二手车市场有望加速回暖

The used car market is expected to accelerate recovery

《中共中央 国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》发布后不久，国务院又印发了《扎实稳住经济的一揽子政策措施》（以下简称《措施》），再次提出全面取消二手车限迁，以及完善二手车市场主体登记注册、备案和车辆交易登记管理规定。

Shortly after the issuance of the Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Market, the State Council issued a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy (hereinafter referred to as "Measures"), proposing once again to completely cancel the restrictions on the relocation of second-hand cars and improve the regulations on the registration, filing and registration of vehicle transactions of second-hand car market entities.

这为低迷的二手车市场注入暖流。中国汽车流通协会表示，随着相关利好政策的落地，预计6月份置换量将明显提升。同时，二手车源、流通成本及流通效率将得到改善，二手车价格会更亲民，拉动市场需求增长，有利于二手车车商的库存得以尽快消化。

This has warmed up the sluggish used-car market. China Automobile Circulation Association said that with the landing of relevant favorable policies, it is expected that the volume of replacement in June will be significantly improved. At the same time, the source of second-hand cars, circulation cost and circulation efficiency will be improved, the price of second-hand cars will be more close to the people, driving the growth of market demand, which is conducive to the inventory of second-hand car dealers to be digested as soon as possible.

市场处于不景气区间

The market is in a depressed range

4月份，二手车市场罕见地出现了交易量和交易价格同比双下跌，全国二手车市场交易量110.06万辆，环比下降16.51%，月度同比下降26.10%。同时，二手车交易均价持续走低，自去年12月份全国二手车均价达到峰值7.18万元后，今年4月份降至6.83万元。

In April, the second-hand car market rarely appeared a year-on-year double decline in trading volume and trading price. The trading volume of the national second-hand car market was 1.1006 million vehicles, down 16.51% month-on-month and 26.10% year-on-year. At the same time, the average price of second-hand car trading continued to fall, falling to 68,300 yuan in April after reaching a peak of 71,800 yuan in December last year.

中国汽车流通协会副秘书长罗磊认为，疫情散发、市场需求收缩、预期转弱以及油价上涨造成的购买力下降，都是造成二手车市场不景气的原因。

Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, believes that the spread of the epidemic, shrinking market demand, weakening expectations and rising oil prices caused by the decline in purchasing power, are all the reasons for the downturn in the used car market.

5月份，从日均交易规模来看总体略好于4月份，但与去年同期相比依然存在差距。流通协会信息部发布的二手车周度快报显示，5月第四周日均交易量5.39万辆，比上周增长5.48%，同比下降10.75%。预计5月份二手车市场总体交易规模在113万辆至115万辆，环比增长3%，同比下降21%。

May, from the average daily trading scale overall slightly better than April, but compared with the same period last year there is still a gap. Circulation association information department released second-hand car weekly express show, May fourth week average daily trading volume 53,900 vehicles, Compared with last week growth 5.48%, Year-on-year decline 10.75%. It is estimated that the overall transaction scale of the second-hand car market in May will be 1.13 million to 1.15 million, with a month-on-month growth of 3% and a year-on-year decline of 21%.

流通协会发布最新一期结果也显示，5月份“中国二手车经理人指数”（UCMI）为37.7%，处于荣枯线以下，二手车市场仍处在不景气区间。

The latest results released by the Circulation Association also show that the "China Used Car Managers Index"(UCMI) in May was 37.7%, below the boom-and-bust line, and the used car market is still in the recession range.

据中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红介绍，有一半的二手车经理人反馈5月份市场需求减少。二手车线上的集客没有明显变化，线下的集客量有一定减少。造成这种情况的原因，一方面是疫情防控要求减少外出，另一方面是市场上交易的二手车仍以燃油车为主，而持续的油价上涨使一些消费者望而却步。

According to Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, half of used car managers reported a decrease in market demand in May. There is no significant change in the online collection of second-hand cars, while the offline collection has decreased to a certain extent. The reason for this is that the epidemic prevention and control requires less travel, and the used cars on the market are still mainly fuel cars, and the continuous rise in oil prices has deterred some consumers.

总体来看，5月份的二手车市场表现不好，消费者进店率降低仍是影响二手车销量的主要原因，同时受“五一”新车价格优惠及地方政府购车补贴的支持，原意愿购买二手车的消费者转购新车，饱和状态下的库存量得不到释放导致库存周转时间延长，车商难以收拢占用的资金，经营风险增加。

Overall, in May of second-hand car market performance is not good, consumers into the store rate is still the main reason affecting the used-car sales, at the same time by "51" new car price is favorable and the support of local government subsidies, the original intend to buy a used car consumers turn to buy a new car, under the saturation state of inventory is not release lead to inventory turnover time prolonged, It is difficult for car dealers to collect the funds occupied, and the management risk increases.

二手车行业整体不景气，在车商层面，就是存活艰难。多位车商告诉记者，现在二手车生意经营压力非常大，有车不敢收、库存不好卖。

Second-hand car industry overall recession, in the car business level, is difficult to survive. A number of car dealers told reporters, now used car business pressure is very big, there are cars dare not collect, inventory is not good to sell.

打通堵点促进流通

Open up blocking points and promote circulation

尽管近两个月来，二手车行业陷入困境。但回顾近十年，除2020年受到疫情影响小幅下滑外，二手车的交易量连续多年呈现正增长，且增速远高于新车。2021年，二手车交易量为1758.51万辆，同比增速达22.7%，是近十年来最高。我国新旧车销量比已达到1.49∶1，正快速追赶成熟国家新旧车销量比。

Despite the recent two months, the used car industry has been in trouble. However, looking back over the past decade, except for a small decline affected by the epidemic in 2020, the trading volume of used cars has shown positive growth for many consecutive years, and the growth rate is much higher than that of new cars. In 2021, the trading volume of used cars was 17.5851 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.7%, the highest in nearly a decade. The sales ratio of old and new cars in China has reached 1.49: 1, which is rapidly catching up with the sales ratio of old and new cars in mature countries.

然而，在持续高增长的背后，二手车行业多年来形成的堵点依然存在。比如，大量二手车会从一线城市向二线至六线城市乃至县域地区输出，但限迁政策却阻碍了二手车的异地流通，各地方对转入二手车进行排放标准限制、车龄限制，导致外地消费者想买车买不了，本地车主想卖车却卖不出好价钱。

However, behind the continued high growth, the used car industry over the years to form a blocking point still exists. From first-tier cities, for example, a large number of second-hand car will to second-line to six cities and county region output, but limited migration policy hindered the long-distance circulation of used cars, various places to discharge standard limit to second-hand car, car age limit, lead to foreign consumers want to buy a car to buy, local owners want to sell cars but can not sell a good price.

二手车行业还面临商品属性得不到确立，一些地区对二手车企业经营场所进行限制，汽车经销企业增设二手车业务审批手续繁琐等问题。

The second-hand car industry also faces such problems as the failure to establish the commodity attribute, the restriction on the business premises of second-hand car enterprises in some regions, and the cumbersome examination and approval procedures for the addition of second-hand car business by automobile distribution enterprises.

二手车流通领域的诸多堵点，成为阻碍汽车消费潜力全面释放的痛点。也正因如此，在《措施》发布后，中国汽车流通协会副秘书长王都兴奋地说：“协会为打破限迁努力了10多年，取消限迁对二手车市场的整体带动作用不可估量，是行业重拾信心的重大利好。”他认为，政策强调促进二手车商品化、规模化流通，将极大简化二手车登记手续，彻底打通二手车流通堵点。

Many blocking points in the field of second-hand car circulation have become pain points hindering the full release of automobile consumption potential. For this reason, after the release of the measures, Wang Du, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said excitedly, "The association has worked hard for more than 10 years to break the relocation restrictions. The lifting of the relocation restrictions has played an inestimable role in driving the second-hand car market as a whole, which is a major positive for the industry to regain confidence." He believes that the policy emphasis on promoting the commercialization and large-scale circulation of second-hand cars will greatly simplify the registration procedures of second-hand cars and completely open up the blocked points of second-hand car circulation.

据流通协会统计，全国国五排放标准汽车保有量超过6000万辆，占现有保有量的20%以上。二手车流通阻碍陆续破冰，极大地提升了行业内企业的预期和信心。

According to the statistics of the Circulation Association, there are more than 60 million vehicles with national fifth emission standard in China, accounting for more than 20% of the existing parc. The circulation of second-hand cars hinders the sixth consecutive ice-breaking, greatly enhancing the expectations and confidence of enterprises in the industry.

“二手车行业车源属性强，一二线城市作为优质车源聚集地，此前受制于限迁政策，优质车源向低线流通受阻，这抑制了购车需求释放。”瓜子二手车联合创始人、高级副总裁王晓宇向记者表示，二手车流通区域限制的打破，将让低线城市消费者能够购买到高线城市的优质车源，充分释放了汽车消费潜力，带动汽车消费升级。同时，一二线城市二手车的顺利售出，释放了购买新车、二手车的消费需求，带动汽车制造、新车销售等汽车消费服务需求的稳定增长，盘活整个国内汽车消费市场。

"The used car industry has a strong vehicle source attribute. First-tier and second-tier cities, as the gathering places of high-quality vehicles, were previously subject to the migration restriction policy, and the flow of high-quality vehicles to the low line was blocked, which inhibited the release of car purchase demand." Guazi used car co-founder and senior vice President Wang Xiaoyu told reporters that the break of restrictions on the circulation of used cars will allow consumers in low-line cities to buy high-quality cars in high-line cities, fully releasing the potential of automobile consumption and driving the upgrading of automobile consumption. At the same time, the smooth sale of second-hand cars in first-tier and second-tier cities has released the consumer demand for new cars and second-hand cars, driven the steady growth of the demand for automobile consumption services such as automobile manufacturing and new car sales, and revitalized the entire domestic automobile consumption market.

措施落地助推回暖

Measures landing to boost warming up

在稳定经济运行的一揽子措施及配套政策陆续发布后，各地积极行动。6月初，河北省发出通知，提出要“全面取消符合国五排放标准小型非营运二手车迁入限制，完善二手车市场主体的登记注册、备案和车辆交易登记管理规定”。四川省也发出通知，提出要“在全省范围取消对符合国五排放标准小型非营运二手车的迁入限制”。

After the package of measures and supporting policies to stabilize economic operation were issued for six consecutive years, all localities took positive action. At the beginning of June Hebei Province issued a notice, proposing to "completely cancel the immigration restrictions on small non-operating second-hand cars conforming to the national fifth emission standard, and improve the regulations on registration, filing and vehicle transaction registration of second-hand car market entities." Sichuan Province has also issued a notice calling for "the removal of immigration restrictions on small, non-operating second-hand cars that meet the national five-year emission standards throughout the province."

流通协会调研了解到，长三角、珠三角也即将放开国五限迁，天津市与河北省已经落地执行。

Circulation association research understands, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta is also about to open the country five restrictions move Tianjin City and Hebei Province have been implemented.

“今年下半年将是全国范围内破除限迁最好的时机。如果国五二手车实现全国流通，国五车保值率会有望提升5%。”广东骏威龙汽车贸易有限公司董事长潘国光分析说。

"The second half of this year will be the best time to break the restriction on relocation nationwide. If the second-hand vehicles of the National Fifth Automobile are circulated nationwide, the hedging rate of the National Fifth Automobile is expected to increase by 5%." Guangdong Jun Weilong Automobile Trading Co., Ltd. Chairman Pan Guoguang analysis said.

《措施》对二手车商品属性的明确，也大大简化了二手车经营和交易的流程。以瓜子二手车为例，随着限迁政策取消，平台异地交付平均时间相比此前缩短了8天，最快可在24小时内完成异地交付。

The definition of second-hand car commodity attributes in the Measures also greatly simplifies the process of second-hand car operation and trading. Taking Guazi used car as an example, with the removal of the relocation policy, the average delivery time of the platform has been shortened by 8 days, and the fastest delivery can be completed within 24 hours.

王晓宇认为，二手车行业有望在下半年加速回暖，消费需求将在9月份至12月份的传统销售旺季迎来集中释放。

Wang Xiaoyu believes that the second-hand car industry is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, consumer demand will be in September to December of the traditional sales peak season ushered in concentrated release.

“预计，2022年二手车交易量有望跃上2000万辆关口。到2025年，新旧车交易比例或将达到1∶1。”郎学红此前在《2021—2022中国汽车流通行业蓝皮书》的发布会上，代表协会发布了行业预测。

"It is expected that the trading volume of used cars will jump to 20 million in 2022." By 2025, the ratio of new and used cars will reach 1: 1. " Lang Xuehong previously released the industry forecast on behalf of the Association at the press conference of the " 2021-2022 Blue Book of China's Automobile Circulation Industry."

虽然政策刺激下未来可期，但目前二手车商库存压力仍然较大，资金回笼速度较慢。流通协会调查显示，5月份二手车经销商整体库存周期为47天。业内人士建议，车商仍应保持谨慎经营策略。6月份会有部分在前期被延迟的消费需求转化，以及全国防疫形势的不断向好，预计多地交易会有一波反弹，但依然建议二手车经销商合理控制库存水平和库存周期，尽快回笼资金。

Although the future can be expected under the policy stimulus, the current inventory pressure of used car dealers is still large, and the speed of capital withdrawal is slow. Circulation association survey shows, May used car dealers overall inventory cycle for 47 days. Industry insiders suggest that car dealers should still maintain a cautious business strategy. In June, there will be some delayed consumption demand transformation in the early stage, as well as the national epidemic prevention situation continues to improve, it is expected that there will be a wave of rebound in many trade fairs, but it is still suggested that used car dealers reasonably control inventory level and inventory cycle, and withdraw funds as soon as possible.