发展氢能产业须警惕三大倾向

Three tendencies to be vigilant in the development of hydrogen energy industry

面对当前高昂的“绿氢”成本，市场有可能倒向成本更低的“灰氢”，不利于“双碳”工作推进。应用场景过于单一制约了产业破局，关键要找到差异化的应用场景，有序推进氢能多元化应用。此外，重复投资风险同样值得警惕。

In the face of the current high cost of "green hydrogen", the market may turn to the lower cost of "grey hydrogen", which is not conducive to the promotion of "double carbon" work. The single application scenario restricts the breaking of the industry. The key is to find differentiated application scenarios and orderly promote the diversified application of hydrogen energy. In addition, the risk of repeated investment is also worthy of vigilance.

一纸规划下，氢能热再起。近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《氢能产业发展中长期规划(2021—2035年)》(以下简称《规划》)，首次明确氢能是未来国家能源体系的重要组成部分，提出稳步推进氢能多元化示范应用，到2025年燃料电池车辆保有量约5万辆等目标。受利好政策影响，A股氢能板块走强。

A paper plan, hydrogen energy heat up again.Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly released the Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the Plan), which made it clear for the first time that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system, and put forward the goal of steadily promoting the diversified demonstration application of hydrogen energy, and the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50000 by 2025. Affected by favorable policies, the A-share hydrogen energy sector strengthened.

据统计，迄今已有北京、上海、山东、湖北等超30个省市发布涉及氢能的规划和政策，明确氢能产业发展目标、路线图或时间表。从一段时间的发展实践来看，各地投资氢能热情高涨，有一哄而上之势，有可能带来一些不利影响。长远看，氢能产业发展要警惕氢源不绿、场景单一、重复投资三大倾向。

According to statistics, so far, more than 30 provinces and cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong and Hubei have issued plans and policies related to hydrogen energy, clarifying the development objectives, roadmap or timetable of hydrogen energy industry. From the development practice for a period of time, the enthusiasm for investing in hydrogen energy is high, and there is a tendency to rush into mass action, which may bring some adverse effects. In the long run, the development of hydrogen energy industry should be vigilant against the three tendencies of non green hydrogen source, single scene and repeated investment.

氢源不绿是首要问题。就氢能本身而言，它是一种来源丰富、绿色低碳、应用广泛的能源，对构建清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系、实现碳达峰碳中和目标，具有重要意义。但由于氢能是一种二次能源，需要通过消耗煤炭、天然气、可再生能源等一次能源才能产生。氢能的清洁程度取决于制取方式。2020年我国氢气来源中，62%为煤制氢，19%为天然气制氢，可再生能源制氢仅占比1%，氢来源亟待“绿化”。大规模推动氢能产业发展，将导致氢需求快速增长，面对当前高昂的“绿氢”成本，市场有可能倒向成本更低的“灰氢”，不利于“双碳”工作推进。

The primary problem is that the hydrogen source is not green. As far as hydrogen energy itself is concerned, it is a kind of energy with rich sources, green, low-carbon and wide application. It is of great significance to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system and achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. However, as hydrogen energy is a secondary energy, it can only be produced by consuming primary energy such as coal, natural gas and renewable energy. The cleanliness of hydrogen energy depends on the preparation method. In 2020, 62% of China's hydrogen sources are coal to hydrogen, 19% are natural gas to hydrogen, and hydrogen production from renewable energy accounts for only 1%. The hydrogen source needs to be "greening". Promoting the development of hydrogen energy industry on a large scale will lead to the rapid growth of hydrogen demand. In the face of the current high cost of "green hydrogen", the market is likely to shift to "grey hydrogen" with lower cost, which is not conducive to the promotion of "double carbon" work.

氢能产业要实现高质量、可持续发展，必须构建清洁化、低碳化、低成本的多元制氢体系，重点发展可再生能源制氢，严格控制化石能源制氢。我国可再生能源装机居全球第一，在“绿氢”供给上有巨大潜力。高成本是当前可再生能源制氢大规模推广的主要难题，随着可再生能源大规模推广和技术进步，有望进一步降低制氢成本。中短期，可鼓励具备风、光、水等清洁能源优势和成本优势的地区，优先发展制氢产业。此外，专门用于制氢的高温核反应堆能在生产大量氢的同时不排放任何二氧化碳，氢能市场形成一定规模后，可采用核反应堆大规模低成本制氢。

In order to achieve high-quality and sustainable development, the hydrogen industry must build a clean, low-carbon and low-cost diversified hydrogen production system, focus on the development of hydrogen production from renewable energy and strictly control the production of hydrogen from fossil energy. China's installed capacity of renewable energy ranks first in the world and has great potential in the supply of "green hydrogen". High cost is the main problem in the large-scale promotion of hydrogen production from renewable energy. With the large-scale promotion of renewable energy and technological progress, it is expected to further reduce the cost of hydrogen production. In the medium and short term, regions with clean energy advantages such as wind, light and water and cost advantages can be encouraged to give priority to the development of hydrogen production industry. In addition, the high-temperature nuclear reactor specially used for hydrogen production can produce a large amount of hydrogen without emitting any carbon dioxide. After the hydrogen energy market has formed a certain scale, nuclear reactors can be used for large-scale and low-cost hydrogen production.

应用场景过于单一也制约了产业破局。在当前已发布氢能产业政策的省市中，几乎都将发展重点聚焦在氢燃料电池汽车及其产业链上，对于氢能在其他领域的应用则很少提及。单一化的应用场景，不仅制约了氢能发挥比较优势、确立市场地位，而且让一些真正脱碳困难的领域进展缓慢。实际上，氢能在乘用车领域的替代优势并不明显。无论是当前高昂的制氢、运输成本，还是滞后的加氢站、运输管网等基础设施建设，都使得氢能汽车在与纯电动汽车的竞争中处于下风。

Too single application scenario also restricts the breaking of the industry. In the provinces and cities that have issued hydrogen energy industry policies at present, almost all focus on the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and their industrial chain, and rarely mention the application of hydrogen energy in other fields. The single application scenario not only restricts hydrogen energy from giving full play to its comparative advantage and establishing its market position, but also slows down the progress of some fields that are really difficult to decarbonize. In fact, the alternative advantage of hydrogen energy in the field of passenger cars is not obvious. Whether it is the current high cost of hydrogen production and transportation, or the lagging infrastructure construction such as hydrogenation station and transportation pipe network, hydrogen energy vehicles are at a disadvantage in the competition with pure electric vehicles.

氢能破局的关键在于找到差异化的应用场景，有序推进氢能多元化应用。在交通领域，氢燃料电池具有不受温度影响、续航里程更长，且补充燃料速度快等优势，可将发展氢燃料电池商用车作为整个氢能燃料电池行业的突破口，并在高寒、低温地区率先推广。氢能在化工、冶炼等一些脱碳难度大的工业领域同样具备绝对优势。“双碳”目标下，“绿氢”为化工、冶金等行业绿色化、高端化发展提供了新思路。要通过科技创新，示范引领，逐步拓展氢能在工业领域应用场景，为我国构建绿色低碳产业体系打下坚实基础。

The key to breaking the situation of hydrogen energy is to find differentiated application scenarios and orderly promote the diversified application of hydrogen energy. In the field of transportation, hydrogen fuel cells have the advantages of being unaffected by temperature, longer mileage and fast fuel replenishment. The development of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles can be regarded as a breakthrough in the whole hydrogen fuel cell industry and take the lead in promoting them in high and low temperature areas. Hydrogen energy also has absolute advantages in some industrial fields with great difficulty in decarbonization, such as chemical industry and smelting. Under the "double carbon" goal, "green hydrogen" provides new ideas for the green and high-end development of chemical, metallurgical and other industries. Through scientific and technological innovation, demonstration and guidance, we should gradually expand the application scenarios of hydrogen energy in the industrial field, so as to lay a solid foundation for building a green and low-carbon industrial system in China.

重复投资风险同样值得警惕。当前我国氢能产业核心技术尚未突破，关键材料依靠进口，短期内尚不具备大规模商业化发展条件。但在氢能产业发展热潮下，一些地方政府头脑发热，忽视地方实际和产业规律，跟风上马氢能项目，将导致氢能产业低水平重复和资源浪费，影响我国氢能产业健康发展。

The risk of repeated investment is also worthy of vigilance. At present, the core technology of China's hydrogen energy industry has not been broken through, the key materials rely on imports, and there are no conditions for large-scale commercial development in the short term. However, under the upsurge of the development of hydrogen energy industry, some local governments are hot headed, ignore local reality and industrial laws, and follow and conduct the hydrogen energy project, which will lead to low-level duplication and waste of resources in the hydrogen energy industry and affect the healthy development of China's hydrogen energy industry.

对此，要积极发挥政府规划引导和政策激励作用，推动地方结合自身基础条件理性布局氢能产业，严禁以建设氢能项目名义“跑马圈地”，实现产业健康有序和集聚发展。

In this regard, we should actively give play to the role of government planning guidance and policy incentives, promote local rational layout of hydrogen energy industry in combination with their own basic conditions, and prohibit "taking over excess land" in the name of hydrogen energy project construction, so as to realize the healthy, orderly and concentrated development of the industry.