中泰证券戴志锋：银行延期还本付息政策跟踪与展望

Dai Zhifeng, Zhongtai Securities: Bank deferred debt service policy tracking and outlook

2020年和本轮延期还本付息政策对比：1、相同点：均是疫情期间的过渡工具。延期还本付息贷款是2020年疫情期间首次推出的临时政策性工具，意在缓释疫情对小微企业经营冲击压力。第一批政策工具在2021年底到期，但今年疫情再度爆发，支持政策重提。2、不同点：1)本轮延期还本付息新增了对居民群体的覆盖。在小微企业和个体工商户基础上，本轮延期还本付息贷款范围拓展至受疫情严重的个人群体，明确将货车司机贷款纳入了延期还贷的人群名单之中。2)目前尚无统一性的政策执行时间要求，以各地、各机构自主执行落地为主。个别省市央行和银行对当前延期还本政策有效期暂定在6个月。

1. Similarities: Both are transitional tools during the epidemic. Deferred debt service is a temporary policy tool introduced for the first time during the epidemic period in 2020, aiming to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on small and micro businesses. The first set of policy tools expired at the end of 2021, but the resurgence of the epidemic this year has supported the policy renewal. 2. Differences: 1) The coverage of resident groups has been added in this round of delayed debt repayment. On the basis of small and micro businesses and individual businesses, this round of deferred debt repayment loans will be extended to individuals seriously affected by the epidemic, and truck drivers' loans will be included in the list of people who have deferred loans. 2) At present, there is no uniform time requirement for policy implementation, which is mainly implemented independently by local governments and institutions. The central banks and banks of some provinces and cities have tentatively set the period of validity of the current postponement policy at 6 months.

2020年延期还本付息贷款的相关情况及对银行影响。1、规模占比：高峰期余额占比总贷款不足1.5%，且随复工复产余额占比逐季走低。以招商银行为例，1H20延期还本付息余额最高为 695.32 亿元，占比总贷款1.43%。随着疫情好转和企业复工复产后，部分企业已经开始正常还款，招行延期还本付息贷款的余额和占比均逐季走低，截至2021年底，占比总贷款仅为0.03%。2、对银行收入端：延期还本居多，基本没有影响。从各地实践看，3个工作日内还旧借新和无还本续贷是主要延期方式。各类主体主要办理的本金延期，对于申请利息延期的主体占比极少，对银行利息收入基本没有影响。3、对银行资产质量的影响：银行会评估企业实际经营情况，最终产生不良的比例较低。银行对企业是否实行延期还本政策，还会考虑企业是否在延期过程中发生经营实质性变化、是否将信贷资金用于生产经营等因素。据统计，一大行延期还本的不良贷款占其全部延期还本付息贷款的近8%，但占该行全部贷款余额的比例仅不到0.1%。

The situation of deferred debt service and interest loan in 2020 and its impact on banks. 1. Proportion of scale: the proportion of the balance in the peak period is less than 1.5% of the total loan, and the proportion decreases quarter by quarter with the resumption of work and production. Take China Merchants Bank as an example, the highest deferred balance of 1H20 is 69.532 billion yuan, accounting for 1.43% of the total loans. With the improvement of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production of enterprises, some enterprises have started to pay back their debts normally. The balance and proportion of deferred debt service loans of CMB have decreased quarter by quarter, accounting for only 0.03% of the total loans by the end of 2021. 2, on the income side of the bank: the majority of deferred repayment, basically no impact. From the practice of various places, the main way of extension is to return the old loan within 3 working days and renew the loan without paying the principal. The principal extension mainly handled by various subjects accounts for a very small proportion of subjects applying for interest extension and has no impact on bank interest income. 3. Impact on bank asset quality: The bank will evaluate the actual operation of the enterprise, and the proportion of non-performing enterprises is relatively low. The bank will also consider whether the enterprise has substantial business changes during the extension process and whether the credit funds are used for production and operation. According to statistics, one bank's deferred non-performing loans accounted for nearly 8% of its total deferred loans, but accounted for less than 0.1% of the bank's total loan balance.

本轮延期还本付息政策的影响评估。1、规模体量。预计本次延期还本付息规模居民端体量较小；普惠小微端参考20年的高峰值计算、预计为3万亿。2、对银行营收端影响：普惠小微延期还本付息对银行收入端基本没有影响；居民端相关房贷、消费贷延期还本付息考虑不同还款方式可能会导致银行收入增长产生延后，但由于体量较小、整体影响有限。3、对银行资产质量：总规模有限、预计不会产生明显影响，银行出于审慎原则关注类占比或小幅微升。当前银行整体不良认定较为严格，大多银行逾期贷款全部计入关注或不良贷款，因此部分银行在执行延期政策时已对客户进行风险分类。

Impact assessment of this round of delayed debt service and interest policy. 1. Scale and volume. It is expected that the resident end of the delayed debt service scale is small; Based on the 20-year peak value of the Pratt & Whitney microterminal, it is estimated to be 3 trillion. 2. Impact on the revenue end of the bank: The delayed repayment of principal and interest of PRATT & Whitney has basically no impact on the revenue end of the bank; Considering the deferment of principal and interest of residential related mortgages and consumer loans in different repayment methods may lead to the delay of income growth of banks, but due to the small volume, the overall impact is limited. 3. On bank asset quality: the total scale is limited and is not expected to have a significant impact. Banks may pay attention to the proportion of categories or increase slightly due to the principle of prudence. At present, the overall non-performing identification of banks is relatively strict, and all overdue loans of most banks are counted as concerned or non-performing loans. Therefore, some banks have classified customers' risks when implementing the extension policy.

资产质量影响相关测算：极端假设下，对2022年上市银行不良率最大影响幅度在0.3%、总体在可控区间。假设相对极致：1、延期还本余额假设体量较大。上述测算基于22年普惠小微贷款余额增速25%、延期还本付息贷款余额占比全口径普惠小微贷款余额15%的假设，而根据20年实践，延期贷款余额占比随经济恢复下行较快、行业整体要低于假设值。2、不良比例假设较高。假设延期还本付息贷款中，有20%的贷款产生实质不良；而根据上一轮实践，延期还本付息贷款中产生实质不良的比例不超过1.5%。

Calculation of the impact of asset quality: Under extreme assumptions, the maximum impact on the non-performing rate of listed banks in 2022 is 0.3%, which is generally within a controllable range. The assumptions are relatively extreme: 1. The postponement balance is assumed to have a large volume. The above calculation is based on the assumption that the balance of inclusive small and micro loans increased by 25% in 22 years, and the balance of deferred loans accounted for 15% of the balance of full-bore inclusive small and micro loans. However, according to the practice in 20 years, the balance of deferred loans declined rapidly with the economic recovery, and the industry as a whole was lower than the assumed value. 2, the bad proportion hypothesis is high. Assume that 20% of deferred debt service loans are materially non-performing; According to the previous round of practice, the proportion of deferred debt service loans that produce substantial non-performing loans is no more than 1.5%.

投资建议：继续看好银行板块；选择成长确定强的标的。市场风险偏好下降利于低估值的银行板块，稳增长预期会继续推动银行板块。选股要选资产端强、资产质量扎实的银行(需求下降；经济面临压力)。我们重点关注的是行业和区域布局较好的城农商行板块，考虑到估值因素，建议近期关注江苏、南京和苏州。

Investment advice: continue to look good on the banking sector; Choose growth to determine strong targets. The market risk appetite decline in favor of low valuation of the banking sector, steady growth expectations will continue to drive the banking sector. Stock selection to choose asset end strong, solid asset quality of the bank (demand decline; The economy is under pressure). We focus on the urban rural commercial bank sector with a good industry and regional layout. Considering the valuation factor, we suggest focusing on Jiangsu, Nanjing and Suzhou in the near future.

风险提示事件：经济下滑超预期。疫情影响超预期。

Risk alert event: economic downturn more than expected. The impact of the epidemic has exceeded expectations.

（文章来源：中泰证券研究）

(Source: Zhongtai Securities Research)