房地产市场有望稳步复苏

The property market is expected to recover steadily.

经历了持续低迷，部分城市房地产市场在今年年初呈现成交量增、价格企稳的回暖迹象。如何看待一些城市房地产市场的复苏？房地产市场调控政策还可从哪些方面进一步优化？

After a continuous downturn, the real property market if recovery at the the real estate market control policies be further optimized?

部分城市市场回暖

Some urban markets are picking up

国家统计局城市司首席统计师绳国庆介绍，1月份，70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅和二手住宅销售价格环比上涨城市分别有36个和13个，比上月分别增加21个和6个。一线城市商品住宅销售价格环比转涨、二三线城市环比降势趋缓；一线城市商品住宅销售价格同比上涨、二三线城市同比下降。

Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the Urban Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing market. The sales price of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased month-on-month, and the decline in second-and third-tier cities slowed down month-on-month.

上海房地产科学研究院院长严荣表示，当前房地产市场运行状况有所改善，具体表现为市场信心总体在增强，房地产开发投资额和商品房销售面积的降幅逐步收窄，部分城市住房租赁市场和二手房市场成交量有所增加。

Yan Rong, president of Shanghai Real Estate Research Institute, the gradual narrowing of the decline in investment in real estate development and the sales area of commercial housing, and the increase in the turnover of housing rental market and second-hand housing market in some cities.

贝壳研究院首席市场分析师许小乐认为，当前二手房市场处于修复阶段，表现在交易量出现恢复性增长。贝壳研究院数据显示，2月前两周重点监测的50城二手房日均成交量较1月份同期水平提高约90%，节后两周的成交水平超过去年同期约40%。

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that the current second-hand housing market is in the restoration stage, which is manifested in the recovery growth of transaction volume. According to the data of RealData, and the turnover level in the two weeks after the holiday exceeded that in the same period last year by about 40%.

国海证券政策和地产首席分析师夏磊认为，二手房市场回暖相对明显，分城市看，一线城市春节后成交量增多，同比看，广深企稳速度较快；北京成交量也较为活跃；部分二线城市市场修复较为明显，如南京二手房市场明显回暖，天津、石家庄等城市也在恢复；三四线城市呈现结构性恢复的特点，企稳回升集中在部分三四线城市。

Xia Lei, chief analyst of Guohai Securities Policy and Real Estate, believes that the recovery of the second-hand housing market is relatively obvious. In terms of cities, Compared with the same period of last year, Guangzhou and Shenzhen stabilized rapidly; Trading volume in Beijing is also relatively active; The market repair of some second-tier cities is more obvious. For example, the second-hand housing market in Nanjing has obviously recovered, and cities such as Tianjin and Shijiazhuang are also recovering; Third-and fourth-tier cities are characterized by structural recovery, with stabilization and recovery concentrated in some third-and fourth-tier cities.

专家表示，部分城市房地产市场回暖，表明“保交楼”支持政策、金融支持房地产行业平稳健康发展政策及各地因城施策调整优化调控政策都在显现效果。供给端，“三箭齐发”支持房企融资后，一些企业资金链吃紧状况正慢慢改善；需求端，各地积极支持刚需和改善性住房需求，通过优化限购、限贷等限制性措施，出台购房补贴、降首付、降购房贷款利率等举措，对促进住房合理消费起到积极作用。

Experts said that the recovery of the property market in some cities indicates that the support policy of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", the policy of financial support for the stable and healthy development , and the adjustment, optimization and control policies of various cities are all showing results. On the supply side, after the "three arrows" support the financing of housing enterprises, the tight capital chain of some enterprises is slowly improving; all localities actively support the demand forimproved housing, and introduce measures such as housing subsidies, down payment and interest rate reduction by optimizing restrictive measures such as purchase restriction and loan restriction, which play a positive role in promoting rational housing consumption.

市场分化将加剧

Market differentiation will intensify

当前，房地产市场政策暖风频吹，一二线城市成交量出现回升态势。国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所副研究员王瑞民认为，就此判断楼市总体明显企稳还言之尚早。严荣也认为，部分城市增加的成交量中有一定比例是前期累积需求的释放，部分有改善需求的购房者还在期待更有力的政策支持。

At present, the warm wind of real estate market policy is blowing frequently, Wang Ruimin, an associate researcher at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that it is still too early to judge that the overall property market has stabilized obviously. Yan Rong also believes that a certain proportion of the increased transaction volume in some cities is the release of accumulated demand in the early stage, with improved demand are still looking forward to stronger policy support.

对于今年全年房地产市场走势，许小乐认为，当前我国经济和居民收入正在逐步修复。在前期政策支持下，预计市场能够在去年基础上温和复苏，缓解库存压力，价格总体能够保持平稳。

Regarding the trend of the property market this year, Xu Xiaole believes that China's economy and residents' income are gradually being repaired. With the support of previous policies, ease the inventory pressure, and the overall price will remain stable.

严荣认为，今年房地产市场总体有望呈现稳步复苏态势，但市场分化将加剧。全国房地产开发投资和商品房销售面积有望实现正增长，为宏观经济增长提供更加坚实支撑。但是，不同城市表现或将有差异。北京、上海、深圳、杭州、成都等热点城市复苏程度将更为明显，大多数中小城市楼市还将面临一定下行压力。

Yan Rong believes that the real estate market is expected to show a steady recovery this year, but the market differentiation will intensify. The national real estate development investment and commercial housing sales area are expected to achieve positive growth, . However, the performance of different cities may be different. The recovery degree of hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chengdu will be more obvious, and the property market of most small and medium-sized cities will also face certain downward pressure.

从成交看，长三角、珠三角、成渝区域内重点城市修复较好。一方面，防疫政策调整后，人们出行更方便，早期观望情绪减弱；同时，限制性调控政策优化、房贷利率降低，有助于降低购房成本、促进住房需求释放。整体看，这类利好更容易在经济、人口、产业等基本面较好的区域释放出来。

From the transaction point of view, the key cities in Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing region have been well repaired. On the one hand, after the adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy, people travel more conveniently, and the early wait-and-see mood weakens; On the whole, such benefits are easier to be released in areas with better fundamentals such as economy, population and industry.

严荣认为，当前市场风险总体可控，但仍需高度重视个别城市或部分市场主体的风险隐患。尤其需要警惕，个别企业再度出现资金链断裂、延迟交付的状况，从而影响社会对房地产市场复苏的信心。同时，更多城市步入存量房时代，随着全国住房总量不断增长，人均住房建筑面积显著增加，越来越多的城市二手房交易成交占比将稳步上升。

Yan Rong believes that the current market risks are generally controllable, but it is still necessary to attach great importance to the potential risks of individual cities or some market players. In particular, we need to be vigilant. Individual enterprises, thus affecting the confidence of society in the recovery of the property market. At the same time, more cities have entered the era of stock houses. With the continuous growth of the total housing volume in China, the per capita housing construction area has increased significantly, in more and more cities will increase steadily.

仍需进一步增信心

There is still a need to further increase confidence

为更好发挥房地产稳定宏观经济的作用，还应持续优化房地产调控举措，积极促进房地产市场企稳回升，确保房地产市场平稳发展。具体看，还要因城施策，着力改善预期，扩大有效需求，支持落实生育政策和人才政策。特别是加大对改善性住房需求的支持力度，更好发挥金融对房地产支持作用，进一步降低刚需和改善性购房需求的购房成本等。

In order to give full play to the role of real estate in stabilizing macro-economy, we should continue to optimize real estate regulation and control measures, actively promote the stabilization and recovery of the property market, and ensure the steady development of the real estate market. In particular, we should increase support for improved housing demand, give full play to the role of finance in supporting real estate, and further reduce the purchase cost of just-needed and improved housing demand.

严荣建议，促进房地产市场企稳回升，要注重稳预期、增信心。一方面，要充分发挥有为政府和有效市场作用，尽早实现房地产开发投资增速由负转正，为增强市场预期夯实基础。另一方面，要更加注重精准施策，特别是聚焦释放刚性和改善性住房需求，打通影响需求释放的政策堵点，推出效果更好的政策举措。

Yan Rong suggested that to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real property market, we should pay attention to stabilizing expectations and increasing confidence. On the one hand, it is necessary to give full play to the role of promising government and effective market, realize the growth rate of real estate development investment from negative to positive as soon as possible, and lay a solid foundation for enhancing market expectations. On the other hand, we should pay more attention to precise policies, especially focus on releasing rigid and improved housing demand, break through policy blocking points that affect demand release, and launch better policy measures.

夏磊认为，对于一线城市而言，限购和限贷政策是影响购房需求的主要因素。首套房认定标准、普宅非普宅的界定标准是否会调整广受关注。二线城市方面，首付比例、首套房认定标准，根据市场形势变化，应该还有调整空间。三四线城市方面，限购限贷等调控政策已比较宽松，收购商品房作为保障性租赁住房或是新的需求提振点。

Xia Lei believes that for first-tier cities, the policies of purchase restriction and loan restriction are the main factors affecting the demand for house purchase. Whether the identification standard of the first suite and the definition standard of ordinary residence or not will be adjusted is widely concerned. In second-tier cities, there should be room for adjustment of down payment ratio and first suite identification standard according to changes in market situation. In third-and fourth-tier cities, the control policies such as purchase restriction and loan restriction have been relatively loose, and the acquisition of commercial housing is used as affordable rental housing or a new demand boosting point.

许小乐建议，政策仍然要进一步促进市场信心恢复。一是保持已出台政策的稳定性，确保市场预期平稳修复。二是加大对改善性住房消费的支持力度。当前包括一线城市在内的重点城市限购、首套房认定等方面仍有优化空间。

Xu Xiaole suggested that policies should further promote the recovery of market confidence. First, maintain the stability of the issued policies and ensure the smooth repair of market expectations. At present, there is still room for optimization in key cities, including first-tier cities, such as purchase restriction and first suite identification.