Why maintaining good China-U.S. economic ties is shared expectation?
为什么要保持良好的中美关系。经济联系是共同的期望？
Visitors look at the RISE technology demonstrator program model at the exhibition area of General Electric during the seventh China International Import Expo (CIIE) in east China's Shanghai, Nov. 5, 2024. (Xinhua/Fang Zhe)
2024年11月5日，第七届中国国际进口博览会(CIIE)期间，参观者在通用电气展区观看RISE技术演示器项目模型。（新华社/方喆）
BEIJING, Jan. 6 (Xinhua) -- Many economists, multinationals and ordinary consumers may share a common New Year's wish for 2025: stable and positive interactions between the world's two largest economies.
中新网1月6日电许多经济学家、跨国公司和普通消费者可能对2025年有一个共同的新年愿望：世界最大的两个经济体之间稳定而积极的互动。
In 2024, China and the United States celebrated the 45th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties. In 2025 and the years ahead, the bilateral relationship will continue to attract the global spotlight following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election.
2024年，中美迎来建交45周年。2025年及未来几年，美国总统大选结束后，双边关系将继续吸引全球关注。
While projections on future China-U.S. ties vary, both worry and optimism underscore one reality: the two countries' engagement matters to all.
而对未来中美关系的预测。关系各不相同，担忧和乐观都强调了一个现实：两国的接触对所有人都很重要。
"History has proven that China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation," Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng said at an event in early December.
“历史证明，中美合则两利，斗则俱伤，”中国驻美国大使谢锋在12月初的一次活动中表示。
"At this new crossroads, we cannot backpedal or take one step forward but then two backward," Xie said. "Mutual benefit is the most beautiful vocabulary in China's dictionary, and win-win cooperation is the best choice for our two countries."
谢说：“在这个新的十字路口，我们不能退缩，也不能向前一步又后退两步。”“互利共赢是中国字典里最美的词汇，合作共赢是我们两国最好的选择。”
INTERTWINED INTERESTS
利益交织
Over the past decades, the economic interests of China and the United States have become deeply intertwined. During the 1979-2023 period, trade between the two countries surged by over 200-fold, with the total volume of two-way investment surpassing 260 billion U.S. dollars.
几十年来，中美两国的经济利益已经深度交织。1979年至2023年期间，两国贸易增长200多倍，双向投资总额超过2600亿美元。
According to an April report by the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC), China was the United States' third-largest goods export market in 2023 and the sixth-largest services export market in 2022. In 2022, exports to China supported over 930,000 jobs in the United States.
根据美中贸易全国委员会（USCBC）4月份的报告，2023年中国是美国第三大货物出口市场，2022年是第六大服务出口市场。2022年，对中国的出口支持了美国超过93万个就业岗位。
China has been a land of opportunity for U.S. firms. More than 70,000 American companies have established businesses in the country. Notably, American companies comprised the largest foreign exhibitors contingent at the inaugural and second China International Supply Chain Expo. Among Apple's 200 key suppliers, 80 percent of them produce their products in China.
对于美国公司来说，中国一直是一片充满机遇的土地。超过70,000家美国公司在该国建立了业务。值得注意的是，在首届和第二届中国国际供应链博览会上，美国公司是最大的外国参展商。在苹果的200家主要供应商中，80%的供应商在中国生产产品。
On the other hand, Chinese firms' investment in the United States has boosted local employment. Chinese member companies of the China General Chamber of Commerce-USA have invested over 144 billion U.S. dollars in the United States, directly creating more than 230,000 jobs.
另一方面，中国企业在美国的投资促进了当地就业。美国中国总商会中国会员企业在美投资超过1440亿美元，直接创造超过23万个就业岗位。
Despite challenges and strains in their bilateral relationship, trade value between the two countries reached 4.44 trillion yuan (about 617.73 billion U.S. dollars) in the first 11 months of 2024, up 4.2 percent year on year.
尽管双边关系面临挑战和紧张，但2024年前11个月两国贸易额仍达到4.44万亿元人民币（约合6177.3亿美元），同比增长4.2%。
"It is important for us to remind U.S. lawmakers and those in influential positions that every state and congressional district in the United States maintains its own economic and trade relationship with China, and changes in U.S.-China trade policy should be considered very carefully," former USCBC President Craig Allen said.
“重要的是，我们要提醒美国议员和那些处于有影响力地位的人，美国的每个州和国会选区都与中国保持着自己的经贸关系，美中贸易政策的变化应该非常仔细地考虑，”USCBC前总裁克雷格·艾伦说。
CONFRONTATION MAKES NO WINNER
对抗没有赢家
Given the strong interconnectedness between the two economies, raising tariffs on Chinese products and other trade and investment restrictive measures against China will surely backfire, fueling inflation and hindering innovation, among others, history and research have shown.
历史和研究表明，鉴于两国经济之间的紧密联系，提高对中国产品的关税以及其他针对中国的贸易和投资限制措施肯定会适得其反，加剧通胀并阻碍创新等。
A joint U.S. study released in 2023 assessed the impact of the Section 301 tariffs imposed on U.S. imports of apparel, footwear, travel goods and furniture from China since 2018. For footwear alone, the tariffs imposed an annual direct cost on importers of at least 250 million U.S. dollars, which escalated each year to exceed 450 million dollars in 2022.
美国2023年发布的一项联合研究评估了自2018年以来对美国从中国进口的服装、鞋类、旅行用品和家具征收的301关税的影响。仅就鞋类而言，关税每年给进口商造成至少2.5亿美元的直接成本，这一成本每年都在上升，到2022年将超过4.5亿美元。
The study found that the higher costs and higher prices brought by such tariffs eventually fell on American companies and families.
研究发现，此类关税带来的更高成本和更高价格最终落在了美国企业和家庭身上。
Meanwhile, the Section 301 tariffs increased the price of semiconductors in the United States by 4.1 percent from 2018 to 2021, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.
与此同时，根据美国国际贸易委员会的数据，301条款关税使美国半导体价格从2018年到2021年上涨了4.1%。
Defaults on U.S. credit card loans have hit the highest level since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, indicating the financial distress facing lower-income consumers after years of elevated inflation, according to a Financial Times report. The situation could worsen if more tariffs are introduced, which will further fuel inflation.
据英国《金融时报》报道，美国信用卡贷款违约率已达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平，表明低收入消费者在多年通胀上升后面临财务困境。如果征收更多关税，情况可能会恶化，这将进一步加剧通胀。
Moves to isolate Chinese firms also come with potential costs, according to U.S. think tank the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), citing hobbling innovation for the United States and allied business and encouraging circumvention of sanctions.
美国智库彼得森国际经济研究所（PIIE）表示，孤立中国企业的举措也会带来潜在成本，理由是这阻碍了美国及其盟国企业的创新，并鼓励规避制裁。
"American firms earn revenue through sales to Chinese customers. Export controls reduce these earnings if U.S. firms are not able to find alternative buyers. Such costs should not be viewed as only a private loss for companies, however: Sales revenue is the most important source of funding for research and development by U.S. technology companies," the PIIE noted.
“美国公司通过向中国客户销售获得收入。如果美国公司无法找到替代买家，出口管制会减少这些收入。然而，这种成本不应被视为公司的私人损失：销售收入是美国科技公司最重要的研发资金来源，”PIIE指出。
"Reducing certain tariffs, enhancing technological and investment cooperation, and strengthening economic ties could pave the way for a more stable trade relationship and foster long-term economic growth for both countries," said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization.
中国与全球化中心主任王辉耀表示：“降低某些关税、加强技术和投资合作以及加强经济联系可以为更稳定的贸易关系铺平道路，并促进两国的长期经济增长。”
FOR THE WORLD'S SAKE
为了这个世界
Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University known for his concept of the "Thucydides Trap," said on his visit to China in December that the United States and China should avoid falling into the trap and finding the right way for them to get along with each other is important for both countries and the world at large.
以提出“修昔底德陷阱”概念而闻名的哈佛大学教授格雷厄姆·艾利森12月访华时表示，美中两国应避免落入陷阱，找到彼此相处的正确方式对两国和整个世界都很重要。
Together, China and the United States account for over one-third of the world's total economic output, with their combined trade volume representing about one-fifth of the global total. "Any decoupling between us would only make the world poorer," said Xie Feng.
中美经济总量占世界三分之一以上，贸易额占全球五分之一左右。“我们之间的任何脱钩只会让世界变得更穷，”谢锋说。
When meeting Chinese leaders in early December, heads of major global economic organizations expressed widespread concern over the potential damage to global economic development caused by decoupling practices. They called for the facilitation of trade and investment liberalization.
全球主要经济组织负责人在12月初会见中国领导人时，对脱钩做法对全球经济发展的潜在损害表达了广泛担忧。他们呼吁促进贸易和投资自由化。
In December, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that higher uncertainty and continued increases in trade-restrictive measures could "raise costs and prices, deter investment, weaken innovation and ultimately lower growth."
去年12月，经济合作与发展组织警告称，不确定性增加和贸易限制措施持续增加可能“提高成本和价格、阻碍投资、削弱创新并最终降低增长”。
"The 2025 trade outlook is clouded by potential U.S. policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and impact key trading partners," the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its latest Global Trade Update.
联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)在最新的全球贸易更新中表示：“美国潜在的政策转变给2025年的贸易前景蒙上了阴影，包括可能扰乱全球价值链并影响主要贸易伙伴的更广泛关税。”
Such measures risk triggering retaliation and ripple effects, affecting industries and economies along entire supply chains, UNCTAD said. "Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, weakening trade, investment and economic growth."
贸发会议表示，此类措施有可能引发报复和连锁反应，影响整个供应链上的行业和经济。“即使仅仅是关税威胁也会造成不可预测性，削弱贸易、投资和经济增长。”
