原油配额调控发挥积极作用

Crude oil quota

今年第二批配额数量同比大增，在经济恢复趋势下，原油配额数量继续发挥积极作用。

The second batch of quotas increased significantly year-on-year this year. he quota of crude oil continued to play an active role.

近日，商务部下发年内第二批原油非国营贸易进口允许量数额以及下发具体情况，总量达5269万吨，并公布了2022年二批原油非国营贸易进口允许量安排表。至此，两批配额都已成功下发，为地方炼厂生产提供了保障。

Recently, the Ministry of Commerce issued the second batch of crude oil non-state-run trade import allowance and the specific conditions of the issuance, and announced the schedule of the second batch wance in 2022. So far, the two batches of quotas have been successfully issued, providing a guarantee for the production of local refineries.

涨势明显

it is obvious

今年第二批原油非国营贸易进口允许量于近日发布，总量为5269万吨，同比去年3524万吨的数量增加1745万吨，大涨49.5%。其中传统地炼(含中化工)下发3241万吨，同比下降16%;民营大炼化下发1600万吨，同比上涨167%;其他企业下发428万吨，同比上涨237%。

This year's second batch of crude oil non-state trade import allowance recently released, The traditional refining ssued 32 million 410 thousand tons, down 16%; Private large refining issued 16 million tons, up 167% year on year; Other enterprises issued 4.28 million tons, up 237% year-on-year.

叠加今年已下发的首批允许量，商务部前两批共下发16172万吨，较去年前两批15783万吨的额度，同比增加2.5%，涨势十分明显。

the Ministry of Commerce issued 161.72 million tons in the first two batches, an increase of 2.5% compared with the quota of 157.83 million tons in the first two batches last year, with a very obvious increase.

根据隆众资讯分析，本次的第二批原油非国营贸易进口允许量与往年市场各方聚焦原油配额下发存在不同。数据显示从原油配额下发的主体和数量上看，传统地炼和民营大炼化配额此消彼长趋势延续，其中叠加前两批，传统独立炼厂占61%，民营大炼化占比36%，其他企业主体只下发了3%。尽管江苏盛虹炼化投产及原油采购进度均不及预期影响首批配额使用进度，进而拖累第二批配额下发，但受浙石化二期全面投产支撑，第二批大炼化配额下发数量仍稳步增长。

According to the analysis of Longzhong Information, the import allowance of the second batch of crude oil for non-state trade is different from thatbody and quantity of crude oil quota issued, the trend of traditional lrivate large refining and chemical quota continues, among which the first two batches are superimposed, traditional independent refineries account for 61%, private large refining and ch6%, and other enterprise entities only issue 3%. Although the production and crude oil procurement progress of Jiangsu Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. were less than expected, which affected the use progress of the first batch of quotas, thus dragging down the issuance of the second batch of quotas, supported by the full production of Phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, the issuance of the second batch of large refining and chemical quotas still increased steadily.

关于地方炼厂配额下降的原因，专家也指出，今年上半年地炼原油配额使用进度普遍偏慢，且俄乌局势深刻影响全球包括国内的原油贸易格局，所以部分地方炼油厂得到的第一批原油配额仍有余量。同时原油贸易市场部分参与主体也发生了变化，市场各方对于第二批配额的关注度与配额下发的紧迫性均较往年也有所下降。报道显示，今年上半年因多重因素影响，独立炼厂开工率及原料需求均低于正常时期。数据显示，今年1—5月中国独立炼厂常减压开工率在62.8%，较去年同期下降13.6个百分点;传统地炼及贸易商进口原料总计为4236万吨，较去年同期减少31%。

the first half of this year was generally slow, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine deeply affected the global including domestic crude oil trade pattern, so some local refineries still have a surplus of the first batch of crude oil quotas. At the same time, some participants in the crude oil and the attention of all parties in the market to the second batch of quotas and the urgency of quota issuance have also decreased compared with previous years. Reported that in the first half of this year due to multiple factors, independent refinery operating rate and raw material demand are lower than normal. in China's independent refineries in January-May this year was 62.8%, down 13.6 percentage points from the same period last year. Traditional refiners and traders imported 42.36 million tons of raw materials, down 31 percent from the same period last year.

“国际油价上升，成本风险大，导致炼化厂动力不足、积极性不高，致使配额使用不如预期，这就是此次配额数量上涨的重要原因。”中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院副教授金镭表示。

resulting in lower quota utilization than expected, which is an important reason for the increase of quota quantity this time." said Jin Lei, associate professor at the School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing).

灵活调整

Flexible adjustment

从2002年开始，我国每年都会下发非国营原油进口配额，允许非国营贸易企业从事部分数量原油的进口，规定2002年要有400万吨成品油、720万吨原油的非国营贸易进口配额，并从2002年起逐年增加配额。拿到原油进口配额的企业应按照规定报送原油进口、加工使用及主要产品情况，严格执行流向管理，并相应承担成品油市场保供责任。

Since 2002, It is stipulated that there shall be 4 million tons of refined oil products and 7.2 million tons of crude oil in 2002, and the quotas shall Get the crude oil import quotas of enterprises should be submitted in accordance with the provisions of crude oil imports, processing and use of the main products, strict implementation of flow management, and the corresponding commitment to the product oil market for the responsibility.

原油非国营贸易进口允许量下发至今已有10年之久，其中配额数量在每年都会发生不同变化，其背后也存在着不同原因。

It has been 10 years since was issued, among which the quota quantity changes differently every year, and there are different reasons behind it.

“从本次下发的配额来看，比起第一批配额同比的明显下降，第二批增加了40%左右，有明显回升。在上一批次下降的基础上，这是一个正常又合理的决定。”金镭表示。

"From the point of view of the quotas issued this time, compared with the obvoe of the first batch of quotas, the second batch has increased by aboing a significant recovery." This is a normal and reasonable decision based on the decline in the previous batch. " Gold radium said.

据了解，每年年底商务部都会根据年内总体情况适当分析、预测，确定并公布下一年非国营原油进口配额的下发总量，并在下一年中按具体情况进行调整。

It is understood that at the end of each year, the Ministry of Comm total amount of non-state-owned crude oil import quotas for the next year according to the overall situation of the year, and adjust them according to specific conditions in the next year.

2021年底商务部发布了新一年原油非国营贸易进口允许量相关信息，其中制定的《2022年原油非国营贸易进口允许量总量、申请条件和申请程序》(2021年第36号)中明确指出，2022年原油非国营贸易进口允许量为24300万吨，为下一年配额数量的分配做出指导。

At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Commerce issued the relevant information on the import allowar, in which the Total Amount, Application Conditions and Application Procedures for Non-state Trade Import AllowanceOil in 2022 (No.36 of 2021) clearly pointed out that the import allowance of crude oil non-state trade in 2022 was 243 million tons, which provided guidance for the allocation of quota quantity in the next year.

2022年第一批次较2021年同期削减11%，有数家地炼暂未获得首批配额，出现了罕见的首批即存在零下发情况。此外其他获得配额的地炼下发比例在50%~70%，整体下发幅度较去年也有所下行。

The first batch in 2022 was reduced by 11% compared with the same period in 2021, and several local refineries did not obtain the first batch quand there waout any quota. In addition, the distribution proportion of other local refineries that have obtained quotas is 50%~70%, and the overall distribution range is also down compared with last year.

“为保障各地方炼厂更好地生产经营，商务部便会根据前一次下发状况做出相应调整。上一批若下发数量有所降低，下一批就会顺势提高。”金镭认为。

"In order to euction and operation of local refineries, the Ministry of Commerce will make costments according to the previous issuance." If the quantity of the last batch is reduced, the next batch will increase accordingly. " Gold radium thought.

在配额严格管控的大背景之下，地炼配额使用更有计划性，加上地缘局势导致油价长期居于高位，大大推高了地方炼油厂的原油采购成本甚至运营成本，促使高油价明显压制买方。“今年以来国内疫情发生阶段性爆发，严重冲击了终端需求，进而给地炼成品油销售带来了直接利空影响。因此今年上半年特别是二季度中，地炼在高油价、低利润、低需求等叠加影响之下原油采购明显更加谨慎，进而拖累原油配额使用进度整体慢于往年。”隆众资讯原油分析师说。

Under the background of strict quota control, the use of local refining quota is more planned, and the geographical situation leads to the long-term high oil eatly pushes up the crude oil procurement cost and even the operating cost of local refineries, and promotes the high oil price to obviously suppress the buyer. "Sing of this year, the outbreak of doms seriously impacted the terminal demand, thus bringing mpact on the sales of refined oil products. Therefore, in the first half of this year, especially in the second quarter, undence of high oil price, low profit and low demand, the crude oil procurement of the local refining company was obvis, thus dragging down the overall progress of crude oil quota utilization slower than in previous years. " Longzhong information crude oil analyst said.

趋势向好

The trend is getting better

“上半年国际原油市场格局发生了很大变化，从石油安全角度上看，保持一定供应数量是国家非常重视的问题。第二批配额数量顺势提升，在炼化企业根据形势获取更多资源的基础上提供了一个较大的空间，促进了企业在市场中的灵活度。”中国石油大学(北京)能源经济与金融研究所所长郭海涛表示。

"In the first half of the year, the international crude oil market pattern has undergone great changes. From the perspective of oil security, mapply quantity is an issue that the state attaches great importance to. The second batch of quotas was increased in line with the situation, whicger space for refining and chemical enterprises to obtain morces according to the situation, and promoted the flexibility of enterprises in the market. " Guo Haitao, director of the Instiergy Economics and Finance at China University of Petroleum (Beijing), said.

在原油非国营贸易进口允许量总量机制启动之前，地方炼厂得不到充足炼油，就会有个别企业投机取巧，用石脑油进行炼油，扰乱市场秩序。而在下发配额之后，地方炼厂原油充足，从而形成一个以竞争促发展的形势，提升了市场活跃度，这对行业发展有重要的影响。

Before the start of the total amount mechanism of crude oil import allowance for non-state-owneif local refineries do not get sufficient oil refining, there will be indinterprises taking advantage of op to refine oil with naphtha and disrupt trefineries had sufficient crude oil, thus forming a situation ovelopment through competition and enhancing market activity, which has an important impact on the development of the industry.

据金联创分析，进入下半年后，随着疫情影响减弱、企业复工复产、终端需求回暖、经济进一步复苏，加之新投产的民营大炼化逐步实现量产下，预计国内独立炼厂开工率或稳步上升至70%，原料需求亦将同步提升。而第二批原油配额的及时落地，有助于提高独立炼厂对于远期现货订货积极性，预计后期原油配额整体执行进度亦将有所提速。

According to the analysis of Jinlian Chuangye, after entering the second half of the year, with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic situation, the resumptioinal demand, the further recovery of economy, and the alization of mass production of the newly put into operation prrge recal industry, it is expected tpere of domestic indeneries will steadily rise to 70%, and the dr raw materials will also increase synchronously. The timely landing of the second batch of crude oil quotas will help improve the enthusiasm of independent refineries for forward spot orders, and it is expected that the overall implementation progress of crude oil quotas will also be accelerated in the later period.

“根据不同背景灵活调整应对新的国际市场形势，才能使国内市场保持稳定。因此在下半年需求回升的趋势下，下一批配额数量不会有明显下降，应会大概率持平。”郭海涛表示。

"To adapt to the new international markon flexibly according to different backgrounds can mastic market stable." Therefe trend of demand recovery half och of quotas will not have a significant decline, and there should be a high probability that they will be flat. " Guo Haitao said.

目前生产指数与集体配置增量在上半年经历了一个较大回落，而下半年随着疫情控制或是新政策出台等措施，经济发展会有一个向好的趋势，整体炼化行业也会得到一些反弹。在“这种市场向好的态势下，炼厂需求得到提升，无论国有企业和民营企业都会增强积极性和开工率，使得原油配额数量的使用相应提高。所以下一批原油配额数量应当会延续正常量，且可能有所增长。”金镭表示。

At present, the production index and collective allocation increment hav large decline in the first half of the year, while in the second half of the yeepidem, the econveround. In this way, the market will continue to grow, and both state-owned and private enterprises willotivated to increase their operating rates, thus increasing the use of crude oil quotas. Therefore, the next batch of crude oil quota should continue the normal amount, and may increase. " Gold radium said

责任编辑：周志霞

Responsibltor: Zhou Zhixia