前三季度经济运行总体平稳稳中有进（权威发布）

The economic operation in the first three quarters was generally stable and progressed (authoritative release)

10月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家统计局副局长盛来运介绍了前三季度我国经济运行情况。初步核算，前三季度国内生产总值949746亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.8%；9月份，多数生产需求指标好转，市场预期改善，推动经济回升向好的积极因素累积增多。

On October 18, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced the economic operation of China in the first three quarters. According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first three quarters was 94,974.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year at constant prices. In September, most production demand indicators improved, market expectations improved, and positive factors that promoted the economic recovery to a positive increase.

9月份主要经济指标出现积极变化

There were positive changes in major economic indicators in September.

“前三季度，国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进。”盛来运从三方面分析了前三季度经济运行的突出特点。

In the first three quarters, the national economy was generally stable and progressed steadily. Sheng Laiyun analyzed the outstanding characteristics of economic operation in the first three quarters from three aspects.

——从累计看，经济运行“稳”的总基调没有改变。

From the cumulative perspective, the general tone of "stable" economic operation has not changed.

增速方面，今年一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.3%，二季度增长4.7%，三季度增长4.6%。这些指标波动幅度并不大，而且在“5%左右”的预期目标附近。

In terms of growth rate, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, 4.7% in the second quarter and 4.6% in the third quarter. These indicators do not fluctuate much and are near the expected target of "around 5%."

就业物价总体平稳。就业方面，前三季度，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.1%，与上半年持平。物价方面，前三季度居民消费价格指数平均上涨0.3%，涨幅比上半年扩大0.2个百分点。此外，国际收支基本平衡。

Employment prices are generally stable. In terms of employment, in the first three quarters, the average unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.1%, which was the same as in the first half of the year. In terms of prices, the consumer price index rose by 0.3% on average in the first three quarters, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first half of the year. In addition, the balance of payments is basically balanced.

“从增长、就业、通胀、国际收支四大宏观指标判断，前三季度经济运行总体平稳，稳定运行的总基调没有变。”盛来运说。

Judging from the four macro indicators of growth, employment, inflation and balance of payments, the economic operation in the first three quarters was generally stable, and the general tone of stable operation has not changed. Sheng Laiyun said.

——经济结构优化、质量提升，高质量发展稳中有进的大趋势没有变。

The general trend of economic structure optimization, quality improvement, and high-quality development has not changed.

创新发展方面，前三季度，高技术产业投资同比增长10.0%；规模以上高技术制造业增加值增长9.1%，比规模以上工业平均增速高3.3个百分点。协调发展方面，产业结构、需求结构、区域结构持续优化。绿色发展方面，风电、核电、光伏发电等生产和消费保持较快增长。开放发展方面，在国际形势复杂多变的情况下，前三季度，工业出口交货值增长4.1%，全口径货物出口增长6.2%。共享发展方面，前三季度居民收入增速略高于GDP增速，民生保障有力有效，粮食安全、能源保供取得新成效。

In terms of innovation and development, in the first three quarters, investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.0% year-on-year; the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above the scale increased by 9.1%, 3.3 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industries above the scale. In terms of coordinated development, the industrial structure, demand structure and regional structure are continuously optimized. In terms of green development, wind power, nuclear power, photovoltaic power and other production and consumption have maintained rapid growth. In terms of open development, under the complex and changing international situation, in the first three quarters, the delivery value of industrial exports increased by 4.1%, and the export value of full-caliber goods increased by 6.2%. In terms of shared development, the growth rate of residents' income in the first three quarters was slightly higher than the growth rate of GDP, people's livelihood security was strong and effective, and new results were achieved in food security and energy supply.

——9月份国民经济出现积极变化，多数指标边际改善，经济运行呈现出筑底企稳的态势。

—In September, there was a positive change in the national economy, and most of the indicators

一揽子增量政策加快推出，极大增强了市场信心、改善了经营预期。一方面，工业生产、服务业生产均呈现边际改善。9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.4%，工业增速下滑4个月后首次止跌回升；服务业生产指数增长5.1%，比8月份提升0.5个百分点。另一方面，消费、投资出现积极变化。消费潜力持续释放。9月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.2%，比8月份提升1.1个百分点。1至9月份，固定资产投资同比增长3.4%，与1至8月份持平，投资增速在连续多月下滑后首次止跌回稳。

The package of incremental policies has been accelerated, which has greatly enhanced market confidence and improved business expectations. On the one hand, both industrial production and service industry production have shown marginal improvement. In September, the added value of above-scale industries increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the industrial growth rate stopped falling and rebounded for the first time after four months of decline; the production index of the service industry increased by 5.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from August. On the other hand, there have been positive changes in consumption and investment. The consumption potential continues to be released. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2% year-on-year, compared with increased by 1.1 percentage points in August. From January to September, fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year-on-year, the same as from January to August. The investment growth rate stopped falling and stabilized for the first time after several consecutive months of decline.

存量政策和增量政策正在发挥积极作用

Stock policy and incremental policy are playing a positive role.

今年以来，推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新、调整优化房地产市场、发行使用好超长期特别国债和地方政府专项债等一系列政策相继出台。盛来运用“五个有效”概括了政策效果。

Since this year, a series of policies have been introduced successively, such as promoting large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, adjusting and optimizing the real estate market, and issuing and using overdue special government bonds and local government special bonds. Shenglai used the "five effective" to summarize the policy effect.

有效释放了内需潜力。在消费品以旧换新政策的作用下，前三季度，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类零售额同比增长4.4%，其中9月份涉及以旧换新政策的汽车、家电、办公用品、家居等产品的零售表现更为明显。9月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类商品零售额分别增长20.5%、12.3%、10.0%；汽车类、家具类商品零售额均增长0.4%，增速由负转正。

Effectively release the potential of domestic demand.Under the influence of the trade-in policy for consumer goods, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment above the limit increased by 4.4% year-on-year, among which the retail performance of automobiles, household appliances, office supplies, home furnishings and other products involving the trade-in policy in September was more obvious. In September, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment and cultural office supplies increased by 20.5%, 12.3% and 10.0% respectively; the retail sales of automobile and furniture goods increased by 0.4%, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive.

有效促进了相关产业和产品的生产。受大规模设备更新政策带动，前三季度，船舶及相关装置制造、广播电视设备制造、通信设备制造增加值分别同比增长20.5%、19.8%、12.9%；食品制造机械、农产品加工专用设备、包装专用设备产品产量分别增长38.1%、34.6%、11.8%；新能源汽车产量增长33.8%，相关充电桩产量增长57.2%，家用电冰箱、空调、智能电视等产品也实现较快增长。

It has effectively promoted the production of relevant industries and products. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, in the first three quarters, the added value of ship and related equipment manufacturing, radio and television equipment manufacturing and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 20.5%, 19.8% and 12.9% year-on-year respectively; the output of food manufacturing machinery, agricultural product processing special equipment and packaging special equipment increased respectively. 38.1%, 34.6%, 11.8%; the production of new energy vehicles increased 33.8%, the output of related charging piles increased by 57.2%, and household refrigerators, air conditioners, smart TVs and other products also achieved a rapid increase.

有效推动了经济企稳回升。工业、服务业、投资和零售等主要指标都有积极变化，9月份多项生产需求指标边际改善，经济呈现筑底企稳态势。

It has effectively promoted the economic stability and recovery. Major indicators such as industry, service industry, investment and retail have all changed positively. In September, the margin of many production demand indicators improved, and the economy showed a stable trend.

有效改善了市场预期。宏观政策持续加力，有效提振了市场信心。9月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.8%，比8月上升0.7个百分点，经济景气水平总体有所回升。国家统计局对10万家大型企业进行的经营调查显示，预期四季度经营状况乐观的规模以上工业企业占比环比提升1.3个百分点、同比提升0.9个百分点。

Effectively improved market expectations.Macro policies continue to strengthen, which has effectively boosted market confidence. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from August, and the economic level generally rebounded. According to the operation survey of 100,000 large enterprises conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of industrial enterprises above the scale with optimistic business conditions in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 1.3 percentage points month-on-month and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year.

有效提振了市场活跃度。例如，房地产销售面积、销售金额、投资等降幅均出现收窄。

It has effectively boosted the market activity. For example, the decline in real estate sales area, sales amount, investment, etc. has all narrowed.

“希望各地抓紧出台相应的细则，加力落实已经出台的各项政策措施，使这些政策能够释放出更大潜能，巩固经济企稳回升态势。”盛来运说。

"I hope that all localities will urgently introduce corresponding detailed rules and strengthen the implementation of various policies and measures that have been introduced, so that these policies can release greater potential and consolidate the trend of economic stability and recovery." Sheng Laiyun said.

实现“5%左右”预期目标的信心在增强

Confidence in achieving the expected target of "about 5%" is increasing.

如何看待四季度我国经济走势？“我们认为，推动经济企稳回升的有利条件在增加，实现‘5%左右’预期目标的信心在增强。”盛来运说。

How do you view China's economic trend in the fourth quarter? We believe that the favorable conditions for promoting economic stability and recovery are increasing, and the confidence in achieving the expected target of 'about 5%' is increasing. Sheng Laiyun said.

前三季度GDP增长4.8%，为实现全年目标打下了坚实基础。9月份经济运行积极变化增强了发展信心。“只要有信心了，企业就愿意去投资，消费者就愿意去消费，一些预期指标出现了积极变化。”盛来运说。

GDP growth in the first three quarters4.8%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target. The positive changes in economic operation in September have enhanced confidence in development. As long as they have confidence, enterprises are willing to invest, consumers are willing to consume, and some expected indicators have changed positively. Sheng Laiyun said.

政策合力将增强经济回升动力。“无论是对投资、消费还是对产业发展，政策都会产生积极效应。已出台政策的含金量非常高，而且还有很大空间。”盛来运表示，总量政策、产业政策和结构性改革政策会相互配合、产生合力。

Policy synergy will enhance the momentum of economic recovery. Whether it is investment, consumption or industrial development, policies will have a positive effect. The gold content of the policies that have been introduced is very high, and there is still a lot of room. Sheng Laiyun said that the total policy, industrial policy and structural reform policy will cooperate with each other and produce synergy.

一些先行指标显示出经济企稳回升的态势和积极变化。与9月下旬相比，10月上旬重点监测的50种重要生产资料价格中，有33种上涨、3种持平，价格回升有利于企业经营状况的改善。一些生产资料价格变化、10月上旬用电量、十一假期消费等情况，都预示着四季度经济企稳回升是个大概率事件。

Some leading indicators show the trend of economic stability and recovery and positive changes. Compared with the end of September, among the 50 important production materials prices monitored in early October, 33 have risen and 3 have remained flat. The price rebound is conducive to the improvement of the business situation of enterprises. Some changes in the price of means of production, electricity consumption in early October, consumption during the National Day holiday, etc., all indicate that the economic stability and recovery in the fourth quarter is a likely event.

“综合判断，四季度经济会延续9月份已经出现的企稳回升态势。我们对完成全年目标充满信心。”盛来运说。

"Comprehensive judgment, the fourth quarter of the economy will continue to stabilize and rebound in September." We are confident that we will meet our targets for the full year." Sheng Laiyun said.