德银：连续供应赤字支撑铂金价格，预计明年达1550美元/盎司

Deutsche Bank: Continuous supply deficit supports platinum prices, expected to reach $1,550 per ounce next year

【环球网财经综合报道】据德银分析师在报告中所提，自2023年以来，铂金便出现了显著的短缺。到明年，铂金的基本面短缺将进入第四个年头，连续四年的供应赤字为价格提供了坚实支撑。

[Global Network Financial Comprehensive Report] According to the report of Deutsche Bank analysts, there has been a significant shortage of platinum since 2023. By next year, platinum's fundamental shortage will enter its fourth year, with four consecutive years of supply deficits providing solid support for prices.

与2018 - 2022年水平相比，铂金在汽车催化剂领域的需求依然旺盛。特别是插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）销售表现相较于纯电动汽车（BEVs）更为强劲，这可能会减缓铂族金属催化剂需求的下降速度，远低于之前对未来几年需求下滑的预期。

Platinum remains in strong demand in automotive catalysts compared to 2018-2022 levels. In particular, the sales performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is stronger than that of pure electric vehicles (BEVs), which may slow down the decline in demand for platinum group metal catalysts, which is far lower than the previous decline in demand in the next few years. expect.

德银还提到，过去两个月铂金形势发生了变化。一方面，黄金转向铂金的珠宝制造替代品趋势得到支持；另一方面，铂金租赁利率的上涨被视为物理短缺的迹象,此外，连续几年的赤字可能已侵蚀了工业库存，导致需要进行一些补充库存。

Deutsche Bank also mentioned that the platinum situation has changed in the past two months. On the one hand, the trend of gold shifting to platinum as a jewelry-making alternative is supported; On the other hand, rising platinum lease rates are seen as a sign of physical shortages, and consecutive years of deficits may have eroded industrial inventories, leading to the need for some replenishment.

德银认为2026年铂金价格可能达到1550美元/盎司，相比其基础预测的1400美元/盎司还有上涨空间。不过，高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在报告中却表达了截然不同的观点，认为推动铂金冲向1280美元/盎司的主要力量是投机和ETF需求，而非基本面的根本性改善。高盛认为，一旦投机热情消退，价格回调将不可避免。（南木）

Deutsche Bank believes that the price of platinum may reach US $1,550/oz in 2026, which is still room for growth compared with its basic forecast of US $1,400/oz. However, Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven expressed completely different views in the report, arguing that the main forces driving platinum towards $1,280 an ounce are speculation and ETF demand, rather than fundamental improvements in fundamentals. Goldman Sachs believes that once speculative enthusiasm subsides, a price correction will be inevitable. (Nanmu)