中金公司：市场化改革打开售用电IT第二成长曲线

CICC: Market-oriented reform opens the second growth curve of IT for electricity sales

市场化改革之前，售用电IT以电网营销系统为主，行业短期增长点在于营销2.0落地。长期来看，市场化改革驱动售用电IT向广阔新场景延伸，供给侧、传输侧、售电侧主体新IT需求点涌现，我们看好产业链相关公司。

Before the market-oriented reform, the power grid marketing system was the main IT for selling electricity, and the short-term growth point of the industry lies in the landing of Marketing 2.0. In the long run, the market-oriented reform drives the IT of electricity sales to extend to a broad new scene, and new IT demand points emerge on the supply side, transmission side and electricity sales side. We are optimistic about the related companies in the industrial chain.

摘要

Summary

市场化改革前夜，售用电IT以电网营销系统为主线。(1)行业洞察、服务与客户资源为营销IT厂商竞争关键；(2)基于行业壁垒，朗新科技与国网信通之间差异化竞争。国网信通作为国网体系内公司，客户壁垒高筑，而朗新深度参与12个省网营销IT建设，数字化团队超过2,500人，在服务层面打造护城河；(3)电力营销IT短期增长点在于营销2.0落地。营销2.0总投资有望达到80亿元，以“微服务+中台化”打破1.0系统的封闭性。

On the eve of market-oriented reform, the IT of selling electricity takes the power grid marketing system as the main line. (1) Industry insight, service and customer resources are the key to the competition of marketing IT manufacturers; (2) Based on industry barriers, there is differentiated competition between Langxin Technology and State Grid ICT. As a company in the State Grid system, State Grid ICT has high customer barriers, while Langxin is deeply involved in the IT construction of network marketing in 12 provinces, with more than 2,500 digital teams, creating a moat at the service level; (3) The short-term growth point of power marketing IT lies in the landing of Marketing 2.0. The total investment of Marketing 2.0 is expected to reach 8 billion yuan, breaking the closure of 1.0 system with "micro-service + China-Taiwan".

市场化改革将售用电IT从狭义营销系统延展到广阔场景，赛道进入第二成长曲线。(1)随着电力供给中新能源增加，风能、太阳能的高波动性加大了电网供需失衡，电力市场化改革成为消纳新能源的有力手段，以价格为信号平滑负荷曲线；(2)市场化改革重塑发电厂、电网、售电公司等参与方的业态，带来新痛点的同时催生了新的IT需求；(3)借助市场化东风，电力产业价值链条中的新场景涌现，售用电IT行业进入第二成长曲线。

Market-oriented reform extends electricity sales IT from narrow marketing system to broad scene, and the track enters the second growth curve. (1) With the increase of new energy in power supply, the high volatility of wind energy and solar energy increases the imbalance between supply and demand of power grid, and the reform of power marketization has become a powerful means to consume new energy, smoothing the load curve with price as a signal; (2) Market-oriented reform reshapes the formats of participants such as power plants, power grids and power sales companies, bringing new pain points and giving birth to new IT needs; (3) With the help of marketization, new scenes emerged in the value chain of power industry, and the IT industry of electricity sales entered the second growth curve.

市场化浪潮下售电IT如何投资？我们认为售电IT短期/长期投资重心分别为发电交易辅助决策系统/电网营销系统与售电IT，赛道高弹性板块轮动，电网大B侧IT延续传统电力IT投资逻辑，赛道龙头优势依然稳固，发电/售电小B侧新场景为优质初创公司带来机会。(1)供给侧交易辅助决策IT协助发电厂完成报价预测与决策，考虑到发电厂强付费能力以及报价预测的刚需属性，我们认为该赛道在市场化浪潮中率先受益；(2)电网侧，电网回归输配电本源，根据德勤测算，深圳电网在市场化改革后的2017年毛利润减少约10亿元，营销IT需要延伸服务链以探索新增长点。另外，伴随着现货市场放开，电力数据采集频率提升，结算复杂度增加，电网营销IT有望在中期核心受益；(3)需求侧，长期来看，随着百万量级工商业用户涌入市场，售电公司客户大扩容，对标证券行业，我们预计售电公司有望配置专业交易系统来应对交易痛点，2030年售电IT空间有望达到80亿元。

How to invest in selling electricity IT under the tide of marketization. We believe that the short-term/long-term investment focus of electricity sales IT is power generation transaction auxiliary decision-making system/power grid marketing system and electricity sales IT respectively. The track has high elastic plate rotation, the big B-side IT of the power grid continues the traditional power IT investment logic, the leading advantage of the track is still stable, and the new scene of power generation/electricity sales small B-side brings opportunities for high-quality start-ups. (1) Supply-side transaction assistant decision-making IT assists power plants to complete quotation prediction and decision-making. Considering the strong payment ability of power plants and the just-needed attribute of quotation prediction, we believe that the track will take the lead in benefiting from the marketization wave; (2) On the power grid side, the power grid returns to the origin of transmission and distribution. According to Deloitte's calculation, the gross profit of Shenzhen Power Grid will decrease by about 1 billion yuan in 2017 after the market-oriented reform. Marketing IT needs to extend the service chain to explore new growth points. In addition, with the liberalization of the spot market, the frequency of power data collection increases and the complexity of settlement increases, and power grid marketing IT is expected to benefit from the core in the medium term; (3) On the demand side, in the long run, with the influx of millions of industrial and commercial users into the market, the customers of power sales companies have expanded greatly. For the benchmark securities industry, we expect that power sales companies are expected to configure professional trading systems to cope with trading pain points, and the IT space for power sales is expected to reach 8 billion yuan in 2030.

风险

Risk

电力市场化改革推进不及预期；电网投资不及预期。

The reform of electricity marketization has not advanced as expected; Power grid investment fell short of expectations.

（文章来源：中金点睛）

(Source: CICC finishing touch)