国泰君安证券：城市分化成为定局 房地产行业看好三个机会

Guotai Junan Securities: Urban differentiation has become a foregone conclusion. The real estate industry is optimistic about three opportunities

2015年棚改带来新周期，但前提是房企扩表和人口进城。2015-2017年棚改推动三四线城市的上行周期，与市场仅考虑需求端不同，其有三个前提：1)棚改需有土地出让作为政府前期投入资金的闭环，需房企扩表拿地支持；2)棚改带来中期土地净出让，需产业发展、人口进城保证动态平衡；3)需金融支持政府加杠杆作为催化剂，宏观层面也是新的宽信用渠道。2015年三者均具备：房企股权融资及发债融资放松，资产负债表和土储大幅扩张；农民工年净增在400万左右，部分资本驱动型产业仍有空间；PSL累积提供超3万亿贷款支持。棚改开工规模从300万套提升至超600万套，低能级城市迎来上行。

In 2015, the urban reform will bring a new cycle, but the premise is the expansion of housing enterprises and urban population. From 2015 to 2017, shantytown reform promoted the upward cycle of third-tier and fourth-tier cities, which was different from the market that only considered the demand end. It had three premises: 1) Shantytown reform needed land transfer as a closed loop of government investment in the early stage, and housing enterprises needed to expand the table to obtain land support; 2) The shantytown reform will bring about medium-term net land transfer, which needs industrial development and urban population to ensure dynamic balance; 3) Financial support is needed for the government to increase leverage as a catalyst, and the macro level is also a new credit channel. In 2015, all three have: the equity financing and bond financing of real estate enterprises are relaxed, and the balance sheet and land reserve are greatly expanded; The annual net increase of migrant workers is around 4 million, and there is still room for some capital-driven industries. The PSL has provided more than $3 trillion in loan support. The number of run-down housing projects has been increased from 3 million to over 6 million, and low-energy cities have seen an upswing.

2022年棚改被重新讨论，但力度和效果将不及2015年。2021年下半年市场下行，近期棚改作为后置政策被重新祭出，节奏与2015年较相似。但1)不仅地方政府配套支持力度不足，而且PSL规模仍在下滑，金融支持力度不足，预计2022年棚改新开工仅150万套左右，仅为高峰时期的1/4；2)短期看，房企处于缩表状态，拿地意愿不足，尤其对于低能级城市，导致棚改难以形成资金闭环，也难刺激额外购房需求释放；3)中期看，虽然2015年是以去库存为目标，但在卖地谋发展模式下，房企的库存去化周期实际是上升的，部分城市高库存问题并未实际解决，中期动态均衡失效导致棚改政策难以再现。

Shantytown reform has been rediscussed in 2022, but the intensity and effect will be less than that of 2015. In the second half of 2021, the market went down, and the recent shantytown reform was re-offered as a posterior policy, with a similar rhythm to 2015. However, 1) Not only the supporting support from local governments is insufficient, but also the scale of PSL is still declining and the financial support is insufficient. It is estimated that only about 1.5 million units will be started in 2022, which is only 1/4 of the peak period. 2) In the short term, real estate enterprises are in a state of downsizing and lack of willingness to acquire land, especially for low-energy cities, which makes it difficult to form a closed loop of capital and stimulate the release of additional housing demand; 3) In the medium term, although 2015 is aimed at destocking, the inventory destocking cycle of real estate enterprises is actually on the rise under the land sale development mode, and the problem of high inventory in some cities has not been actually solved. The failure of dynamic equilibrium in the medium term makes it difficult to reproduce the shantytown reform policy.

棚改难启也是需求端政策效果乏力的显现，根源在于经济增长从资本驱动转向全要素生产率驱动。1)过去地产繁荣源自经济处于资本驱动发展阶段，地产起到提供资本作用。房企加杠杆超前拿地，地方政府用基建、招商引资补贴、低价出让工业用地等方式，为经济增长提供资本。从而地产成为货币政策传导的重要一环，微观基础是房企负债率提升至80%。2)旧模式放大了政府在要素资源配置中的作用，发展重资本产业有一定优势。但在全要素生产率驱动经济增长阶段，经济聚集化、高端化，旧模式难以推动高质量增长，当前资本低回报率不仅造成经济结构扭曲，更蕴含高债务风险，从而本轮地产放松与历史周期极大不同，棚改亦难重启。3)政策拐点是2018年资管新规。

The difficulty in initiating shantytown reform is also a reflection of the weak effect of demand-side policies. The root cause lies in the shift of economic growth from capital-driven to TFP driven. 1) In the past, the real estate boom originated from the capital-driven development stage of the economy, and real estate played the role of providing capital. Real estate companies use leverage to acquire land in advance, and local governments provide capital for economic growth through infrastructure construction, subsidies to attract investment, and low-price transfers of industrial land. Thus, real estate has become an important part of monetary policy transmission, and the micro basis is that the debt ratio of real estate enterprises has increased to 80%. 2) The old model amplifies the role of the government in the allocation of factor resources, and has certain advantages in developing capital-heavy industries. However, in the stage of total factor productivity-driven economic growth, the economy is aggregated and high-end, and the old model is difficult to promote high-quality growth. The current low rate of return on capital not only causes distortion of the economic structure, but also contains high debt risk. Therefore, this round of real estate relaxation is very different from the historical cycle, and it is difficult to restart the shantytown reform. 3) The inflection point of the policy is the 2018 new regulations on asset management.

新模式下，城市分化的大趋势已经初现真容。城市分化已在进行时，2017年后非常明显，长三角城市群潜力巨大。复苏偏弱，看好三个机会：1)低风险资产资产荒，推荐有稳定现金流实物资产的房企，推荐中新集团、金融街；2)二线国央企结构性扩表，受益中交地产、建发股份，继续推荐头部国央企，万科A、保利发展、招商蛇口等；3)竣工成房企资金的重要来源，利好产业链。

Under the new model, the general trend of urban differentiation has begun to take shape. Urban differentiation is already in progress, and it is very obvious after 2017. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has great potential. The recovery is weak, optimistic about three opportunities: 1) Low-risk assets are scarce, housing enterprises with stable cash flow physical assets are recommended, and Zhongxin Group and Financial Street are recommended; 2) Structural expansion of central enterprises in second-tier countries, benefiting from CCCC Real Estate and Jianfa shares, and continuing to recommend head state central enterprises, Vanke A, Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, etc.; 3) It is an important source of funds for completed housing enterprises, which benefits the industrial chain.

风险提示：重走土地金融老路；疫情使得行业风险不可控。

Risk warning: Re-take the old road of land finance; The epidemic situation makes the industry risks uncontrollable.

（文章来源：国泰君安证券研究）

(Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research)