猪肉概念逆势拉升，产能去化有望加速

Pork Concept Stocks Rally against the Market Trend, and the de-capacity is expected to accelerate

【环球网财经综合报道】8月25日，A股主要指数震荡调整，猪肉概念逆势走强。截至午间收盘，板块上涨1.71%，涨幅居概念板块前列。个股方面，金字火腿涨近6%，ST龙大涨超5%，神农集团涨超3%，牧原股份、温氏股份、新五丰等多股涨超2%。

[Huanqiu.com Finance Comprehensive Report] On August 25th,the major A-share indexes fluctuated and adjusted, and the pork concept stocks strengthened against the trend. As of the midday close, the sector gained 1.71%, ranking the forefront of the concept sector. Among individual stocks, Jinzi Ham surged nearly 6%, Shandong Longda jumped more than 5%, Shennong Group gained over 3%, and Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Wellfuland and several other stocks each advanced more than 2%.

猪价方面，国家统计局8月24日发布数据显示，2026年8月中旬全国生猪（外三元）价格为11.0元/千克，环比上涨5.8%。8月24日全国外三元生猪均价报11.17元/公斤，整体维持低位震荡、价格重心小幅抬升的修复走势。自6月25日创下年内低点至今，申万生猪养殖板块已累计反弹超16%，其中神农集团涨超28%，牧原股份涨超22%。

On live pig price, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on August 24 showed that the national price of live pigs (three-way crossbred) was 11.000 RMB/kg in mid-August 2026, up 5.8% month-on-month. On August 24, the national average price of three-way crossbred pigs was reported at 11.170 RMB/kg, maintaining the overall fluctuated trend of low shock and slight increase in the price center of gravity. Since hitting this year’s low on June 25, Shenwan live pig breeding sector has rebounded by more than 16% in total, of which Shennong Group jumped over 28% and Muyuan Foods jumped over 22%.

供应端方面，前期能繁母猪存栏量持续去化的传导效应正逐步在商品猪出栏端显现。截至2026年二季度末，全国能繁母猪存栏量已降至3780万头，同比减少6.5%，较2025年末减少181万头，距离3750万头的国家合理保有量目标仅一步之遥。去化已进入最后30万头的冲刺阶段。与此同时，行业已连续三个季度处于深度亏损状态，养殖端普遍放弃压栏增重选择降重出栏，有效缓解了短期供给压力。

On the supply side, the transmission effect from the earlier continuous de-capacity of breeding sow inventory is gradually emerging at the slaughter end of commercial pigs.By the end of Q2 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows had fallen to 37.8 million head, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% and a reduction of 1.81 million head compared with the end of 2025. The figure is just a short distance from the national reasonable inventory target of 37.5 million head, marking the final sprint phase for cutting the remaining 300,000 head. Meanwhile, the industry has been stuck in deep losses for three consecutive quarters. The breeding side generally gave up weight gain and chose to reduce weight and slaughter, effectively easing short-term supply pressure.

方正证券认为，从周期角度看，（生猪）产能去化有望进一步加速，拐点仍需等待。养殖端自繁自养亏损幅度明显扩大，行业现金流持续承压，能繁母猪产能去化稳步推进。股价角度，悲观预期已较充分，板块具备安全边际。养殖板块经历前期调整，当前估值处于历史低位。

Founder Securities commented that from a cyclical perspective, the de-capacity of live pigs is expected to further accelerate, and the inflection point still needs to wait. At the end of breeding, the loss of self-breeding and self-breeding increased significantly, industry cash flow remains under sustained pressure, and the de-capacity of breeding sows was steadily promoted. From the perspective of stock price, the pessimistic expectation is sufficient, and the sector has a margin of safety. After prior corrections, the breeding sector’s valuations are currently at historic lows.

东方证券看好生猪养殖板块，认为市场深亏5个月以上，去产能情况越发明朗，中长期价格景气持续性可观。（由铮）

Orient Securities is optimistic about live pigs breeding sector. It notes that after more than five months of deep industry losses, de-capacity has become increasingly clear, and the medium-to-long-term price upswing is set to sustain.(by Zheng)