从海底捞想到的：餐饮行业为何难建护城河

Thinking from Haidilao: Why Is It Difficult for Catering Industry to Build Moat

在2021年，资本市场的一件大事，就是在香港上市的餐饮行业翘楚海底捞(06862.HK)，股价出现大幅下挫。

In 2021, a major event in the capital market was Haidilao (06862. HK), a Hong Kong-listed leader in the catering industry, whose share price fell sharply.

海底捞公司的主业，是遍布全国的明星级火锅店。在竞争残酷的餐饮行业，海底捞以其优质的服务、独特的文化，成为了明星般的存在。有一本书叫《海底捞你学不会》，曾经在中国的图书出版界风靡一时。

Haidilao Company's main business is star hotpot restaurants all over the country. In the fierce competition in the catering industry, Haidilao has become a star-like existence with its high-quality service and unique culture. There is a book called "Haidilao You Can't Learn", which was once popular in China's book publishing industry.

相对应的，海底捞公司股价，在香港市场也曾经一路走高。从2018年底上市时的大约15港元(2021年6月25日前复权价格，下同)，海底捞的股价到2021年初达到最高85.75港元，让投资者赚了个盆满钵满。

Correspondingly, the share price of Haidilao Company has also gone up all the way in the Hong Kong market. From about HK $15 when it was listed at the end of 2018 (the price of resumption of rights before June 25, 2021, the same below), Haidilao's share price reached a maximum of HK $85.75 by early 2021, making investors a lot of money.

但是，随着海底捞财务数据在2020年出现下滑，投资者对海底捞的热情立即退散，之前过高的估值也得到修正。

However, as the financial data of Haidilao declined in 2020, investors' enthusiasm for Haidilao immediately dissipated and the previous overvaluation was corrected.

在2021年85.75港元的高点，海底捞的PB估值达到惊人的大约45倍，而到了2021年6月25日，这个估值只剩16倍。相应的，公司股价也从最高的85.75港元，下跌到了36.95港元，跌幅达到57%。同时，主要为海底捞提供火锅底料的颐海国际(01579.HK)，股票价格也大幅下挫，从2021年2月的接近150港元，下跌到6月的大约50港元。不过，由于颐海国际之前的巨大涨幅，因此早期买入的投资者仍然有不小的盈利。

At a high of HK $85.75 in 2021, Haidilao's PB valuation reached an astonishing 45 times, while by June 25, 2021, the valuation was only 16 times. Correspondingly, the company's share price also fell from the highest HK $85.75 to HK $36.95, a drop of 57%. At the same time, Yihai International (01579. HK), which mainly provides hotpot condiments for Haidilao, also saw its stock price drop sharply, from nearly HK $150 in February 2021 to about HK $50 in June. However, due to the huge increase before Yihai International, investors who bought early still made a lot of profits.

客户转换成本低

Low customer switching cost

抛开海底捞公司之前过高的估值不谈，单就基本面来说，为什么即使是餐饮行业中明星一般存在的海底捞，都会遭遇逆风？餐饮企业的护城河究竟有多难建？这里，就让我们来一探究竟。

Leaving aside the previous high valuation of Haidilao Company, in terms of fundamentals alone, why does Haidilao, where stars generally exist in the catering industry, encounter headwinds? How difficult is it to build a moat for catering enterprises? Here, let's find out.

在市场经济中，行业与行业、企业与企业之间，生而不平等。有的行业很容易让其中的公司构筑护城河，而有的行业则很难构筑护城河。以服务大众的“口腹之欲”为己任的餐饮行业，则属于非常难以构筑护城河的一类。其中的原因，有许许多多。

In a market economy, industries and industries, enterprises and enterprises are born unequal. Some industries are easy for their companies to build moats, while others are difficult to build moats. The catering industry, which takes serving the public's "appetite" as its own duty, belongs to the category that is very difficult to build moats. There are many reasons for this.

首先，餐饮类企业所面对的客户转换成本极低。当客户可以在各家餐厅之间随意挑选，而不会受到任何阻碍时，餐饮企业的护城河就不容易找到。

First of all, catering enterprises face extremely low customer conversion costs. When customers can choose from restaurant to restaurant without any obstacles, the moat of catering enterprises is not easy to find.

在有些行业，比如工具类电脑软件，客户的转换成本很高。一个学会了Excel或者Matlab(一种数理工作者经常使用的专业编程软件)的工作人员，当面对“Excel和Matlab软件涨价”，或者“有一个相对便宜一些的竞争对手”两个选择时，往往毫不犹豫地会选择多付一些钱：学习一个新软件实在是太难了，而把过去的文件转化成新软件的格式则是难上加难。

In some industries, such as tool computer software, the conversion cost of customers is very high. A worker who has learned Excel or Matlab (a professional programming software often used by mathematical workers), When faced with the two choices of "Excel and Matlab software price increase" or "there is a relatively cheap competitor", they often choose to pay more money without hesitation: it is really too difficult to learn a new software, and it is even more difficult to convert past files into the format of the new software.

但是，餐饮行业的顾客换一个餐厅吃饭，几乎不需要什么成本：他只需要下一次走进一家新的餐厅就可以。为了挽留客户、提高客户的转换成本，不少餐厅都会在顾客用餐后，送出消费券：凭券下次再来可以打折。但是，面对客户极低的转移成本，消费券的作用仍然寥寥。

However, a customer in the catering industry needs little cost to change to a restaurant: he only needs to enter a new restaurant next time. In order to retain customers and raise the conversion cost of customers, many restaurants will send out consumption coupons after customers eat: they can be discounted next time they come with the coupons. However, in the face of the extremely low transfer cost of customers, the role of consumer coupons is still very small.

比客户转移成本低更糟糕的是，对于餐饮企业来说，客户的口味还经常更换。也就是说，客户有更换供应商的冲动。

Worse than the lower transfer cost of customers, for catering enterprises, customers' tastes are often changed. In other words, customers have the impulse to change suppliers.

同样，牛奶行业也有类似的属性：虽然没人阻止你去喝另一个牌子的牛奶，但是每个牌子的牛奶喝起来口味也都差不多，换来换去虽然没有什么坏处，却也并没有多少好处。

Similarly, the milk industry has similar attributes: although no one prevents you from drinking another brand of milk, each brand of milk tastes the same, and there is no harm in exchanging it, but it is not much good.

但是，比起牛奶行业，餐饮行业则要倒霉得多：客户天生喜欢来回换着吃。最近中餐吃多了，我们去吃西餐吧。天天吃火锅有点腻，我们去改个粤菜如何？想想看，这种场景是不是很常见？

However, compared with the milk industry, the catering industry is much more unlucky: customers naturally like to change food back and forth. Recently, we have eaten too much Chinese food. Let's go to eat western food. It's a bit bored to eat hot pot every day. How about we change to Cantonese food? Think about it, is this kind of scene very common?

这种“客户主动转换供应商”的冲动，导致在餐饮行业中，客户会天然地选择不同的餐厅，天然比较不同餐厅之间的口味，也就导致餐饮公司之间的竞争巨大。类似的，在民宿行业，也存在同样的现象。出去玩的人总想着换个民宿感受一下：这和讲究效率的商务旅行完全不同。

This impulse of "customers actively changing suppliers" leads to customers naturally choosing different restaurants and naturally comparing the tastes of different restaurants in the catering industry, which also leads to huge competition among catering companies. Similarly, the same phenomenon exists in the residential care industry. People who go out to play always want to change their hostel to feel it: this is completely different from efficient business travel.

容易被竞争对手抄袭

Easily copied by competitors

在另一个角度上，餐饮行业又很难取得专利。

On the other hand, it is difficult for the catering industry to obtain patents.

在智能手机、汽车、芯片、软件等行业中，专利作为保护企业的一种手段，被公司们广泛应用。但是，在餐饮行业中，企业很难给自己的产品申请到专利，只要比较大众的菜品都不行：你总不能说小葱拌豆腐是你的专利吧？而如果餐饮企业真做出一些太小众的菜品，顾客的接受度往往又会很低。同时，竞争对手对菜品进行改良、绕过专利保护，也是一件很容易的事情。

In smart phones, automobiles, chips, software and other industries, patents are widely used by companies as a means to protect enterprises. However, in the catering industry, it is very difficult for enterprises to apply for patents for their own products, as long as they are more popular dishes: you can't say that shallot mixed with tofu is your patent, can you? However, if catering enterprises really make some dishes that are too small, the customer's acceptance will often be very low. At the same time, it is also easy for competitors to improve the dishes and bypass patent protection.

其实，餐饮行业中任何一个小小的改进，都很容易被竞争对手抄袭。

In fact, any small improvement in the catering industry is easily copied by competitors.

这一方面是抄袭成本极低的原因：一家烧烤店开始给顾客送擦眼镜布，很快所有的烧烤店都学会了。另一方面则是餐饮行业过于透明所导致的：任何竞争对手都可以假扮顾客走进你的餐厅，学习你所有服务顾客的技巧，还可以打包你新发明的菜品带回家研究，你拿什么保守秘密？而对于工业企业来说，对实验室进行保密，是再常见不过的操作。

On the one hand, this is the reason why the cost of plagiarism is extremely low: one barbecue shop began to send glasses wiping cloth to customers, and soon all barbecue shops learned it. On the other hand, it is caused by the over-transparency of the catering industry: any competitor can enter your restaurant pretending to be a customer, learn all your customer service skills, and pack your newly invented dishes and take them home for research. What secret do you take? For industrial enterprises, it is the most common operation to keep the laboratory confidential.

餐饮行业难建护城河的另一个原因，在于不容易产生规模优势。

Another reason why it is difficult to build moats in the catering industry is that it is not easy to produce scale advantages.

对于有些企业来说，巨额的资本投入会成为这些企业的护城河，也就是经济学中的规模优势。在保险行业，每个保险公司都需要构建自己的后台部门、投资部门等。而在构建这些部门时，小保险公司必然难以和大保险公司做得一样好。而如果需要做得一样好，小保险公司就会需要投入相对于自己收入来说更多的钱。

For some enterprises, the huge capital investment will become the moat of these enterprises, which is the scale advantage in economics. In the insurance industry, each insurance company needs to build its own back-office department, investment department, etc. However, when constructing these departments, small insurance companies will inevitably find it difficult to do as well as large insurance companies. However, if they need to do as well, small insurance companies will need to invest more money than their income.

但是，对于餐饮企业来说，规模优势则十分不明显。餐饮企业的成本主要由门店房租、员工工资、食材、税费组成。由于餐饮企业需要到处布局，因此每个门店都需要和不同的房东谈判，很难取得规模优势。

However, for catering enterprises, the scale advantage is not obvious. The cost of catering enterprises mainly consists of store rent, employee wages, food materials and taxes. As catering enterprises need to be distributed everywhere, each store needs to negotiate with different landlords, which makes it difficult to obtain scale advantages.

而在食材方面，尽管规模巨大的企业可以依靠自己的规模优势，和供应商谈到一个好一点价钱，但是一则降价幅度有限，二则食材占餐饮企业成本的比例也不高。因此，对于餐饮企业来说，规模效应，也就是越大的企业成本越低的商业规律，虽然不能说没有，但是并不明显。

In terms of food materials, although large-scale enterprises can rely on their own scale advantages to talk about a better price with suppliers, one is limited in price reduction, and the other is that food materials account for a low proportion of the cost of catering enterprises. Therefore, for catering enterprises, the scale effect, that is, the larger the enterprise, the lower the cost of the business rule, although it cannot be said that there is no, but it is not obvious.

餐饮市场不断变化

The catering market is constantly changing.

在中国市场，餐饮企业还面临两个在成熟市场不容易见到的挑战：变幻的消费者和层出不穷的对手。

In the Chinese market, catering enterprises also face two challenges that are not easy to see in mature markets: changing consumers and endless rivals.

在一些西方成熟市场，消费者的口味是比较固定的。其背后主要的原因，是这些国家的经济已经多年处于成熟阶段，人均收入的变动早已超过了“多赚点钱就吃个好的改善伙食”的阶段。但是，在中国市场，随着中国人均GDP在2020年首次跨过1万美元大关，人们的饮食习惯随着收入的提升，一直在发生巨大的变化。

In some mature western markets, consumers' tastes are relatively fixed. The main reason behind this is that the economies of these countries have been in a mature stage for many years, and the changes in per capita income have already exceeded the stage of "earning more money and eating a good and improved food". However, in the Chinese market, with China's GDP per capita crossing the US $10,000 mark for the first time in 2020, people's eating habits have been undergoing great changes with the increase of income.

以必胜客为例，这家主打披萨饼的餐饮企业，在刚进入中国市场时受到追捧。在必胜客1990年首次进入中国市场时，中国的人均GDP只有几百美元，是2020年的几十分之一。在人均收入不高的上个世纪，“发工资了去吃个必胜客的披萨”，对于不少工薪收入者来说是有吸引力的。

Take Pizza Hut as an example. This pizza-oriented catering company was sought after when it first entered the Chinese market. When Pizza Hut first entered the Chinese market in 1990, China's GDP per capita was only a few hundred dollars, a few tenths of that in 2020. In the last century, when the per capita income was not high, "paid to eat Pizza Hut's pizza" was attractive to many wage earners.

但是，随着人均收入不断增加，人们的餐饮消费也不断升级变化：这种变化至少在人均GDP达到2万美元之前，是会一直存在的。也就是说，在中国市场，消费者对餐厅的喜好不停的在变。而在一些成熟市场，由于人均GDP早就已经达到五六万美元的水平，人们在饮食方面的支出早已到顶，“赚了钱吃点更好的”已经不成为社会主流，“赚钱了换个别墅、合伙买个游艇”，成为成熟社会的消费新趋势。

However, with the continuous increase of per capita income, people's food and beverage consumption is also continuously upgrading and changing: this change will exist at least until the per capita GDP reaches 20,000 US dollars. In other words, in the Chinese market, consumers' preferences for restaurants are constantly changing. However, in some mature markets, as the GDP per capita has already reached the level of 50,000 to 60,000 US dollars, people's expenditure on food has already reached its peak, "making money to eat better" has not become the mainstream of society, "making money to change villas and buying yachts in partnership" has become the new consumption trend in mature society.

在这种情况下，中国市场的餐饮企业，就面临更加变幻的消费者需求。今天红火的企业，可能并不是因为开发出了多么有护城河的餐饮范式，而是由于它所提供的餐饮服务，正好符合这个阶段消费者的喜好。但是，当消费者的喜好在几年之后发生变化时，情况就会变得不一样。

Under such circumstances, catering enterprises in the Chinese market are facing more changeable consumer demand. Today's booming enterprises may not be due to the development of a moat catering paradigm, but due to the catering services it provides, which are exactly in line with the preferences of consumers at this stage. However, when consumer preferences change after a few years, the situation will become different.

在另一方面，中国市场的特殊性还在于，中国是一个美食大国。去过英国、北欧的人会知道，当地的饮食非常单一、简单，餐饮企业不容易受到太多新奇美食的挑战。但是在中国，八大菜系各有特色，烹饪二十八法样样不同。

On the other hand, the particularity of the Chinese market lies in the fact that China is a big food country. People who have been to Britain and Northern Europe will know that the local diet is very single and simple, and catering enterprises are not easily challenged by too many novel delicacies. However, in China, the eight major cuisines have their own characteristics, and the 28 cooking methods are all different.

这种繁多的餐饮品类，一方面导致中国餐饮市场竞争异常激烈，另一方面也培养了消费者更高的口味包容度。当他们面对来自东南亚、日本、欧洲和北美的各路餐饮口味时，吃过国内各类食物的消费者，也不在乎尝试一下。这种对于新餐饮品类的开放态度，也是一些西方国家消费者所没有的。

On the one hand, this wide variety of catering categories has led to extremely fierce competition in China's catering market; On the other hand, it has also cultivated consumers' higher taste tolerance. When they face various food tastes from Southeast Asia, Japan, Europe and North America, consumers who have eaten various kinds of domestic food do not care to give it a try. This kind of open attitude towards new catering categories is also not available to consumers in some western countries.

餐饮企业管理难度高

It is difficult to manage catering enterprises.

餐饮企业的另一个问题，在于管理难度极高。

Another problem for catering enterprises lies in the extremely difficult management.

对于有些企业来说，暂时的管理失效是可以允许的。比如，一家以指数基金为主打业务的基金公司，并不需要太多日常的管理：基金经理只要照着指数配股票就行了。哪怕管理失误导致基金经理心有怨言，事情在一两年里也不至于变得太糟糕。

For some enterprises, temporary management failure is allowed. For example, a fund company that focuses on index funds does not need too much daily management: fund managers only need to allocate stocks according to indexes. Even if management mistakes lead to complaints from fund managers, things will not get too bad in a year or two.

但是，餐饮企业则不同。一旦企业管理松懈，立即会影响顾客的口碑，而当这种口碑一传十、十传百的时候，就会形成一种社会印象。这种印象会导致企业收入锐减，而对于高周转的餐饮企业来说，锐减的收入立即会造成现金流下降，对管理难度造成更大的挑战。这种恶性循环的速度如此之快，可能只有流行服饰行业可以类比。

However, catering enterprises are different. Once the management of the enterprise is lax, it will immediately affect the public praise of customers, and when this public praise passes from one word to another, it will form a social impression. This impression will lead to a sharp drop in enterprise income, and for catering enterprises with high turnover, the sharp drop in income will immediately lead to a drop in cash flow, posing greater challenges to management difficulties. The speed of this vicious circle is so fast that only the popular clothing industry can match it.

当然，餐饮行业难建护城河，不代表完全没有护城河。对于餐饮行业来说，一个比较可靠的护城河，来自于标准化餐饮的品牌效应。

Of course, the difficulty in building moats in the catering industry does not mean that there is no moat at all. For the catering industry, a relatively reliable moat comes from the brand effect of standardized catering.

对于一些可以标准化的餐饮品类，比如炸鸡、汉堡、中式简餐、火锅，顾客的复购率(重复购买的概率)往往容易更高，同时对菜品的变化要求不太高。这时候，一些有品牌的餐饮企业，就比没有品牌的餐饮企业更容易赢得客户，因为品牌的存在导致顾客可以降低自己选择新餐厅可能产生的成本。这种品牌效应的存在，也就是为什么肯德基、麦当劳等企业，比正餐型餐饮企业更容易获得顾客忠诚度的原因。

For some food and beverage categories that can be standardized, such as fried chicken, hamburger, Chinese simple meal and hot pot, the re-purchase rate (probability of re-purchase) of customers is often higher, and the requirements for changes in dishes are not too high. At this time, some catering enterprises with brands are easier to win customers than catering enterprises without brands, because the existence of brands leads customers to reduce the possible costs of choosing new restaurants. The existence of this brand effect is why KFC, McDonald's and other enterprises are easier to obtain customer loyalty than dinner catering enterprises.

总结来说，餐饮行业是一个非常难以找到护城河的行业，唯一比较容易依赖的品牌护城河，也仅限于一小部分餐饮品类。这个行业竞争之激烈，在各个行业中是比较高的。

To sum up, the catering industry is an industry that is very difficult to find moats. The only brand moat that is relatively easy to rely on is limited to a small number of catering categories. The fierce competition in this industry is relatively high among all industries.

但是，古语云“塞翁失马焉知非福”，有失则必有得。餐饮行业不容易寻找护城河的特点，也同时导致了新锐的餐饮企业，更容易在市场中杀出一片自己的天地。

However, the old saying goes, "A blessing in disguise is a blessing in disguise", and a blessing is a blessing. It is not easy for the catering industry to find the characteristics of moats, which also leads to new catering enterprises, making it easier for them to fight their own way out of the market.

正所谓“时来天地皆同力”，当一个餐饮企业所提供的服务，正好迎合消费者在一段时间的喜好、正好符合商业社会发展的阶段时，这个被命运之神眷顾的餐饮企业，就能够迅速从没有多少护城河的竞争对手那里，抢到巨大的市场份额。而在这“你争我抢”的商业态势中，餐饮这个古老的行业，也就变得如此新意迭出、精彩连连。

As the saying goes, "all the time comes with the same force". When the services provided by a catering enterprise cater to the preferences of consumers for a period of time and conform to the stage of commercial and social development, this catering enterprise favored by fate can quickly grab a huge market share from competitors who do not have many moats. However, in this "you fight for me" business situation, catering, an ancient industry, has become so innovative and exciting.

(作者系九圜青泉科技首席投资官)

(The writer is the chief investment officer of Jiuli Qingquan Technology)

（文章来源：证券时报）

(Source: Securities Times)