放松旅行限制对全球航空旅行需求产生了积极影响
Relaxation of travel restrictions has had a positive impact on global air travel demand
国际机场理事会(ACI)于6月28日发表季度评估报告，分析了新冠肺炎疫情对机场的影响。报告表明，放松旅行限制对全球航空旅行需求产生了立竿见影的积极效果。
The Airports Council International (ACI) published its quarterly assessment on 28 June, analysing the impact of the Newcastle Pneumonia outbreak on airports. The report shows that the easing of travel restrictions has had an immediate positive effect on global air travel demand.
近期，许多欧洲和美洲国家取消了大部分防疫措施，放松了旅行限制，使得航空业重燃希望。然而，由于亚太地区主要航空市场依然处于“半封闭”状态，航空运输恢复速度落后于西方国家。这无疑暴露了全球航空业复苏的不均衡性。
The recent lifting of most anti-epidemic measures and easing of travel restrictions in many European and American countries has revived hopes for the airline industry. However, as the major aviation markets in the Asia Pacific region remain "semi-closed", the pace of air transport recovery is lagging behind that of the West. This undoubtedly reveals the uneven nature of the global airline industry's recovery.
机场运输量复苏良好
Airport traffic recovers well
机场运输恢复情况良好，预计2022年全球客运量将显著提高，客运总量将达71亿人次，为2019年客运总量的77%。
Airport traffic is recovering well and global passenger traffic is expected to increase significantly in 2022, with a total of 7.1 billion passengers, 77% of the 2019 total.
由于新冠肺炎疫情，2021年全球客运量比2019年减少了46亿人次，降幅达到50.3%。疫情暴发后的两年时间内全球机场旅客运输量减少了102亿人次。
Due to the Newcastle pneumonia outbreak, global passenger traffic in 2021 is down by 4.6 billion passengers, or 50.3%, compared to 2019. Global airport passenger traffic fell by 10.2 billion in the two years following the outbreak.
ACI总干事Luis Felipe de Oliveira表示，“根据最新数据和我近期的出行经历来看，许多旅行者都渴望恢复出行——初夏的旅游人数就能证明这点。一方面随着时间推移，人们的“假期缺失”感愈加强烈；另一方面随着疫苗接种率的提高及防疫措施的普及，人们对航空出行的信心高涨。在此背景下，放松旅行限制将使人们更倾向于选择航空出行，从而推动行业复苏。眼下许多国家几乎取消了全部防疫措施和出行限制，并逐步恢复常态，2022年下半年航空旅游需求有望实现跃升。”
ACI Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said, "Based on the latest data and my recent travel experience, many travellers are eager to get back to travelling - as evidenced by the number of travellers in early summer. On the one hand, the feeling of 'missing holidays' is growing as time goes on, and on the other hand, confidence in air travel is growing as vaccination rates increase and vaccination measures become more widespread. Against this backdrop, the easing of travel restrictions will make people more inclined to travel by air, thus contributing to the recovery of the industry. With almost all vaccination measures and travel restrictions now lifted in many countries and a gradual return to normalcy, demand for air travel is expected to jump in the second half of 2022."
不确定性依旧存在
Uncertainty remains
即使目前交通运输处于上升趋势，但航空业的复苏仍存在诸多不确定性，尤其是针对中长期发展而言。航空业面临的不利因素包括地缘政治冲突、通胀加剧、经济衰退风险、供应链中断、劳动力短缺及新一轮疫情暴发的可能性。尽管存在下行风险，航空业仍有信心在未来两三年内恢复到2019年的运输水平。
Even though transport is currently on an upward trend, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the recovery of the aviation industry, especially for the medium to long term. Negative factors facing the aviation industry include geopolitical conflicts, rising inflation, the risk of recession, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages and the possibility of a new outbreak of epidemics. Despite the downside risks, the aviation industry remains confident that it will recover to 2019 traffic levels in the next two to three years.
由于奥密克戎变异毒株的扩散，2022年第一季度的市场复苏速度低于预期。基于目前情况，全球客运量预计将于2023年底逐渐达到2019年同期水平，2024年完全恢复至2019年全年水平。
即使目前运输业呈上升趋势，但航空业的复苏仍有很多不确定性，尤其是中长期。航空业面临的负面因素包括地缘政治冲突、通货膨胀上升、经济衰退的风险、供应链中断、劳动力短缺和新的流行病爆发的可能性。尽管存在下行风险，航空业仍然有信心在未来两到三年内恢复到2019年的交通水平。
来源：国际机场理事会（ACI）
Source: Airports Council International (ACI)
各国国内客运量回升带动了航空业的整体复苏，但是亚太地区复苏滞后，国际旅行复苏放缓（全球范围来看，2019年国内客运量占全球总客运量的58%）。预计2023年全球国内客运量(Global domestic passenger traffic)有望达到2019年水平，而全球国际客运量(Global international passenger traffic) 恢复所需时间将比全球国内客运量恢复滞后一年，预计2024年下半年才能达到2019年的水平。（来源：中国民用航空局国际合作服务中心）
The overall recovery in the airline industry is driven by a rebound in domestic passenger traffic across countries, but the recovery in Asia Pacific is lagging and the recovery in international travel is slowing (globally, domestic passenger traffic accounts for 58% of total global passenger traffic in 2019). Global domestic passenger traffic (GDCT) is expected to reach 2019 levels in 2023, while the recovery in global international passenger traffic (GICT) will take one year longer than the recovery in GDCT and is expected to Global international passenger traffic will take one year longer to recover than global domestic passenger traffic, and is expected to reach 2019 levels in the second half of 2024. (Source: International Cooperation Service Centre of the Civil Aviation Administration of China)
