论还有待观察。