化企看淡全球化工行业前景
Chemical companies bearish on the prospects of the global chemical industry
近日，在瑞士信贷举办的全球专用化学品和基础化学品大会上，陶氏化学和利安德巴赛尔的代表表示，欧洲的市场状况在过去一个月左右急剧恶化，亚洲的市场状况仍很糟糕，美国市场状况也不确定。今年剩余时间，全球化工行业前景并不明朗。
Market conditions in Europe have deteriorated sharply over the past month or so, and market conditions in Asia remain poor, representatives from Dow Chemical and LyondellBasell said at the Global Specialty and Basic Chemicals Conference held by Credit Suisse recently, the US market conditions are also uncertain. The outlook for the global chemical industry is uncertain for the rest of the year.
会上，利安德巴赛尔全球烯烃和聚烯烃业务执行副总裁肯·兰恩表示：“在过去6周左右的时间里，化工产品需求和利润率大幅下降，特别是我们在欧洲的业务。我们目前看到了通货膨胀和能源价格的负面影响。这显然压缩了我们的利润，也降低了需求。”兰恩表示，尽管欧洲的市场环境不好，但由于一体化程度的提高，利安德巴赛尔在该地区的资产继续盈利。不过，该公司在法国贝尔莱唐的蒸汽裂解装置的非计划停工预计将使公司第三季度息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)减少约1亿美元。
At the meeting, Ken Lane, executive vice president of Leander Basell's global olefins and polyolefins business, said: "Over the past six weeks or so, demand for chemicals and margins have fallen significantly, particularly in our European business. We are currently seeing the negative impact of inflation and energy prices. This has obviously squeezed our margins and reduced demand. Mr Rann said that Despite poor market conditions in Europe, LyondellBasell's assets in the region continue to be profitable due to increased integration. However, the unplanned shutdown of the company's steam cracker in Ber-let-Ton, France, is expected to reduce the company's third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by about $100 million.
亚洲的市场情况没有恶化，但也没有改善。兰恩指出：“在亚洲市场，我们看不到明显的增长，而是看到了盈利方面的挑战。”对于美国市场，他补充称：“尽管美国的消费需求一直相当健康，但耐用品需求仍然很低，出口经济目前也很糟糕。出口市场的压力已经开始传导回美国市场。美洲的利润率也在压缩。”
Market conditions in Asia have not worsened, but neither have they improved. "We don't see significant growth in the Asian market, we see profitability challenges," Mr Lane said. For the United States market, he added: “While U.S. consumer demand has been fairly healthy, durable goods demand remains low and the export economy is currently in a dire state. Pressure on the export market has started to pass back into the U.S. market. Margins are also compressing in the Americas.”
陶氏化学总裁兼首席财务官霍华德·昂格莱德也给出了类似的预测，并宣布陶氏化学预计第三季度EBITDA和净营收将比目前分析师的普遍预期低6亿美元。这一数字与预估的24亿美元EBITDA相比减少了25%，与预估的144亿美元净营收相比减少4%。
Howard Unglade, president and chief financial officer of Dow Chemical, made a similar forecast and announced that Dow expects third-quarter EBITDA and net revenue to be $600 million below current analyst consensus estimates. That's down 25% from an estimated $2.4 billion in EBITDA and 4% from an estimated $14.4 billion in net revenue.
昂格莱德表示：“自从我们第二季度财报电话会议以来，持续的地缘政治紧张局势、更高的能源和原料成本，以及创纪录的通胀等因素，确实削弱了欧洲终端市场的需求和消费者支出，欧元区消费者信心目前继续处于负值。最近，欧洲采购经理指数收缩至50以下，整体经济和工业活动正在显著放缓。”他认为，中国最近的降息和疫情后经济复苏将提振经济增长直至2023年，但就目前而言，亚洲的情况仍然很糟糕。尽管美国的情况要好得多，但高通胀和物流限制已将PMI推至2020年年中以来的最低水平，而不断上升的利率导致7~8月的新屋开工数下降了近10%。
"Since our second-quarter earnings call, continued geopolitical tensions, higher energy and material costs, and record inflation have really dented demand and consumer spending in European end markets, with eurozone consumer confidence continuing to be negative," Mr Ungerald said. Recently, the European purchasing managers 'index has shrunk below 50 and overall economic and industrial activity is slowing significantly." He believes China's recent rate cuts and post-pandemic recovery will boost growth through 2023, but for now, things are still bad in Asia. While the U.S. is faring much better, high inflation and logistical constraints have pushed the PMI to its lowest level since mid-2020, while rising interest rates caused housing starts to fall by nearly 10% in July-August.
今年8月，陶氏化学宣布暂时将其全球聚乙烯产能开工率降低15%。昂格莱德表示：“我们降低了开工率，以使生产与供应链、物流限制以及需求相一致。我们在整个行业中也看到了这种情况。陶氏化学已经看到30多家亚欧生产商削减了产量。”
In August, Dow announced that it would temporarily cut its global polyethylene capacity operating rate by 15%. "We have reduced operating rates to align production with the supply chain, logistical constraints and demand," says Mr Ungerald. We see this across the industry as well. Dow has seen more than 30 Asian and European producers cut production.
