天风证券：量升价增成本改善 啤酒行业发展可高看一线

Tianfeng Securities: volume increase, price increase, cost improvement, beer industry development can be high-level

短期维度：22H2有望量价齐升，成本下行盈利能力改善

Short term dimension: 22h2 is expected to rise both in volume and price, with cost declining and profitability improving

1)收入端：高温+餐饮回暖+低基数，旺季迎来量升价增机会

1) Income side: high temperature food and beverage rebound low base, peak season ushered in the volume of price increase opportunities.

伴随啤酒行业步入旺季，自五月起持续改善恢复，下半年有望实现量价齐升，主要来自以下三方面因素推动：①21年旺季在疫情、天气、重点区域重点人群疫苗普及等影响下，销售表现承压，低基数下迎来量增改善机会。②全国持续高温，平均高温天数和平均气温高于常年同期，持续高温酷暑刺激啤酒饮用量增长，对行业板块情绪也起到提振效果。③疫情形势转好，线下餐饮回暖推动啤酒销量加速恢复，一方面，大排档、小餐馆等传统旺季重要消费场景复苏，另一方面，“啤酒+”线下中高端餐饮场景不断涌现，有望推动结构表现改善，拉升吨价水平。

As the beer industry enters the peak season, it has continued to improve and recover since May. It is expected that the volume and price will rise in the second half of the year, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: ① in the peak season of 21 years, under the influence of the epidemic situation, the weather, and the popularization of vaccines in key areas and key populations, the sales performance is under pressure, and there are opportunities for volume increase and improvement under the low base. ② The continuous high temperature in the country, the average high temperature days and the average temperature are higher than those in the same period of the year. The continuous high temperature and heat stimulate the growth of beer consumption and also boost the mood of the industry. ③ The epidemic situation has improved, and the recovery of offline catering has accelerated the recovery of beer sales. On the one hand, important consumption scenes such as large stalls and small restaurants in the traditional peak season have recovered; on the other hand, the continuous emergence of "beer +" offline high-end catering scenes is expected to promote the improvement of structural performance and pull up the ton price level.

2)成本端：原材料成本触顶回落，提价红利兑现可期

2) Cost side: raw material costs hit the top down, price increase dividend cash can be expected.

啤酒行业原材料占比高，20年起大宗商品价格逐步上涨，对啤酒行业成本端影响较大。但目前来看，大宗商品价格已于今年Q2-Q3出现拐点，包材瓦楞纸、铝和玻璃价格明显出现松动下行，进口大麦价格仍居高位但涨幅有放缓趋势。去年起，各啤酒企业进行被动提价覆盖成本上涨，伴随提价落地及大宗价格下行，盈利弹性有望进一步释放。经我们测算，按照目前原材料回落幅度(截至8月，玻璃/瓦楞纸/铝合金较年初价格分别下跌10.22%/9.43%/12.24%)，若从Q3起应用新采购价格，青岛啤酒/重庆啤酒毛利率将上升0.9%/0.8%，净利率上升0.6%/0.3%；若从Q4起应用新采购价格，青岛啤酒/重庆啤酒毛利率将上升0.5%/0.4%，净利率上升0.3%/0.2%。报表端传导顺畅有望体现成本下跌带来的利润弹性。

The proportion of raw materials in the beer industry is high. Since 20 years, the price of bulk commodities has gradually increased, which has a great impact on the cost side of the beer industry. However, at present, the price of bulk commodities has reached an inflection point in q2-q3 of this year. The prices of corrugated paper, aluminum and glass for packaging materials have obviously eased and declined. The price of imported barley is still high, but the increase has slowed down. Since last year, all beer enterprises have been passively raising prices to cover the rising costs. With the falling of prices and bulk prices, the profit elasticity is expected to be further released. According to our calculation, according to the current drop of raw materials (as of August, the price of glass / corrugated paper / aluminum alloy has dropped by 10.22% / 9.43% / 12.24% respectively compared with the beginning of the year), if the new purchase price is applied from Q3, the gross profit rate of Tsingtao Beer / Chongqing beer will rise by 0.9% / 0.8%, and the net profit rate will rise by 0.6% / 0.3%; If the new purchase price is applied from Q4, the gross profit rate of Tsingtao Beer / Chongqing beer will increase by 0.5% / 0.4%, and the net profit rate will increase by 0.3% / 0.2%. The smooth transmission at the report end is expected to reflect the profit elasticity brought by the cost reduction.

长期维度：结构优化升级主旋律持续演绎，成效有待加速释放

Long-term dimension: the main theme of structural optimization and upgrading continues to be interpreted, and the results need to be accelerated.

我们认为啤酒行业提升盈利能力有三条途径——直接提价、产能优化、产品结构升级。直接提价短期有效，但长期并不具备基础；产能优化可以一次性改善公司盈利能力，但不具备可持续性；而随着消费者观念的升级，通过更高品质的产品来改善产品结构，推动吨酒价的提升是行业的发展方向。

We believe that there are three ways to improve the profitability of the beer industry - direct price increase, capacity optimization and product structure upgrading. Direct price increase is effective in the short term, but has no foundation in the long term; Capacity optimization can improve the profitability of the company at one time, but it is not sustainable; With the upgrading of consumer concepts, the industry's development direction is to improve the product structure through higher quality products and promote the price of per ton of wine.

结构升级成果尚未充分显现，强大势能有待释放。我们认为，行业高端化初期低端产品销量不断下滑，叠加疫情及原材料涨价带来的短期压力制约，啤酒行业结构升级对于业绩端的提振作用并未充分显现。随着18、19年，低端产品的产量和销售额不断企稳、疫情有所缓解、原材料成本触顶回落，中高端产品占比不断提升，结构升级有望释放强大势能。

The results of structural upgrading have not been fully demonstrated, and the strong potential energy needs to be released. We believe that the sales volume of low-end products in the early stage of the industry's high-end development continued to decline, and the short-term pressure constraints caused by the epidemic and the price rise of raw materials did not fully show the boosting effect of the beer industry structure upgrading on the performance. In the past 18 and 19 years, the output and sales of low-end products have stabilized, the epidemic situation has eased, the cost of raw materials has dropped, the proportion of medium and high-end products has increased, and the structural upgrading is expected to release strong potential energy.

环比延续改善趋势，高温+餐饮回暖有望实现良好增长。啤酒行业环比改善趋势显著，一方面伴随疫情有所缓解及消费信心提振，即饮渠道场景消费转暖；另一方面，今年各地高温天气较多，动销有望加速。在去年整体低基数下，销量端有望维持良好增长。此外，包材成本的回落也有望在下半年体现，整体呈现景气改善态势。长期来看行业高端化进程加速，伴随整体竞争格局持续优化，结构升级逻辑在供给端巨头的推动下持续强化，看好整体行业Beta性机会。重点推荐青岛啤酒，建议关注重庆啤酒和燕京啤酒。

The month on month improvement trend continues, and high temperature + food and beverage warming is expected to achieve good growth. The improvement trend of the beer industry is significant. On the one hand, with the easing of the epidemic and the boosting of consumer confidence, the consumption of the ready to drink channel scene has become warmer; On the other hand, there are many high-temperature weather in various places this year, and mobile sales are expected to accelerate. Under the overall low base of last year, the sales end is expected to maintain good growth. In addition, the drop in the cost of packaging materials is also expected to be reflected in the second half of the year, and the overall situation is improving. In the long run, the high-end process of the industry has accelerated. With the continuous optimization of the overall competition pattern, the logic of structural upgrading has been continuously strengthened under the promotion of the supply side giants. We are optimistic about the beta opportunities of the whole industry. Qingdao beer is recommended, and Chongqing beer and Yanjing beer are recommended.

风险提示：原材料价格波动，高端市场竞争加剧，新冠疫情反复等风险。本文对盈利的测算是基于一定前提假设，存在假设条件不成立、市场发展不及预期等因素导致测算结果偏差。

Risk Warning: Raw material price fluctuations, increased competition in the high-end market, repeated risks such as the new crown epidemic. The measurement of earnings in this paper is based on certain assumptions, there are assumptions that do not hold, market development is not as expected and other factors lead to the deviation of the measurement results.

（文章来源：天风证券）

(Source: Tianfeng Securities)