石化业稳中有忧

There are worries about the stability of the petrochemical industry

受疫情、地缘政治、下游需求疲软等影响，石化行业运行压力加大。

Affected by the epidemic, geopolitics and weak downstream demand, the petrochemical industry is under increasing pressure.

一季度，我国石油和化工行业经济运行总体平稳。全行业生产保持正常，对外贸易延续良好态势，投资增长平稳，营业收入和利润持续较快增长。但受疫情、地缘政治影响，全球经济明显放缓，需求表现疲软。原油、天然气等原材料价格大幅上涨，市场风险积聚，经济运行压力不断加大。

In the first quarter, China's petroleum and chemical industry economic operation is generally stable. Production in the whole industry remained normal, foreign trade maintained a sound momentum, investment grew steadily, and operating revenue and profit continued to grow rapidly. However, affected by the epidemic and geopolitics, the global economy has slowed down significantly and demand has been weak. Prices of crude oil, natural gas and other raw materials have risen sharply, posing mounting market risks and increasing pressure on the economy.

行业效益总体向好

The industry's overall performance improved

国家统计局数据显示，截至3月末，石油和化工行业规模以上企业28436家，增加值累计增长1.7%，较前两个月减缓0.9个百分点，低于全国工业增加值增幅4.8个百分点。其中，化学工业增加值增长4.1%，炼油业下降3.6%，石油和天然气开采业增长4.5%。

As of the end of March, 28,436 companies in the petroleum and chemical industry saw their added value increase by 1.7 percent, 0.9 percentage points slower than the previous two months and 4.8 percentage points slower than the national industrial added value growth, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The value added of the chemical industry rose by 4.1%, refining fell by 3.6% and oil and gas extraction rose by 4.5%.

1-3月，石化行业实现营业收入3.87万亿元，增长24.2%，占全国规模工业营业收入的12.4%。其中，化学工业营业收入2.27万亿元，增长22.9%;石油和天然气开采业营业收入3287.1亿元，增长40.4%。

From January to March, the petrochemical industry achieved operating revenue of 3.87 trillion yuan, up 24.2 percent, accounting for 12.4 percent of the national operating revenue of large-scale industries. Among them, the operating revenue of chemical industry was 2.27 trillion yuan, up 22.9%; Revenue from oil and gas exploitation reached 328.71 billion yuan, up 40.4%.

一季度，石化行业效益总体保持较好局面。但由于原油、天然气和煤炭等原材料价格的快速上涨，全行业利润增速开始放缓，上下游效益出现分化：全行业实现利润总额3544.6亿元，增长29.1%，占全国规模利润总额的18.1%;全行业营业收入利润率为9.17%，比上年同期上升0.35个百分点。

In the first quarter, petrochemical industry benefits generally maintain a good situation. However, due to the rapid rise in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, coal and other raw materials, the profit growth of the whole industry began to slow down, and the upstream and downstream benefits appeared divergence: the total profit of the whole industry reached 354.46 billion yuan, up 29.1%, accounting for 18.1% of the total scale profit of the country; The industry's operating income margin was 9.17 percent, up 0.35 percentage points from a year earlier.

一季度，原油和天然气价格一路攀升至2015年以来最高位，石油和天然气开采业利润大幅增长。截至3月末，石油和天然气开采业规模以上企业累计实现利润总额1030.5亿元，大幅增长154.6%;石油和天然气开采业营业收入利润率为31.35%，比上年同期大幅增长14.06个百分点。

Profits from oil and gas drilling surged in the first quarter as crude oil and natural gas prices climbed to their highest levels since 2015. By the end of March, the profits of enterprises with large scale in oil and natural gas exploitation reached 103.05 billion yuan, up 154.6 percent. The operating income margin for oil and gas extraction was 31.35%, up 14.06 percentage points from a year earlier.

化学工业效益保持良好态势。一季度，主要化学品市场价格保持高位震荡，效益延续上年良好态势，主要经济指标总体保持增长。但受原材料价格大幅上涨影响，细分行业市场开始出现分化，下游压力加大。截至3月末，化工行业规模以上企业累计实现利润总额1731.9亿元，增长13.4%。其中，基础化学原料和专用化学品制造利润总额分别增长26.8%和14.0%，肥料、农药制造利润总额分别增长100.8%、134.7%，合成材料、涂(颜)料制造、橡胶制品利润总额分别下降21.4%、12.4%和60.2%。一季度，化工行业营业收入利润率为8.66%，下降0.72个百分点。

The benefits of the chemical industry have maintained a good momentum. In the first quarter, the market prices of major chemicals remained high and shook, the benefits continued the good trend of last year, and the main economic indicators maintained overall growth. But by raw material prices rise significantly, market segmentation industry began to differentiate, downstream pressure increased. By the end of March, enterprises above designated size in the chemical industry had achieved a total profit of 173.19 billion yuan, up 13.4%. Among them, the total profits of manufacturing basic chemical raw materials and special chemicals increased by 26.8% and 14.0% respectively; the total profits of manufacturing fertilizers and pesticides increased by 100.8% and 134.7% respectively; the total profits of manufacturing synthetic materials, coating materials and rubber products decreased by 21.4%, 12.4% and 60.2% respectively. In the first quarter, the profit margin of chemical industry operating revenue was 8.66%, down 0.72 percentage points.

据国家统计局数据，一季度，行业投资总体保持较快增长，但上下游明显分化。

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, industry investment overall maintained rapid growth, but the upstream and downstream clearly differentiated.

一季度，行业对外贸易保持较快增长，但增速有所放缓。

In the first quarter, the industry's foreign trade maintained a rapid growth, but the growth rate slowed down.

生产平稳 消费疲软

Production is stable and consumption is weak

一季度，能源和主要化学品生产保持基本平稳。全国原油天然气总产量1.02亿吨(油当量)，增长5.5%，增速较前两个月下滑0.2个百分点;主要化学品总量增长约2.3%，加快0.5个百分点。

In the first quarter, the production of energy and major chemicals remained basically stable. The total output of crude oil and natural gas was 102 million tons (oil equivalent), up 5.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous two months. The total volume of major chemicals increased by about 2.3%, up 0.5 percentage points.

原油生产增速加快，天然气生产有所放缓。1-3月，全国原油产量5118.9万吨，增长4.4%，增速创近10年历史同期新高;天然气产量596.5亿立方米，增幅6.6%，较上年同期回落6.7个百分点。原油加工量1.71亿吨，下降1.5%;成品油产量(汽、煤、柴油合计)9342.0万吨，增长10.4%，比上年同期回落0.7个百分点。

Crude oil production growth accelerated and natural gas production slowed. In the first three months of this year, China's crude oil output reached 51.189 million tons, up 4.4 percent, the highest growth rate in the past decade. Natural gas output reached 59.65 billion cubic meters, up 6.6% and 6.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Crude oil processing volume was 171 million tons, down 1.5%; The output of refined oil products (gasoline, coal and diesel combined) was 934.2 million tons, up 10.4% and 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

重点化学品产量保持平稳增长。1-3月，全国乙烯产量723.7万吨，增长0.9%;硫酸产量2322.3万吨，下降2.2%;烧碱产量954.8万吨，下降0.2%;纯碱产量711.1万吨，下降1.5%;合成树脂2850.3万吨，增长2.2%。此外，轮胎外胎产量2.1亿条，下降3.7%。

Steady growth was maintained in the output of key chemicals. From January to March, the national ethylene output was 7.237 million tons, up 0.9%; Sulfuric acid output was 23.223 million tons, down 2.2 percent; The output of caustic soda was 9.548 million tons, down 0.2%; Soda ash output was 7.11 million tons, down 1.5%; Synthetic resin 28.503 million tons, up 2.2%. In addition, the production of 210 million tire tires, down 3.7%.

农用化学品生产基本稳定。1-3月，全国化肥总产量(折纯，下同)1357.4万吨，增长3.3%;农药原药产量(折100%)62.1万吨，下降0.5%。

The production of agricultural chemicals was basically stable. From January to March, China's total fertilizer output was 13.574 million tons, up 3.3 percent. The output of active pesticide (100 percent discounted) was 621,000 tons, down 0.5 percent.

一季度，国内能源和主要化学品消费动力不足，持续下降。原油天然气表观消费总量2.64亿吨(油当量)，下降2.9%，降幅较前两个月扩大1.9个百分点;主要化学品消费增速下降0.9%，扩大0.8个百分点。

In the first quarter, domestic consumption of energy and major chemicals lacked impetus and continued to decline. Total apparent consumption of crude oil and natural gas was 264 million tons (oil equivalent), down 2.9%, or 1.9 percentage points more than in the previous two months. The growth rate of consumption of major chemicals decreased by 0.9% and expanded by 0.8 percentage points.

原油消费降幅扩大，天然气需求增长乏力，汽煤柴消费出现分化。1-3月，国内原油表观消费量1.79亿吨，同比下降4.8%，较前两个月扩大2.5个百分点，对外依存度71.4%;天然气表观消费量944.55亿立方米，增幅1.5%，为近10年来最低增速，对外依存度39.7%。一季度，国内成品油表观消费量8789.7万吨，增长21.4%，增幅较1-2月加快1.2个百分点。

The decline of crude oil consumption is expanding, the growth of natural gas demand is weak, and the consumption of steam, coal and wood is differentiated. From January to March, apparent domestic crude oil consumption was 179 million tons, down 4.8% year on year and 2.5 percentage points higher than the previous two months. External dependence was 71.4%. Apparent consumption of natural gas reached 94.455 billion cubic meters, up 1.5%, the lowest growth rate in nearly a decade. In the first quarter, China's apparent consumption of refined oil products reached 87.897 million tons, up 21.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from January to February.

基础化学原料和合成材料消费持续下降。1-3月，基础化学原料表观消费总量下降1.7%，降幅较前两个月收窄0.5个百分点。其中，无机化学原料表观消费量下降4.4%，有机化学原料表观消费量增长2.9%。一季度，合成材料表观消费总量约5685.9万吨，下降2.4%，较前两个月扩大2.3个百分点。

Consumption of basic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials continued to decline. In the first three months of this year, the total apparent consumption of basic chemical raw materials decreased by 1.7 percent, which narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous two months. Among them, the apparent consumption of inorganic chemical raw materials decreased by 4.4%, while that of organic chemical raw materials increased by 2.9%. In the first quarter, the total apparent consumption of synthetic materials was 56.859 million tons, down 2.4 percent and 2.3 percentage points higher than the previous two months.

化肥需求旺盛。1-3月，全国化肥表观消费总量1357.6万吨，增长8.0%。

Fertilizer is in high demand. From January to March, the total amount of fertilizer apparent consumption was 13.576 million tons, up 8.0 percent.

价格总水平高位波动

The general level of prices fluctuates high

一季度，石油和主要化学品市场高位震荡，价格总水平继续上升。国家统计局价格指数显示，3月，石油和天然气开采业出厂价格同比大幅上涨47.4%，环比上涨14.1%;化学原料和化学品制造业出厂价格同比上涨15.7%，环比上涨1.8%。一季度，石油和天然气开采业出厂价格同比上涨42.8%，化学原料和化学品制造业涨幅18.7%。

In the first quarter, the oil and major chemicals market high volatility, the overall price level continued to rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics' price index, producer prices for oil and natural gas production surged 47.4 percent year on year in March and 14.1 percent month-on-month. The ex-factory prices of chemical raw materials and chemicals rose 15.7 percent year-on-year and 1.8 percent month-on-month. In the first quarter, the ex-factory prices of oil and gas extraction rose by 42.8% year-on-year, while those of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing rose by 18.7%.

国际原油市场：受俄乌冲突、疫情等因素影响，国际原油价格一路攀升，不断刷新近几年新高。监测数据显示，一季度，WTI均价为94.49美元/桶，同比上涨63.49%;布伦特原油均价101.41美元/桶，同比上涨67.20%;迪拜原油均价95.56美元/桶，同比上涨59.24%;胜利原油均价98.06美元/桶，同比上涨57.24%。由于疫情、地缘冲突、极端天气等因素影响，2022年原油市场将呈现更大的不确定性、不稳定性。

International crude oil market: Affected by the russia-Ukraine conflict, the epidemic and other factors, the international crude oil price has been climbing, constantly breaking new highs in recent years. Monitoring data show that in the first quarter, the average price of WTI was 94.49 USD/barrel, up 63.49% year on year; Brent crude averaged $101.41 / BBL, up 67.20% year on year; Dubai crude averaged $95.56 / BBL, up 59.24% year on year; The average price of Shengli crude oil was $98.06 / BBL, up 57.24% year-on-year. Due to the epidemic, geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather and other factors, the oil market will be more uncertain and unstable in 2022.

基础化学原料市场：一季度，受原材料价格影响，国内基础化学原料市场价格维持在高位运行。总体看，有机化学原料涨势强于无机原料。市场监测显示，3月，46种主要无机化学原料中市场均价同比上涨44种，占95.7%，比上月增加1种;环比上涨30种，占65.2%，与上月持平。在87种主要有机化学原料中，同比上涨69种，占79.3%，较上月减少4种;环比上涨58种，占66.7%，较上月减少10种。二季度，基础化学原料市场需求将保持相对疲软，价格上涨动力将有所放缓。随着原油价格持续在高位运行，有机化学原料成本压力加大，上游基础性产品价格有可能继续高位运行趋势，但下游受制于需求疲软，价格总体将有所回落，市场继续分化。

Basic chemical raw material market: In the first quarter, affected by raw material prices, the domestic market prices of basic chemical raw materials maintained a high level. Overall, organic chemicals are stronger than inorganic materials. Market monitoring shows that in March, the average market price of 46 kinds of main inorganic chemical raw materials rose by 44 kinds year-on-year, accounting for 95.7%, an increase of 1 kind compared with last month; On a month-on-month basis, 30 items increased, accounting for 65.2%, the same as last month. Among 87 kinds of main organic chemical raw materials, 69 kinds increased year on year, accounting for 79.3%, decreased by 4 kinds compared with last month; On a monthly basis, 58 items increased, accounting for 66.7%, 10 items less than last month. In the second quarter, the demand of basic chemical raw materials market will remain relatively weak, and the driving force of price increase will slow down. As crude oil prices continue to run at a high level, organic chemical raw material cost pressure increases, upstream basic product prices are likely to continue to run at a high level, but downstream due to weak demand, the overall price will fall, the market continues to differentiate.

责任编辑：郑 丹

Editor in charge: Zheng Dan