预计2024年国内石油消费量为7.58亿吨，同比增长1%

It is estimated that the domestic oil consumption in 2024 will be 758 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%

2月28日，国家高端智库中国石油集团经济技术研究院在京发布《2023年油气行业发展报告》。报告系统分析了国内外油气行业发展，剖析重大事件和热点问题，形成对油气行业发展态势的认识和判断。同时，对2024年油气行业发展趋势进行了展望，为国家、行业、企业以及研究机构等了解行业状况、把握发展趋势提供参考。

On February 28th, CNPC Economic and Technological Research Institute, a national high-end think tank, released the Oil and Gas Industry Development Report in 2023 in Beijing. The report systematically analyzes the development of oil and gas industry at home and abroad, analyzes major events and hot issues, and forms an understanding and judgment on the development trend of oil and gas industry. At the same time, the development trend of oil and gas industry in 2024 is prospected, which provides reference for countries, industries, enterprises and research institutions to understand the industry situation and grasp the development trend.

经济回暖 石油消费稳中有升

The economy is picking up, and oil consumption is rising steadily

石油是全球最重要的大宗商品，具有商品、政治和金融三重属性。近年来，政经格局深刻变革、技术革命和产业变革加速演进，“灰犀牛”“黑天鹅”事件频频发生，推动世界石油市场变革加速。

Oil is the most important commodity in the world, which has triple attributes of commodity, politics and finance. In recent years, the political and economic structure has undergone profound changes, the technological revolution and industrial changes have accelerated, and the incidents of "grey rhinoceros" and "black swan" have occurred frequently, which has accelerated the changes in the world oil market.

2023年，国际石油市场呈现油价地缘溢价削减但波动加剧、需求加快复苏但分化加剧、供给侧管理强化但博弈加大、市场与贸易格局加快重塑等诸多新特征。从全年油价看，布伦特原油期货均价为82.17美元/桶，较2022年的99.04美元/桶下跌17%。上半年，美联储连续加息以及欧美银行业动荡、宏观经济形势担忧主导市场情绪，国际油价震荡下行。三季度，美元加息周期接近尾声，沙特、俄罗斯自愿延续减产至年底，市场供应显著收紧，石油库存降至低位水平，国际油价一度持续反弹。四季度，石油消费进入淡季，石油降库速度放缓，国际油价再次回落。

In 2023, the international oil market presents many new characteristics, such as a reduction in oil price geopolitical premiums but increased volatility, an accelerated recovery but intensified differentiation in demand, strengthened supply side management but increased competition, and an accelerated reshaping of market and trade patterns. From the perspective of annual oil prices, the average price of Brent crude oil futures is 82.17 USD/barrel, a 17% decrease from the 2022 USD 99.04 USD/barrel. In the first half of the year, the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as well as the turbulence in the banking industry in Europe and America and concerns about macroeconomic conditions, dominated market sentiment, leading to a downward trend in international oil prices. In the third quarter, as the US dollar interest rate hike cycle approached its end, Saudi Arabia and Russia voluntarily continued to reduce production until the end of the year. Market supply significantly tightened, oil inventories fell to low levels, and international oil prices continued to rebound. In the fourth quarter, oil consumption entered the off-season, and the speed of oil inventory reduction slowed down, causing international oil prices to fall again.

2024年，国际石油市场总体宽松，油价中枢或将下移，但仍处中高位水平。从需求看，后疫情时代全球石油消费恢复性反弹阶段结束将回归常态，加之新能源汽车的迅猛发展对石油消费影响加大，全球石油需求增速将放缓，预计同比仅增95万桶/日，远低于2023年220万桶/日水平。从供给看，美国、加拿大、巴西等国家的产量将继续保持快速增长态势，能满足全球需求增量。若欧佩克+保持当前控产力度，供给将略大于需求。但全球石油库存仍保持低位，油价有一定底部支撑，预计国际油价中枢较2023年略有下移，布伦特原油均价或将在75—85美元/桶。未来，石油市场面临的不确定性仍极为巨大，油价大涨大跌不能排除。

In 2024, the international oil market is generally loose, and the oil price center may move downwards, but it is still at a medium to high level. From a demand perspective, the end of the post pandemic period of global oil consumption recovery will return to normal. In addition, the rapid development of new energy vehicles will have a greater impact on oil consumption, and the growth rate of global oil demand will slow down. It is expected to only increase by 950000 barrels per day year-on-year, far below the level of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023. From a supply perspective, the production of countries such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend, which can meet the increasing global demand. If OPEC+maintains its current production control measures, supply will slightly exceed demand. However, global oil inventories remain low, with some bottom support for oil prices. It is expected that the international oil price center will slightly shift downwards compared to 2023, and the average Brent crude oil price may be between $75-85 per barrel. In the future, the uncertainty faced by the oil market remains extremely significant, and the significant rise and fall in oil prices cannot be ruled out.

近年来，国内油气行业努力改革创新，不断提升产业链供应链韧性，有力应对了国际市场波动，保障了经济社会发展和居民出行用油。

In recent years, the domestic oil and gas industry has made great efforts to reform and innovate, continuously improved the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain, effectively responded to the fluctuations in the international market, and ensured the economic and social development and residents' travel oil.

2023年，中国石油市场全面从疫情后复苏，多项指标创历史最高纪录，全年石油消费量约7.5亿吨、原油加工量7.43亿吨，均创历史新高，同比分别增长10.7%和8.8%；成品油消费量3.99亿吨，同比增长9.4%，恢复至2019年同期水平的98.5%。国内原油产量稳中有升，达2.08亿吨，同比增长1.8%；原油进口量达5.6亿吨，同比增长10.3%；成品油产量4.44亿吨，同比增长11.1%。特别是国内成品油市场在政府和行业努力下，供应充足、灵活性增强、市场规范有序等特征明显，但新能源汽车的替代加速及供给能力明显过剩等挑战不容小觑。

In 2023, the Chinese oil market fully recovered from the epidemic, with multiple indicators reaching historical highs. The annual oil consumption was about 750 million tons, and the crude oil processing volume was 743 million tons, both reaching historical highs, with year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 8.8%, respectively; The consumption of refined oil reached 399 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, recovering to 98.5% of the same period in 2019. The domestic crude oil production remained stable with an increase, reaching 208 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The import volume of crude oil reached 560 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; The production of refined oil reached 444 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Especially with the efforts of the government and industry, the domestic refined oil market has obvious characteristics such as sufficient supply, enhanced flexibility, and orderly market regulation. However, the challenges of accelerating the replacement of new energy vehicles and significantly excess supply capacity cannot be underestimated.

2024年，我国经济回升向好有利于石油消费稳中有进，但大幅度恢复性反弹阶段已经结束，加之新能源汽车渗透率的进一步提升，石油特别是成品油消费增速将进一步放缓，预计2024年国内石油消费量为7.58亿吨，同比增长1%；成品油消费量为4亿吨，同比增长0.3%。2024年，镇海炼化、裕龙岛石化将投产，支撑国内原油加工量，预计全年原油加工量为7.53亿吨，同比增长1.8%；成品油产量为4.51亿吨，同比增加1.6%，成品油市场依旧宽松。

In 2024, the rebound of China's economy is conducive to stable and progressive oil consumption, but the stage of significant recovery rebound has ended. In addition, with the further increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the growth rate of oil consumption, especially refined oil consumption, will further slow down. It is expected that the domestic oil consumption in 2024 will be 758 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%; The consumption of refined oil products was 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. In 2024, Zhenhai Refining and Petrochemical and Yulong Island Petrochemical will be put into operation, supporting the domestic crude oil processing volume. It is expected that the annual crude oil processing volume will be 753 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The production of refined oil products was 451 million tons, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, and the refined oil market remains loose.

供需宽松 天然气市场持续调整

The natural gas market with loose supply and demand continues to adjust

2023年，地缘溢价逐步消退，国际气价大幅回落，天然气市场缓慢恢复，供需趋于宽松。全年消费增速由负转正，估计消费量为3.96万亿立方米，同比增长0.5%。其中，亚太消费增速约1.8%，中国、印度等为增量的主要贡献者；北美消费增速放缓至1.2%；欧洲消费同比下降约6.2%，连续两年下降。估计2023年全球天然气产量为4.28万亿立方米，同比增长0.8%，“美升俄降”趋势延续。气价从历史高点大幅回落，欧洲TTF现货、东北亚LNG现货和美国HH现货均价分别为12.9美元/百万英热单位、15.8美元/百万英热单位和2.54美元/百万英热单位，同比分别下跌65.8%、54.4%和60.5%。国际天然气贸易格局持续演变，俄罗斯管道气持续退出欧洲市场，亚洲推动LNG贸易增长。俄罗斯出口欧洲管道气490亿立方米，同比下降364亿立方米。全球LNG贸易量为4.11亿吨，同比增长2%。欧洲进口量为1.26亿吨，同比下降1.8%；亚洲进口量为2.64亿吨，同比增长3.5%。

In 2023, the geopolitical premium gradually subsided, international gas prices fell significantly, the natural gas market slowly recovered, and supply and demand tended to be loose. The annual consumption growth rate has changed from negative to positive, with an estimated consumption of 3.96 trillion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Among them, the consumption growth rate in the Asia Pacific region is about 1.8%, with China, India, and other major contributors to the increment; The growth rate of North American consumption has slowed down to 1.2%; European consumption has decreased by approximately 6.2% year-on-year, marking two consecutive years of decline. It is estimated that the global natural gas production in 2023 will be 4.28 trillion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the trend of "the United States rising and Russia falling" will continue. Gas prices have fallen significantly from historical highs, with the average prices of European TTF spot, Northeast Asian LNG spot, and US HH spot being $12.9 per million British thermal units, $15.8 per million British thermal units, and $2.54 per million British thermal units, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 65.8%, 54.4%, and 60.5%. The international natural gas trade pattern continues to evolve, with Russia's pipeline gas continuing to exit the European market and Asia driving the growth of LNG trade. Russia exported 49 billion cubic meters of European pipeline gas, a year-on-year decrease of 36.4 billion cubic meters. The global LNG trade volume was 411 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The import volume in Europe was 126 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; The import volume from Asia was 264 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.

2024年，全球天然气市场将延续脆弱平衡态势，不确定性风险增加。预计天然气消费量为4.02万亿立方米，增速1.5%，继续由亚洲的中国、印度和新兴市场拉动；欧洲天然气消费持续下降。上游油气投资增加，预计全球天然气产量为4.37万亿立方米，增速为2%。北美和中东持续增产，俄罗斯产量有望回升。全球LNG市场呈总体宽松、阶段性紧张局面。三大市场气价“两跌一涨”，欧亚气价持续下降，美国气价小幅上升，但波动均更加频繁。

In 2024, the global natural gas market will continue to be fragile and balanced, and the risk of uncertainty will increase. It is estimated that natural gas consumption will be 4.02 trillion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.5%, which will continue to be driven by China, India and emerging markets in Asia; Natural gas consumption in Europe continues to decline. Upstream oil and gas investment has increased, and the global natural gas production is estimated to be 4.37 trillion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2%. North America and the Middle East continue to increase production, and Russia's output is expected to pick up. The global LNG market is generally loose and tense in stages. Gas prices in the three major markets "fell twice and rose once", gas prices in Europe and Asia continued to decline, and gas prices in the United States rose slightly, but fluctuated more frequently.

2023年，受宏观经济回升向好、气价下行和替代能源供应等因素综合影响，中国天然气消费量为3917亿立方米，同比增长6.6%。全年国产气2353亿立方米（含煤制气），增速5.7%，连续7年增产超100亿立方米。受国际油气价格下跌影响，进口天然气恢复增长，进口总量1656亿立方米，增速9.5%。对外依存度为42.3%，较上年上涨1.1个百分点。其中，进口管道气受中俄东线增量拉动，达到671亿立方米，同比增长6.4%；进口LNG7132万吨（约984亿立方米），同比增长11.7%。基础设施建设取得积极进展。西气东输三线湖北段、蒙西管道一期等管道投产，中俄东线、西气东输一线等主干管道实现互联互通。截至2023年底，天然气长输管道总里程达8.7万公里。中国在役储气库（群）29座，储气调峰能力达230亿立方米，占国内天然气消费量的5.9%。新天唐山、天津南港等6座LNG接收站投产（含扩建），合计新增LNG接收能力1880万吨/年。截至2023年底，全国总接收能力达1.16亿吨/年，首破1亿吨。

In 2023, due to the comprehensive impact of macroeconomic recovery, downward gas prices, and alternative energy supply, China's natural gas consumption reached 391.7 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The annual domestic gas production was 235.3 billion cubic meters (including coal to gas), with a growth rate of 5.7%, and an increase of over 10 billion cubic meters for seven consecutive years. Affected by the decline in international oil and gas prices, imported natural gas has resumed growth, with a total import volume of 165.6 billion cubic meters, a growth rate of 9.5%. The degree of external dependence was 42.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, imported pipeline gas was driven by the increment of the China Russia East Line, reaching 67.1 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; Imported LNG71.32 million tons (approximately 98.4 billion cubic meters), a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. Positive progress has been made in infrastructure construction. The Hubei section of the West East Gas Pipeline 3 and the first phase of the Mongolian West Pipeline have been put into operation, while the main pipelines such as the China Russia East Line and the West East Gas Pipeline 1 have achieved interconnectivity. As of the end of 2023, the total length of natural gas long-distance pipelines reached 87000 kilometers. There are 29 in-service gas storage facilities (clusters) in China, with a peak shaving capacity of 23 billion cubic meters, accounting for 5.9% of domestic natural gas consumption. Six LNG receiving stations, including Xintian Tangshan and Tianjin Nangang, have been put into operation (including expansion), with a total new LNG receiving capacity of 18.8 million tons per year. As of the end of 2023, the total receiving capacity in China reached 116 million tons per year, surpassing 100 million tons for the first time.

展望2024年，受宏观经济稳步增长、国际气价下降、替代能源供应增加等因素影响，预计天然气消费量为4157亿立方米，增速6.1%。国内天然气产能建设稳步推进，产量将达2458亿立方米，增速4.5%。预计天然气进口量为1791亿立方米，增速8.2%。管道气方面，中俄东线进口能力持续提升，预计全年进口管道气726亿立方米，增速8.2%。LNG方面，受长协履约、接收站投产、国际气价回落等因素影响，预计全年进口LNG1064亿立方米，增速8.1%。

Looking forward to 2024, affected by factors such as steady macroeconomic growth, falling international gas prices and increasing alternative energy supply, it is estimated that natural gas consumption will be 415.7 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 6.1%. Domestic natural gas production capacity construction is progressing steadily, and the output will reach 245.8 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 4.5%. It is estimated that the import volume of natural gas will be 179.1 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 8.2%. In terms of pipeline gas, the import capacity of China-Russia East Line continues to improve. It is estimated that 72.6 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas will be imported throughout the year, with a growth rate of 8.2%. In terms of LNG, affected by factors such as the performance of the long-term association, the commissioning of the receiving station, and the drop in international gas prices, it is estimated that 106.4 billion cubic meters of LNG will be imported throughout the year, with a growth rate of 8.1%.

新能源替代 补能需求有增有减

The demand for new energy substitutes has increased and decreased

原油方面，2023年国际油价在“弱宏观（经济预期）”与“强基本（供给偏紧）”间博弈，欧佩克+及时有力度的减产政策是造成供需基本面收紧且扭转油价下滑局面的主要因素。其中，以沙特和俄罗斯为首的欧佩克+主动执行三轮减产，欧佩克+部分成员国宣布了规模达219.3万桶/日的自愿减产决议。

In terms of crude oil, in 2023, the international oil price will play a game between "weak macro (economic expectation)" and "strong basic (tight supply)", and OPEC + timely and powerful production reduction policy is the main factor that causes the tightening of supply and demand fundamentals and reverses the decline of oil prices. Among them, OPEC +, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, took the initiative to implement three rounds of production reduction, and some OPEC + members announced voluntary production reduction resolutions with a scale of 2.193 million barrels per day.

从国内来看，2023年10月25日，国家发展改革委等四部委联合发布《关于促进炼油行业绿色创新高质量发展的指导意见》，对炼油能力控制、产能布局优化、绿色低碳和智能化发展等方面进行了重点部署，为行业高质量发展指明了方向。其中，《意见》指出到2025年，国内原油一次加工能力控制在10亿吨以内。

Domestically, on October 25, 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting Green Innovation and High Quality Development of Refining Industry, which focused on refining capacity control, capacity layout optimization, green low-carbon and intelligent development, and pointed out the direction for the high-quality development of the industry. Among them, the Opinions pointed out that by 2025, the primary processing capacity of domestic crude oil will be controlled within 1 billion tons.

天然气方面，1月26日，美国宣布暂停对非自由贸易协定（non-FTA）国家出口的新LNG项目审批。目前，共有10个LNG出口项目等待美国能源部审批，合计产能为1.1亿吨/年。上述10个项目最早到2028年投产，短期内对全球LNG市场影响较小。若持续暂停审批，2028年后全球LNG供应或将低于此前预期，对中远期国际气价形成支撑。

In terms of natural gas, on January 26th, the United States announced that it would suspend the examination and approval of new LNG projects exported to non-FTA countries. At present, there are 10 LNG export projects waiting for approval by the US Department of Energy, with a total production capacity of 110 million tons/year. The above 10 projects will be put into production as early as 2028, which will have little impact on the global LNG market in the short term. If the approval is continuously suspended, the global LNG supply will be lower than previously expected after 2028, which will support the international gas price in the medium and long term.

2023年6月，国家发展改革委印发《关于建立健全天然气上下游价格联动机制的指导意见》，是国家层面首次就天然气终端价格联动机制出台的专项指导性文件，有助于进一步理顺和疏导终端环节价格，推动气价灵敏反映市场形势变化、发挥价格对供需的调节作用，引导资源合理供应，保障我国天然气供应安全。

In June 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Guiding Opinions on Establishing and Perfecting the Linkage Mechanism of Upstream and Downstream Prices of Natural Gas, which is the first special guiding document issued at the national level on the linkage mechanism of natural gas terminal prices, which is helpful to further rationalize and guide the terminal prices, promote the gas prices to sensitively reflect the changes in the market situation, give play to the role of price in regulating supply and demand, guide the rational supply of resources, and ensure the safety of China's natural gas supply.

新能源汽车方面，2023年，我国进一步针对新能源汽车发展存在的短板进行战略部署，出台了《关于延续和优化新能源汽车车辆购置税减免政策的公告》《关于进一步构建高质量充电基础设施体系的指导意见》等系列政策，进一步增强了新能源汽车发展预期。根据中国汽车工业协会数据，2023年新能源汽车销量为950万辆，再创历史新高。结合新能源汽车的行驶里程以及汽车能耗测算，2023年约替代成品油1700万吨，占汽油消费的10%以上。

In terms of new energy vehicles, in 2023, China further made strategic arrangements for the shortcomings in the development of new energy vehicles, and issued a series of policies such as "Announcement on Continuing and Optimizing the Purchase Tax Reduction Policy for New Energy Vehicles" and "Guiding Opinions on Further Building a High-quality Charging Infrastructure System", which further enhanced the development expectations of new energy vehicles. According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2023 was 9.5 million, a record high. Combined with the mileage of new energy vehicles and the calculation of automobile energy consumption, about 17 million tons of refined oil will be replaced in 2023, accounting for more than 10% of gasoline consumption.

随着中国交通运输结构和模式的转变，叠加新能源汽车的高速发展，中国的成品油消费已经步入低速增长阶段。其中，柴油已经达峰，预计在“公转铁”“公转水”以及商用卡车电动化、氢能化的推动下，柴油需求将稳中有降。

With the transformation of China's transportation structure and mode and the rapid development of new energy vehicles, China's refined oil consumption has entered a low-speed growth stage. Among them, diesel oil has reached its peak, and it is expected that the demand for diesel oil will decline steadily under the impetus of "Gongzhuan Railway", "Gongzhuan Water" and the electrification and hydrogen energy of commercial trucks.

2024年及以后，整体出行增量有限，汽油需求峰值将被拉近到2024—2025年。到2030年，预计新能源汽车保有量占比为近30%，对汽油形成规模化替代；预计2030年汽油消费量为1.45亿吨，较2023年减少1/10；2040年新能源汽车占比约60%。

In 2024 and beyond, the overall travel increment is limited, and the peak gasoline demand will be narrowed to 2024-2025. By 2030, it is estimated that the number of new energy vehicles will account for nearly 30%, forming a large-scale replacement for gasoline; It is estimated that gasoline consumption will be 145 million tons in 2030, which is 1/10 less than that in 2023; In 2040, new energy vehicles will account for about 60%.

随着人均收入提高以及航空运输设施完善，中国煤油需求增长空间仍较大。但中国铁路特别是高铁的快速发展，对航空用油的替代是巨大的，将降低煤油消费增长中枢。预计2030年煤油需求仅为5400万吨，虽比2023年高出50%，但远不及此前预期的6000万吨以上的规模，此后保持低速增长，直至2040年左右达峰。

With the increase in per capita income and the improvement of air transportation facilities, there is still a lot of room for growth in China's kerosene demand. However, the rapid development of China's railways, especially high-speed rail, has a huge impact on the substitution of aviation fuel, which will reduce the growth center of kerosene consumption. It is expected that the demand for kerosene will only be 54 million tons by 2030, which is 50% higher than 2023 but far below the previously expected scale of over 60 million tons. From then on, it will maintain a slow growth rate and reach its peak around 2040.