巴西化工业开工率持续下滑

Brazilian chemical industry operating rate continues to decline

近日，巴西化学工业协会(Abiquim)公布的数据显示，2025年第一季度巴西化工行业创下三十余年来最差表现：开工率降至62%，较2024年第一季度的65%进一步下滑，产量同比下降3.8%。尽管巴西于2024年10月对数十种化工产品大幅提高进口关税，寄望此举能部分缓解海外低价竞品的冲击，但行业颓势仍在延续。年初至今，巴西化学品进口量虽有所趋稳但仍处高位，国内化工生产商举步维艰。

Recently, data released by the Brazilian Association of Chemical Industry (Abiquim) showed that in the first quarter of 2025, the Brazilian chemical industry achieved its worst performance in more than 30 years: the operating rate dropped to 62%, a further decline from 65% in the first quarter of 2024. Output fell 3.8% year-on-year. Although Brazil significantly increased import tariffs on dozens of chemical products in October 2024, hoping that this move will partially alleviate the impact of overseas low-priced competing products, the industry's decline continues. Since the beginning of the year, although Brazil's chemical imports have stabilized, they are still at a high level, and domestic chemical manufacturers are struggling.

Abiquim指出，贸易保护主义措施正“产生积极效果”，因为2025年第一季度巴西化学品进口渗透率从2024年同期的53%降至43%。然而截至2025年3月的12个月内，工业化学品进口仍占据巴西国内消费总量的49%。多个细分领域进口量同比增幅达两位数：热塑性树脂为23.7%、无机化学品为31.2%、有机化学品为27.4%、合成纤维中间体为28.6%及工业溶剂为14.7%。基础石化产品进口量亦增长8.6%。

Abiquim noted that trade protectionist measures are "having a positive effect" as Brazil's chemical import penetration rate fell to 43% in the first quarter of 2025 from 53% in the same period in 2024. However, in the 12 months to March 2025, industrial chemical imports still accounted for 49% of Brazil's total domestic consumption. Imports in multiple segments increased by double digits year-on-year: thermoplastic resins were 23.7%, inorganic chemicals were 31.2%, organic chemicals were 27.4%, synthetic fiber intermediates were 28.6% and industrial solvents were 14.7%. Imports of basic petrochemical products also increased by 8.6%.

巴西聚合物巨头、拉美最大石化生产商布拉斯科公司透露，今年一季度其开工率为74%，同比持平但较去年四季度的70%有所回升。

Blasco, a Brazilian polymer giant and the largest petrochemical producer in Latin America, revealed that its operating rate in the first quarter of this year was 74%, which was flat year-on-year but rebounded from 70% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Abiquim称：“今年一季度巴西化工行业62%的开工率均值为该机构1990年有记录以来的最低水平。化肥中间体(开工率43%)、塑料中间体(开工率45%)、合成纤维中间体(开工率51%)和增塑剂中间体(开工率53%)等领域的闲置率均超过38%的行业均值。这些数据凸显了巴西化工行业正在全球市场持续丧失竞争力，尤其是面临来自美国和亚洲进口的竞争，同时还受制于能源、天然气和税收的高成本压力。”

Abiquim said: "In the first quarter of this year, the average operating rate of 62% in Brazil's chemical industry was the lowest level since the agency began records in 1990. Fertilizer intermediates (operating rate 43%), plastic intermediates (operating rate 45%), synthetic fiber The idle rates in fields such as intermediates (operating rate 51%) and plasticizer intermediates (operating rate 53%) all exceed the industry average of 38%. These data highlight the continued loss of competitiveness in the Brazilian chemical industry in the global market, especially facing competition from imports from the United States and Asia, while also being subject to high cost pressures in energy, natural gas and taxes. "

进口激增还体现在不断扩大的化工贸易逆差上。截至2025年3月的近12个月内，巴西化工贸易逆差达498.2亿美元，超过此前486.8亿美元的峰值。

The surge in imports is also reflected in the widening chemical trade deficit. In the nearly 12 months to March 2025, Brazil's chemical trade deficit stood at $49.82 billion, surpassing its previous peak of $48.68 billion.

Abiquim首席执行官安德烈·帕索斯试图以外部因素解释巴西化工企业的困境。他指出：“由于严重依赖进口，巴西及拉美化工生产商在全球市场只能扮演‘价格接受者’的角色。因此，巴西化工生产不仅受原油、石脑油和天然气价格波动影响，还受制于俄乌冲突及全球供需格局。巴西雷亚尔对美元的汇率波动也显著影响国内市场。”

Abiquim CEO Andre Passos tried to explain the plight of Brazilian chemical companies in terms of external factors. He pointed out: "Due to their heavy dependence on imports, Brazilian and Latin American chemical producers can only play the role of'price takers' in the global market. Therefore, Brazilian chemical production is not only affected by price fluctuations of crude oil, naphtha and natural gas, but also subject to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the global supply and demand pattern. Fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the US dollar also significantly affect the domestic market."

巴西化工生产商对巴西议会正在讨论的新刺激计划Presiq寄予厚望，该计划可能取代此前针对特定原料采购的税收减免政策REIQ。Abiquim表示，Presiq将更贴合时代需求，通过基于低碳项目的智能税收激励推动行业复苏。帕索斯称：“Presiq可能对经济产生结构性影响。除了减少化工行业贸易逆差，其目标之一是将工厂开工率提升至95%，预计可对GDP产生1120亿雷亚尔的正向拉动，创造多达170万个直接和间接就业岗位。该计划还能新增655亿雷亚尔税收收入，同时解决巴西化工行业面临的结构性难题。

Brazilian chemical producers have high hopes for Presiq, a new stimulus package being discussed in Brazil's parliament, which could replace REIQ, a previous tax break policy for specific feedstock purchases. Abiquim said that Presiq will be more in line with the needs of the times and promote industry recovery through smart tax incentives based on low-carbon projects. Passos said: "Presiq may have a structural impact on the economy. In addition to reducing the trade deficit in the chemical industry, one of its goals is to increase the factory operating rate to 95%, which is expected to generate a positive boost of 112 billion reais to GDP and create as many as 1.7 million direct and indirect jobs. The plan can also increase tax revenue by 65.5 billion reais, while solving the structural problems faced by Brazil's chemical industry.

然而，部分消息人士表示，仅靠政府的保护主义措施不足以让化工生产商摆脱目前市场的残酷现实。一方面，巴西的生产成本远高于北美或中东等竞争地区，且拉美地区化工生产仍以原油衍生的石脑油为主要原料，而北美的竞争对手则凭借丰富的天然气基乙烷原料蓬勃发展。

However, some sources said that the protectionist measures of the government alone will not be enough to get chemical producers out of the harsh realities of the current market. On the one hand, production costs in Brazil are much higher than those in competitive regions such as North America or the Middle East, and chemical production in Latin America still uses crude-derived naphtha as the main feedstock, while competitors in North America are thriving on abundant natural gas-based ethane feedstocks.

虽然布拉斯科公司计划逐步转向乙烷原料，但这需要未来数年投入巨额资金，当前全球化工行业低迷已令其财务承压，更不要说稳定的天然气供应尚未落实，该公司仍在与巴西国有能源巨头巴西国油谈判。

Although Blasco plans to gradually switch to ethane feedstock, this will require huge investment in the next few years. The current downturn in the global chemical industry has put pressure on its finances, not to mention that a stable natural gas supply has not yet been implemented. The company is still negotiating with Brazil's state-owned energy giant Petrobras.