欧洲“断气”对中国化工业意味着什么？
What does Europe's "expiration" mean for Chinese industries?
俄罗斯“北溪-1”无限期关闭正在全球市场掀起滔天巨浪。
The indefinite closure of Russia's Beixi-1 is setting off huge waves in the global market.
欧洲作为全球第二大化工品生产基地，此次所引发的欧洲天然气供应危机或将影响欧洲相关化工品供应，其中主要涉及到下图产品：
As the world's second largest chemical production base, Europe's natural gas supply crisis may affect the supply of related chemicals in Europe, mainly involving the following products:
一旦上述化工品出现断供，新一轮涨价潮或势在必行。分析师认为，对于中国化工产业而言，这是一次全球地位进一步抬升的机会，量和质都有望体现。
Once the supply of the above chemicals is cut off, a new round of price rises may be imperative. Analysts believe that for China's chemical industry, this is an opportunity to further improve its global status, and both quantity and quality are expected to be reflected.
华创证券在最新的报告中指出，短期来看，中国和欧洲化工品的成本大幅度分化，给中国化工品带来了出口能源套利的机会；长期来看，欧洲产业转移有望发生，而中国凭借完善的产业集群和原材料保障，有望成为优选。
In its latest report, Huachuang Securities pointed out that in the short term, the costs of Chinese and European chemicals have been greatly differentiated, which has brought opportunities for Chinese chemicals to export energy arbitrage; In the long run, industrial transfer in Europe is expected to occur, while China is expected to become the preferred choice with its perfect industrial cluster and raw material guarantee.
华创证券分析师杨晖表示，如果把需求看做β，成本优势看做α的话，不要逆着β寻求α依然是原则。择时上需要配合需求和产品价格，产品价格见底，被动去库就是最佳时点。走过这一次衰退，有望看到曙光，白马之旅，见龙在田。
Yang Hui, an analyst at Huachuang securities, said that if the demand is regarded as β， Cost advantage can be seen as: α Don't go against it β seek α It is still a principle. When choosing the time, we need to match the demand and product price. When the product price has bottomed out, it is the best time to passively go to the library. After this recession, we are expected to see the dawn, the white horse journey, and the dragon in the field.
9月5日，受欧洲“断气”影响，A股化工板块走高，环氧丙烷、钛白粉概念股领涨，怡达股份、红宝丽涨停，坤彩科技逼近涨停，滨化股份、国城矿业、振华股份、攀钢钒钛等跟涨。
On September 5, affected by the "gas cut-off" in Europe, the A-share chemical industry sector rose, led by propylene oxide and titanium dioxide concept stocks, Yida shares and hongbaoli rose by the limit, kuncai technology approached the limit, and Binhua shares, Guocheng mining, Zhenhua shares, Panzhihua vanadium and Titanium Co., Ltd. rose.
短期、中期、长期分别来看，机会在哪里？
Where are the opportunities in the short, medium and long term?
1、短期看出口套利
1. Export arbitrage in the short term
华创证券指出，短期看出口套利，受到能源危机的影响，中国和欧洲化工品的成本大幅度分化，许多欧洲化工品的成本和售价都显著高于国内，这给中国化工品带来了出口能源套利的机会。
Huachuang Securities pointed out that due to the impact of the energy crisis, the cost of Chinese and European chemicals has been greatly differentiated in the short term, and the cost and price of many European chemicals are significantly higher than those in China, which has brought opportunities for Chinese chemicals to export energy arbitrage.
衰退预期和海外去库是主要制约因素，在诸多化工品中，我们当下时点选择推荐维生素行业，正是因为维生素的需求是跟随 CPI 上行的，而主流化工品需求大多是跟着 PPI 下行，或许在 23 年才能看到见底上行的机会。
Recession expectations and overseas destocking are the main constraints. Among many chemicals, we choose to recommend the vitamin industry at this time precisely because the demand for vitamins follows the upward trend of CPI, while the demand for mainstream chemicals mostly follows the downward trend of PPI. It may take 23 years to see the opportunity of bottoming out and upward.
2、中期关注“交易滞胀(农化)+稳经济+电价套利+产能转移”四大主线
2. In the medium term, pay attention to the four main lines of "transaction stagflation (agrochemical) + stable economy + electricity price arbitrage + capacity transfer"
从中期角度，华创证券推荐的四大线条依然不变，交易滞胀(农化)+稳经济+电价套利+产能转移。
From the medium-term perspective, the four lines recommended by Huachuang securities remain unchanged, namely, trading stagflation (agricultural chemicals) + stabilizing the economy + electricity price arbitrage + capacity transfer.
1)农化线条：化肥+农药+复合肥。疫情防控不会降低反而会提振粮食的需求(刚需+囤货)，刺激通胀上行。 考虑到近期乌克兰宣称春耕面积减少50%，我们对于全球的粮食供给依然保持担忧，进而持续推荐化肥的强周期上行。
1) Agrochemical line: chemical fertilizer + pesticide + compound fertilizer. Epidemic prevention and control will not reduce, but will boost the demand for grain (just demand + hoarding), and stimulate inflation. Considering that Ukraine recently announced that the spring ploughing area has been reduced by 50%, we remain worried about the global food supply, and continue to recommend chemical fertilizers in a strong cycle.
2)稳经济：坚持疫情清零政策不动摇，国内经济增速压力加大，因为疫情防控消失的需求可能会换来后续更加强劲的政策刺激，地产链条值得关注。
2) Stabilizing the economy: adhering to the zero epidemic policy is unshakable, and the pressure on domestic economic growth is increasing, because the demand for the elimination of epidemic prevention and control may be replaced by more powerful policy incentives in the future, and the real estate chain deserves attention.
3)电价套利：油气大幅度上涨，海外电价持续抬升至 2-3 元/度，相比之下，国内东部企业电价 6-8 毛/度，而西部地区仅仅 1-2 毛/度，关注单位产值高电耗产品的电价差套利机会。单位产值电耗从高到低排序的化工品为： 电石、黄磷、烧碱、工业硅、合成氨等。
3) Electricity price arbitrage: oil and gas have increased significantly, and overseas electricity prices have continued to rise to 2-3 yuan / kWh. In contrast, the electricity price of enterprises in the eastern part of China is 6-8 gross / kWh, while that of enterprises in the western part is only 1-2 gross / kWh. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities of electricity price difference of products with high power consumption per unit output value. The chemicals with high to low power consumption per unit output value are calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus, caustic soda, industrial silicon, synthetic ammonia, etc.
4)产能转移：预期欧洲能源危机带给中国产能转移的机会。若欧洲化工装置因为能源和原料出现减产或停产，中国有望凭借产业链优势实现产能转移。以 2020 年为元年起点。展望未来的 5-10 年， 我们需要做一个方向性的判断：资源端优势将会凸显并且放大。
4) Capacity transfer: it is expected that the European energy crisis will bring opportunities for China's capacity transfer. If the production of chemical plants in Europe is reduced or stopped due to energy and raw materials, China is expected to transfer production capacity by virtue of the advantages of the industrial chain. Take 2020 as the starting point of the first year. Looking forward to the next 5-10 years, we need to make a directional judgment: the advantages of the resource side will be highlighted and enlarged.
3、长期看产业转移
3. Look at industrial transfer in the long run
华创证券表示，长期看产业转移。从 BASF 的二季报可以看出，得益于低价能源库存+长协供应+政府补贴，成本上涨尚未完全体现，而明年或将完全体现在欧洲企业的成本中。
Huachuang Securities said that in the long run, we should look at industrial transfer. It can be seen from BASF's second quarter report that, thanks to low-cost energy inventory + long-term cooperative supply + government subsidies, the cost increase has not yet been fully reflected, and may be fully reflected in the costs of European enterprises next year.
2023 年的天然气价格也许不如当下恐慌高位，但中枢价格一定远胜过往。欧洲之所以能在化工行业占有重要一席之地，除了深厚的技术积累以外，很大一部分得益于俄罗斯的廉价能源。
The natural gas price in 2023 may not be as high as the current panic, but the central price must be far better than in the past. The reason why Europe can play an important role in the chemical industry is not only the profound technical accumulation, but also the cheap energy of Russia.
当欧洲和俄罗斯脱钩后，欧洲告别低能源，届时产业转移有望发生，而中国凭借完善的产业集群和原材料保障，有望成为优选。对于中国的化工产业是一次产业升级的绝佳机会。
When Europe and Russia are decoupled, Europe will bid farewell to low energy. At that time, industrial transfer is expected to occur, and China is expected to become the best choice with perfect industrial clusters and raw material guarantees. It is a great opportunity for China's chemical industry to upgrade.
此外，华创证券强调，2022 年的冬季，能源安全依然会是核心矛盾。新旧能源切换和地缘政治冲突带来的能源套利空间显著，依然看好今年能源价格，疆煤、美气、俄油，成为能源套利三大洼地。同时，华创证券更加侧重上游资源型和中游加工型，认为行业利润会更加偏向上游。
In addition, Huachuang securities stressed that in the winter of 2022, energy security will still be the core contradiction. The energy arbitrage space brought by the switching between new and old energy sources and geopolitical conflicts is significant. We are still optimistic about this year's energy prices. Xinjiang coal, American gas and Russian oil have become the three major depressions for energy arbitrage. At the same time, Huachuang securities focuses more on the upstream resource type and the midstream processing type, believing that the industry profits will be more upstream.
基础化工细分子行业赛道分析
Track analysis of basic chemical sub-industries
1、轮胎行业迎来长期主义者的布局良机
1. The tire industry welcomes the layout opportunity of long-term activists
华创证券认为，短期利空不改长期趋势：公司业绩将回暖，并迎来戴维斯双击。而拐点的出现，将有望为我们迎来年度级别的投资机会，盈利的修复将以国内竞争的底部、海外市场的超额利润和公司估值回归三重形式体现。
Huachuang Securities believes that short-term bad news will not change the long-term trend: the company's performance will recover and Davis will double-click. The emergence of the inflection point is expected to usher in annual investment opportunities for us, and the recovery of profits will be reflected in the triple form of the bottom of domestic competition, excess profits in overseas markets and the return of company valuation.
2、粮价近期呈震荡趋势，旺季将至看好行业景气持续
2. Food prices have been fluctuating recently, and the peak season will be optimistic about the continued prosperity of the industry
华创证券看好 PPI 向 CPI 切换下的农化行业投资机会：随着库存的下降和价格低位的影响，全球农作物价格以开启上涨周期，而为粮价维持高位将驱动化肥行业利润空间提升。
Huachuang securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities in the agrochemical industry under the switch from PPI to CPI: with the decline of inventories and the impact of low prices, global crop prices will start a rising cycle, and maintaining high grain prices will drive the profit margin of the fertilizer industry.
3、磷化工产业链需求向上传导，看好上半年磷酸铁供需错配格局
3. The demand of phosphorus chemical industry chain is transmitted upward, optimistic about the mismatch pattern between supply and demand of iron phosphate in the first half of the
华创证券认为：由于磷酸铁扩产周期比磷酸铁锂长，且磷酸铁锂厂家大多未向上游磷酸铁业务延伸布局， 从未来半年到一年时间看，磷酸铁扩产增量有限，预计仍将处于供给紧张的状态。
Huachuang Securities believes that since the production expansion cycle of iron phosphate is longer than that of lithium iron phosphate, and most of the manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate have not extended their layout to the upstream iron phosphate business, from the perspective of the next six months to a year, the increase in the production expansion of iron phosphate is limited, and it is expected that it will still be in a state of tight supply.
4、碳中和利好技术优势企业，关注西部地区煤炭套利优势
4. Carbon neutrality benefits enterprises with technological advantages and pays attention to the advantages of coal arbitrage in the western region
华创证券表示，完全摒弃煤化工而发展天然气及其他如生物质等清洁能源并不具备可行性，较为可行的方向是：通过对已有装置进行效率的提升、对现有企业进行产品结构的调整来实现减排和固碳，未来的行业发展趋势为现代煤化工对传统煤化工的替代。
Huachuang Securities said that it is not feasible to completely abandon coal chemical industry and develop natural gas and other clean energy such as biomass. The more feasible direction is to achieve emission reduction and carbon fixation by improving the efficiency of existing plants and adjusting the product structure of existing enterprises. The future industry development trend is to replace traditional coal chemical industry with modern coal chemical industry.
5、氯碱：上游受益碳中和，下游短期地产承压，长期光伏打开新增需求
5. Chlor-alkali: Upstream benefits from carbon neutralization, downstream short-term real estate is under pressure, and long-term photovoltaics open up new demand
碳中和背景下，氯碱行业扩张从源头受到抑制。而需求端房地产新开工已经恢复增长，未来 PVC 供需或持续偏紧。
Under the background of carbon neutrality, the expansion of chlor alkali industry was restrained from the source. On the demand side, the new construction of real estate has resumed growth, and the supply and demand of PVC may continue to be tight in the future.
6、钛白粉：供应有所收紧，市场淡季需求不佳
6. Titanium dioxide: The supply has been tightened and the market demand is not good in the off-season
钛白粉尚未达到供需平衡的状态，供应方面，伴随下游房地产行业运行低迷，钛白粉价格开始接连快速下降。需求方面：本周，钛白粉内需市场持续低迷，整体需求依旧未有明显改善。
Titanium dioxide has not reached the balance between supply and demand. On the supply side, with the downturn of the downstream real estate industry, the price of titanium dioxide began to drop rapidly one after another. In terms of demand: this week, the domestic demand market for titanium dioxide has remained sluggish, and the overall demand has not improved significantly.
7、聚氨酯：海外需求持续回暖，长期看好 MDI 的集中度提升
7. Polyurethane: Overseas demand continues to pick up, and the concentration of MDI is optimistic for a long time
华创证券长期看好 MDI 在碳中和背景下的需求提升，预计后续随着海外需求持续恢复和国内建筑装修需求的走高， MDI 或有新一轮景气上行。
Huachuang securities has long been optimistic about the improvement of MDI's demand under the background of carbon neutrality. It is expected that with the continuous recovery of overseas demand and the rise of domestic building decoration demand, MDI may have a new round of prosperity.
8、民营大炼化：原油价格震荡下跌，乙烯价差改善
8. Private refining and chemical industry: Crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, and ethylene price differences improved
本周全球经济状况不佳，原油价格震荡下跌，聚酯材料等新材料产业延伸打开未来成长空间。
This week, the global economic situation is not good, crude oil prices fluctuate and fall, and new materials industries such as polyester materials extend to open up room for future growth.
9、化纤：下游织造负荷持续回升，需求端或迎来有效改善
9. Chemical fiber: The downstream weaving load continues to rise, and the demand side may usher in effective improvement
限电放松下游开工提升，长丝库存持续下行。需求端，叠加传统旺季金九银十即将来临，江浙下游开机率有所回升，但整体需求仍显疲软态势，未来或迎来有效改善。
With the relaxation of power restrictions and the improvement of downstream operation, filament inventory continued to decline. On the demand side, with the traditional peak season of gold, nine silver and ten coming soon, the startup rate in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded, but the overall demand is still weak, and may be improved in the future.
10、维生素及蛋氨酸：欧洲能源危机或致供给收紧，有望迎来景气反转
10. Vitamins and methionine: The European energy crisis may tighten supply and is expected to usher in a reversal of prosperity
华创证券指出，欧洲能源危机，巴斯夫路德维希港基地(是全球主要的 VA、VE 生产基地之一)面临关停风险，莱茵河或再断航，或影响全球维生素供给，有望催化维生素价格反弹。
Huachuang Securities pointed out that due to the European energy crisis, BASF Ludwigshafen base (one of the world's major VA and ve production bases) faces the risk of shutdown, and the Rhine River may be cut off again, or affect the global vitamin supply, which is expected to catalyze the rebound of vitamin prices.
其他化工产品方面，C3&C4现在处于需求淡季，C3 产业链价差仍处低位；氟化工产业链，三氯乙烯价格调涨，萤石价格小幅上行；硅化工方面，金属硅价格继续回落，有机硅 DMC 累库；从改性塑料来看，BOPP 膜供应恢复，限电影响逐渐减弱。
In terms of other chemical products, C3 & C4 is now in the low demand season, and the price difference of C3 industrial chain is still at a low level; In the fluorine chemical industry chain, the price of trichloroethylene increased, and the price of fluorite rose slightly; In terms of silicon chemical industry, the price of metal silicon continued to fall, and silicone DMC accumulated; From the perspective of modified plastics, the supply of BOPP film was restored, and the sound of limiting film gradually weakened.
天然气股掀涨停潮！环氧丙烷概念联动爆发 欧洲能源供给偏紧 这些化工方向或可关注
Natural gas stocks are rising and falling! The concept of propylene oxide has exploded in tandem, and the energy supply in Europe is tight. These chemical directions may be concerned
（文章来源：华创证券）
(Source: Huachuang Securities)
