详解美联储“加息魔咒”

Explanation of the Federal Reserve's "Curse of Interest Rate hikes"

对其他经济体来说，抵御美联储加息的外溢影响，最好的办法就是宏观政策尤其是货币政策要依据本国经济形势“照方抓药”。

For other economies, the best way to resist the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is for macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policies, to be tailored to the domestic economic situation.

阎 岳

Yan Yue

在刚刚召开的伯克希尔·哈撒韦2023年年度股东大会上，巴菲特说，通胀是目前最需要解决的问题。芒格则强调，“为了我们的共同利益，我们应该与中国进行大量的自由贸易。”这是两位久负盛名的投资家对美国高通胀的看法。

At the recently held Berkshire Hathaway 2023 annual shareholders' meeting, Buffett said that inflation is currently the most urgent issue to be addressed. Munger emphasized, "For our common interests, we should engage in a large amount of free trade with China." This is the view of two renowned investors on high inflation in the United States.

但美联储显然不这么认为。在当地时间5月3日如期加息25个基点之后，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，强烈致力于将通胀率降回2%，如果需要，准备采取更多措施。

But the Federal Reserve clearly doesn't think so. After raising interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled on May 3rd local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed strong commitment to bringing inflation back to 2% and preparing to take more measures if needed.

美国3月份CPI同比增长5%，为2021年5月份以来的最小涨幅，但距离鲍威尔的目标还有3个百分点。为了消灭这3个百分点，市场期盼的降息恐怕还要再等一等，美国的银行业也将继续承受变相的压力测试。

The US CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in March, the smallest increase since May 2021, but it is still 3 percentage points away from Powell's target. In order to eliminate these 3 percentage points, the expected interest rate cut in the market may have to wait a bit longer, and the US banking industry will continue to bear disguised stress tests.

美联储本轮加息已达10次，累计500个基点，银行业、实体企业不堪重负。但美联储为了降低通胀，已到了不管不顾的程度。

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times this round, totaling 500 basis points, and the banking industry and physical enterprises are overwhelmed. But the Federal Reserve has reached a point of disregarding it in order to reduce inflation.

在探讨美联储加息的影响前，我们首先应该探寻美国的高通胀从哪里来。笔者认为，货币、财政政策进退失据，产业链供应链管理混乱，是两大核心原因。

Before exploring the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, we should first explore where high inflation in the United States comes from. The author believes that monetary and fiscal policies are inconsistent, and the management of the industrial and supply chains is chaotic, which are two core reasons.

在新冠疫情暴发之前，美国长期处于低利率、低通胀环境中，货币政策工具使用起来游刃有余。然而，随着新冠疫情暴发，美国采取了在当时看来颇为有效的大规模财政补助和超宽松货币政策。起点是对的，但这终究是应急政策，一用再用、乐此不疲，则使“对的起点”拉长为错误的抛物线。

Before the outbreak of the COVID-19, the United States was in a low interest rate and low inflation environment for a long time, and monetary policy tools were easy to use. However, with the outbreak of the COVID-19, the United States adopted large-scale financial subsidies and ultra loose monetary policies that seemed to be quite effective at that time. The starting point is correct, but this is ultimately an emergency policy. If used repeatedly and enjoyed, it will elongate the "right starting point" into a wrong parabola.

无独有偶，在全球抗疫期间，美国不顾大局，不断挑起贸易战，制裁大棒起起落落，其造成的严重后果之一就是美国供应链混乱。那时，每逢财政补贴下发之后，美国超市里的部分商品就被抢购一空。

Coincidentally, during the global anti epidemic period, the United States disregarded the overall situation and constantly provoked trade wars, with sanctions rising and falling. One of the serious consequences of this was the chaos of the US supply chain. At that time, after the issuance of financial subsidies, some products in American supermarkets were sold out.

宏观政策的剧烈变化以及对产业链供应链造成的阻滞，再加上地缘政治等因素骤然变化，美国的高通胀大潮汹涌而来。

The drastic changes in macroeconomic policies and the obstacles caused to the industrial and supply chains, coupled with sudden changes in geopolitical factors, have led to a surge in high inflation in the United States.

其次，美联储激进加息的抗通胀效果如何？从理论上来看，加息是对抗通胀的最有效手段之一。但从美联储此轮加息抗通胀的效果来看，似乎距离政策初衷有点远。为什么会出现这种现象呢？

Secondly, what is the anti inflation effect of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes? In theory, raising interest rates is one of the most effective means to combat inflation. But judging from the anti inflation effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike this round, it seems that it is a bit far from the original intention of the policy. Why does this phenomenon occur?

笔者认为，这是因为美联储没有对症下药或者根本就没有找到病灶。在疫情影响减弱、一些经济体宏观政策回归常态之后，美国仍旧沉醉在超常规政策对经济的刺激里不能自拔，在产业链供应链层面仍旧以主导者的姿态指手画脚。在通胀来临之后，则采用简单粗暴的连续大幅加息措施来应对，后果就是加息效力递减，副作用大增。

The author believes that this is because the Federal Reserve did not prescribe the right medicine or did not find the lesion at all. After the weakened impact of the epidemic and the return of macroeconomic policies to normalcy in some economies, the United States is still immersed in the stimulation of unconventional policies on the economy, unable to extricate itself, and still acts as a leader in the industrial chain and supply chain. After the onset of inflation, simple and crude measures of continuous and significant interest rate hikes are adopted to cope, resulting in a diminishing effect of interest rate hikes and a significant increase in side effects.

摩根士丹利前亚洲区主席、耶鲁大学高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇认为，美联储错误地认定当时的通货膨胀为暂时通货膨胀，在认识到错误时为时已晚。纠正错误时又速度过快，动摇了金融体系的稳定性，导致了硅谷银行危机持续发酵，并令很多区域银行遭受危机。

Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley's Asia region and senior researcher at Yale University, believes that the Federal Reserve mistakenly identified inflation as temporary, and it was too late to recognize the mistake. Correcting mistakes too quickly has shaken the stability of the financial system, leading to the continuous fermentation of the Silicon Valley banking crisis and causing many regional banks to suffer from the crisis.

特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克对美联储的批评也是毫不留情，“事情比他们意识到的更糟糕”“进一步加息将引发严重的经济衰退”。

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was also merciless in his criticism of the Federal Reserve, stating that "things are worse than they realize" and that further interest rate hikes will trigger a serious economic recession.

“睫在眼前犹不见”，是美联储对待美国区域性银行危机的真实态度。一份研究美国银行系统脆弱性的报告提出，当前经济环境下，如有半数储户决定提取其未受保存款，据估算全美将有186家银行可能因挤兑而资不抵债，像硅谷银行那样“垮掉”。

"The real attitude of the Federal Reserve towards the regional banking crisis in the United States is that it is still invisible in front of its eyes. A report on the vulnerability of the U.S. banking system proposed that, in the current economic environment, if half of depositors decide to withdraw their uninsured deposits, it is estimated that 186 banks in the United States may become insolvency due to bank runs, like Silicon Valley banks.

第三，美联储加息对其他经济体的影响有多大？美国作为世界上重要的经济体之一，其在货币政策上的一举一动必然或多或少传导至其他经济体。但从美国本轮加息的情况看，除了几个亦步亦趋的经济体之外，新兴经济体开始走出“独立行情”：有的坚持以我为主主动调降市场利率，有的在去年9月份就已结束加息周期，有的在今年4月份宣布暂停加息，有的根据本国经济情况继续大幅上调基础利率。这种货币政策“分化”的后果之一，就是越来越多的经济体不再对美元抱有幻想，美联储在“失道寡助”的道路上越走越远。

Thirdly, how significant is the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on other economies? As one of the world's important economies, the United States' every move in monetary policy is inevitably transmitted to other economies to some extent. However, from the current round of interest rate hikes in the United States, except for a few economies that have followed suit, emerging economies are starting to emerge from the "independent market": some insist on actively lowering market interest rates, some have ended the interest rate hike cycle since September last year, some announced a pause in interest rate hikes in April this year, and some continue to significantly increase base rates based on their own economic situation. One of the consequences of this "polarization" of monetary policy is that an increasing number of economies no longer have illusions about the US dollar, and the Federal Reserve is going further and further on the path of "being helpless".

笔者认为，由美联储激进加息带来的美国银行业动荡还没有过去，对其他经济体造成的冲击虽未结束但影响日减。对其他经济体来说，抵御美联储加息的外溢影响，最好的办法就是宏观政策尤其是货币政策要依据本国经济形势“照方抓药”。要确保产业链供应链安全稳定。政府部门和相关机构要加强对形势的研判分析，摸清家底，筑好篱笆，做好风控预案。

The author believes that the turmoil in the US banking industry caused by the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes has not yet passed, and the impact on other economies has not ended, but the impact is decreasing. For other economies, the best way to resist the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is for macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policies, to be tailored to the domestic economic situation. To ensure the safety and stability of the industrial and supply chains. Government departments and relevant institutions should strengthen the analysis and analysis of the situation, understand the family background, build fences, and prepare risk control plans.