拉美化工业多重危机叠加

Overlapping Crises in Latin America's Petrochemical Industry

2026年，拉美化工行业仍将深陷多重危机叠加的困境。中东冲突推高运费与原料价格，多数大型企业预计将再度迎来业绩承压的一年。在墨西哥，化工企业同时面临全球化工周期下行、高杠杆债务以及结构性短板等多重压力。而在巴西，化工供应链出现了全新且难以预料的成本上涨压力，且持续多年的贸易保护争论也愈演愈烈。

In 2026, Latin America's chemical industry will remain mired in a superposition of multiple overlapping crises. The Middle East conflict is driving up freight costs and raw material prices, and most major enterprises are expected to face another year of earnings pressure. In Mexico, chemical companies are simultaneously grappling with the global chemical cycle downturn, high-leverage debt, and structural weaknesses. In Brazil, the chemical supply chain is facing new and unforeseen cost escalation pressures, while the long-standing debate over trade protectionism is intensifying.

墨西哥：化工巨头陷经营和债务困境

Mexico: Chemical Giants Trapped in Operational and Debt Distress

墨西哥化工巨头面临严峻的经营和债务困境，其中巴西布拉斯科公司与墨西哥Grupo Idesa合资的聚乙烯企业Braskem

Mexico's chemical giants face severe operational and debt difficulties, with Brazil's Brasco's polyethylene venture with Mexico's Grupo Idesa Braskem.

Idesa处境最为严峻。在多年利润被挤压、墨西哥国有石油公司Pemex乙烷供应长期不足后，该公司已提出债务重组方案，寻求至多7亿美元新增流动性。其困境也折射出墨西哥化工行业的顽疾：上游原料基础设施薄弱始终制约产业竞争力。

Idesa, in the most precarious position. After years of squeezed profits and chronic insufficient ethane supply from state-owned Pemex, the company has proposed a debt restructuring plan seeking up to $700 million in new liquidity. Its plight also reflects a chronic problem in Mexico's chemical industry: weak upstream feedstock infrastructure continues to hamper competitiveness.

墨西哥最大石化企业Alpek核心业务为聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)和精对苯二甲酸(PTA)，这两种产品受到来自亚洲的严重冲击，三大评级机构已将其评级下调至投资级以下。惠誉预计，其EBITDA利润率到2027年仅能恢复至6%左右，远低于历史中期水平。

Alpek, Mexico's largest petrochemical company, focuses on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) as its core businesses. These products have been severely impacted by competition from Asia, and the three major rating agencies have downgraded its rating below investment grade. Fitch expects its EBITDA margin to recover to only around 6% by 2027, far below historical mid-cycle levels.

墨西哥三大化工巨头中业务最多元的Orbia虽已推进战略转型，但其占比最大的聚氯乙烯(PVC)业务仍在大幅亏损，全球供应过剩局面短期难改。2025年公司净亏损3.59亿美元，仅氟化工、新能源、精密农业等板块表现强劲。

Orbia, the most diversified among Mexico's three chemical giants, has pushed forward a strategic transformation, but its largest segment, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), continues to incur significant losses, with global oversupply unlikely to improve in the short term. The company recorded a net loss of $359 million in 2025, with only its fluorochemicals, new energy, and precision agriculture segments performing strongly.

而笼罩在这三家企业乃至墨西哥整体工业经济之上的，是美墨加协定(USMCA)的重新谈判。墨西哥化工行业协会高管托斯卡诺在采访中表示：“2025至2026年，墨西哥经济前景又多了一重不确定性与拖累因素，那就是美墨加协定的重新谈判。在我们所处的产业链中，客户在制造、生产和出口方面仍存在相当大的不确定性。”墨西哥化工行业正积极游说，希望在续签后的协定中保留北美化工市场零关税、一体化的安排。对该行业而言，美墨加协定最终谈判结果可能并不亚于亚洲供应格局的变化。

Overhanging these three companies and Mexico's entire industrial economy is the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Toscano, an executive of the Mexican Chemical Industry Association, said in an interview: "Between 2025 and 2026, Mexico's economic outlook faces another layer of uncertainty and drag—the USMCA renegotiation. In our industrial chain, customers still face considerable uncertainty regarding manufacturing, production, and exports." The Mexican chemical industry is actively lobbying to preserve the zero-tariff, integrated North American chemical market arrangement in the renewed agreement. For the industry, the final outcome of the USMCA negotiations may be no less consequential than changes in Asia's supply landscape.

巴西：供应链面临成本上涨巨大压力

Brazil: Supply Chain Under Huge Cost Pressure

巴西是受中东冲突影响最严重的拉美经济体之一。短短三周内，这场冲突就让巴西化工企业供应链出现了全新且难以预料的成本上涨压力。巴西化工分销商协会会长鲁本斯·梅德拉诺表示，巴西化工分销商已经收到供应商通知，未来发货价格最高将上调30%，而当前集装箱运费报价已达到冲突前的两至三倍。

Brazil is one of the Latin American economies most severely affected by the Middle East conflict. Within just three weeks, the conflict has introduced new and unforeseen cost escalation pressures into Brazilian chemical companies' supply chains. Rubens Medrano, president of the Brazilian Chemical Distributors Association, said that Brazilian chemical distributors have received notices from suppliers of price increases of up to 30% for future shipments, while current container freight rates have reached two to three times pre-conflict levels.

由于霍尔木兹海峡事实上已被封锁，全球船用燃料成本暴涨30%～35%，巴西桑托斯港的船用燃料价格也随之上涨约25%。梅德拉诺表示：“这些成本最终会沿着产业链向下传导。”

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, global marine fuel costs have surged 30–35%, and bunker fuel prices at Brazil's Port of Santos have risen by about 25%. Medrano said: "These costs will ultimately be passed down the industrial chain."

除了运费之外，巴西化工生产商协会(Abiquim)还指出了更深层次的结构性风险。巴西虽是原油净出口国，但包括石脑油在内的成品油仍是净进口，而石脑油正是其化工行业的核心原料。这意味着，布伦特原油价格的持续上涨将直接推高巴西工业生产成本。不过，短期内最紧迫的问题还是化肥。巴西约85%的化肥依赖进口，而伊朗是全球尿素和氨的主要出口国。冲突爆发以来，巴西国内尿素价格涨幅已超过30%，这对该国体量庞大、影响力极强的农业板块将产生显著的连锁冲击。

Beyond freight costs, the Brazilian Chemical Industry Association (Abiquim) points to deeper structural risks. Although Brazil is a net crude oil exporter, it remains a net importer of refined products including naphtha, which is the core feedstock for its chemical industry. This means that sustained increases in Brent crude prices will directly raise Brazil's industrial production costs. However, the most pressing short-term issue is fertilizer. Brazil relies on imports for about 85% of its fertilizer, and Iran is a major exporter of urea and ammonia. Since the conflict broke out, domestic urea prices in Brazil have risen by more than 30%, which will have significant knock-on effects on the country's massive and highly influential agricultural sector.

贸易保护争论愈演愈烈

Intensifying Trade Protection Debate

这场冲突也重新点燃了巴西国内围绕化工产品贸易保护政策旷日持久且愈发激烈的争论。

The conflict has also rekindled the long-running and increasingly heated debate in Brazil over trade protection policies for chemical products.

代表本土生产商的巴西化工协会(Abiquim)对供应中断担忧予以明确反驳，并指出巴西国内有约40%的化工产能处于闲置状态，可作为应急战略储备。该协会首席执行官安德烈·帕索斯(Andre

The Brazilian Chemical Association (Abiquim), which represents local producers, has categorically refuted concerns about supply disruptions, noting that about 40 per cent of Brazil's domestic chemical production capacity is idle and could serve as a strategic reserve for emergencies. The Association's CEO, Andre Passos (Andre

Passos)表示：“这场冲突确实在全球范围内推高了成本，尤其是能源和化肥领域。但就化工品而言，巴西拥有充足的工业产能以保障市场供应。”

Andre Passos, CEO of Abiquim, said: "The conflict has indeed driven up costs globally, especially in energy and fertilizers. But for chemical products, Brazil has ample industrial capacity to ensure market supply."

然而，代表塑料加工企业的巴西塑料协会(Abiplast)却持完全不同的观点。该协会主席何塞·里卡多·罗里兹称，针对北美供应商的贸易保护措施，包括拟对美国和加拿大聚乙烯(PE)征收反倾销税，可能会切断巴西在全球供应动荡时期最需要的货源渠道。

However, Abiplast, representing plastic processors, holds a completely different view. Jose Ricardo Roriz, president of Abiplast, said that trade protection measures against North American suppliers, including proposed anti-dumping duties on polyethylene (PE) from the United States and Canada, could cut off Brazil's most needed supply channels during a period of global supply turmoil.