VCI维持2025年前景预期

VCI maintains 2025 outlook

中化新网讯

Sinochem New Network Report

近日，德国化学工业协会(VCI)表示，尽管德国化学及制药行业年初业绩“好于预期”，但该机构仍维持其2025年预期不变。VCI表示：“今年的化工生产可能会停滞不前，行业销量或略有下降。如果关税冲突不进一步升级，化工行业前景最早可能在今年就会好转。”

Recently, the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) stated that despite the "better than expected" performance of Germany's chemical and pharmaceutical industries at the beginning of the year, the organization has maintained its 2025 forecast unchanged. VCI said, "Chemical production may stagnate this year, and industry sales may decline slightly. If the tariff conflict does not escalate further, the prospects for the chemical industry could improve as early as this year."

VCI表示，各国化工行业2025年第一季度的生产和销售都出现大幅增长，弥补了前几个月的经济衰退。然而，VCI认为，许多公司担心未来几个月还会遭遇挫折。该机构报告称：“美国政府不稳定的关税政策正在减少化学工业及其客户的出口机会。此外，用于对美国出口的中国商品可能会越来越多地转向欧洲，并增加欧洲的进口压力。”

VCI noted that the chemical industry across countries saw a significant increase in production and sales in the first quarter of 2025, making up for the economic recession in previous months. However, VCI believes many companies fear setbacks in the coming months. The organization reported, "The U.S. government's unstable tariff policies are reducing export opportunities for the chemical industry and its customers. Additionally, Chinese goods intended for export to the U.S. may increasingly shift to Europe, increasing import pressure in Europe."

德国今年一季度化学品产量(不包括制药)同比下降0.9%，但环比增长4.7%。化学及制药产量同比增长1.2%，环比增长6.7%。生产者价格指数同比上涨1.1%，环比上涨0.6%。VCI表示，德国化工产能利用率为78.2%，而2024年第四季度为74.7%，不过仍低于盈利阈值。今年第一季度的好转几乎影响了所有部门，并受到德国和国外业务强劲的推动。

In Germany, chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) fell 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter but rose 4.7% quarter-on-quarter. Chemical and pharmaceutical production increased 1.2% year-on-year and 6.7% quarter-on-quarter. The producer price index rose 1.1% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. VCI stated that Germany's chemical capacity utilization was 78.2%, compared with 74.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, though still below the profitability threshold. The first-quarter improvement affected nearly all sectors and was driven by strong operations in both Germany and abroad.

德国化学及制药行业的总销售额环比增长4.4%，同比增长1.8%，达到548亿欧元。德国国内销售额环比增长4.3%，同比增长2.2%，而德国以外其他国家的销售额环比增长4.5%，同比增长1.6%。

Total sales of Germany's chemical and pharmaceutical industries rose 4.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year to €54.8 billion. Domestic sales in Germany rose 4.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.2% year-on-year, while sales in other countries outside Germany rose 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year.